As stock prices continue to rise and the valuation band for stocks is stretched further, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research continues to show that corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners are increasingly defensive. Is it time to run for exits? Likely no. But stock prices won't go up forever, so a sense of caution does seem to be warranted. And that is what insiders are clearly telling us.

Stocks rallied Thursday after Wednesday's selloff. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.5% in November - matching expectations. This follows a 1.0% decline in October. The housing market and labor indicators weakened while new manufacturing orders held steady, pointing to stagnating growth. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq was up 1.3%. Crude oil traded near $74 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $2058 per ounce.

The equity markets got smoked again on Tuesday, bonds continue their steep descent, perma-bulls still see a fourth-quarter rally, and perma-bears are out in force pumping their fists. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell to a new pullback low, dropping 1.4%. The index is off almost 8% from its July 31 closing high. The Nasdaq fell 1.9% and made a slightly lower low, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped 1.8% but did not make a new low.

After the Fed Finishes

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its latest Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and, as expected, raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%. This was a tricky one for the central bank, as inflation remains elevated (perhaps arguing for a larger rate increase) while the financial system has shown signs of cracking (perhaps arguing for a rate cut in order to ease pressure on regional banks). This was the ninth increase since the central bank lowered the fed funds rate to the rock-bottom level of 0.00%-0.25% early in the pandemic. All 12 governors were in agreement about the hike, as inflation remains elevated (the latest core CPI reading was 5.5% and the latest core PCE Price Index reading was 4.7%). In a press release announcing the hike, the Fed softened its language, shifting from “ongoing” rate hikes to an “appropriate” stance. Looking ahead, we think the central bank is on track for one more 25-basis-point rate hike in 1H23 before moving to the sidelines, likely for the balance of the year. We remain concerned that the Fed is tossing its other mandate (full employment) out the window as it fights high prices. Already, the hikes have brought growth in the housing market to a standstill. Will the consumer sector be next? The U.S. economy has been walking a fine line between expansion and contraction for the past four quarters. Substantially higher interest rates could tip GDP into recession this year, and send the unemployment rate up toward 5.0%. We think the central bank may well be lowering rates if the jobless rate rises above the 4.0% level.

Over the past 19 years, the second-best month for performance of the S&P 500 (SPX) has been April -- and as far as frequency of outperformance goes, April is number one. During this period, the SPX has averaged a 2% gain and has risen 79% of the time. The NYSE has averaged 2.3% for the month and has gone up 83% of the time. Similar numbers can be seen for the S&P 100 (OEX), but there have been better months for both the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) -- for which July is the big winning month.

Monday Tee Up: Inflation and Earning Season Kickoff

Stocks rose on Tuesday morning, led by strong gains in the Energy, Technology, and Communication Services sectors. The rally came a day after the S&P 500 fell to a new closing low for the year. Housing market data was stronger than expected. The Commerce Department said that U.S. new home sales rose 28.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000 in August, up from a revised 532,000 in July. The reading was well above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 500,000. At the same time, the median price of a new home fell 6.3% from the prior month to $436,800. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil traded near $79 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1642 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning after recent sharp losses as investors awaited the Fed's interest rate announcement this afternoon. Based on recent hot inflation data, the Fed is now expected to move even more aggressively than initially planned, with a 75-basis-point hike. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Crude oil fell to $118 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1823 per ounce.

Stocks finished higher on Thursday after recovering from sharp midday losses. Investors continued to assess the Fed's plans for interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, along with the impact of the war in Ukraine and new sanctions on Russia. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 166,000 for the week ended April 2, down from 171,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 200,000. However, continuing claims rose to 1.523 million from 1.506 million a week earlier and were well above consensus. The Dow rose 0.25%, the S&P 0.43%, and the Nasdaq 0.06%. Crude oil traded near $97 per barrel, while gold rose $12 to $1935 per ounce.

Interest rates along the entire yield curve got another jolt on Tuesday, moving to new recovery highs after some additional (and somewhat surprising) hawkish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard. For both bonds and stocks, it was not what the doctor ordered. The S&P 500 lost 1.4% and the Nasdaq gave up 2.14%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This edition features Broadridge's potential, trends in utility companies, new coverage of Datadog, and Eastman, Atlassian, and Comcast.

This edition features the changing winds of solar energy, the wide moats in network security, our pondering Zendesk's recent acquisition, and Fresenius, Deliveroo, and New World Development.

During the first trading week of 2022, insider transaction volume returned in full force, following low activity during the 2021 holiday period. Volume is expected to drop off again over the coming weeks as trading restrictions kick in for insiders in advance of corporate earnings reports.

Stocks gave up most of their early gains on Thursday but still finished in positive territory, with the S&P and the Nasdaq at record levels. Employment data was positive, as first-time jobless claims fell to 340,000, below the consensus forecast and the lowest level since March 2020. Continuing claims fell to 2.748 million, also down from the prior week and below consensus. The data came ahead of the government's August employment report on Friday morning. The Bloomberg consensus calls for the addition of 725,000 new payroll jobs after an increase of 943,000 in July, and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 5.2%. The Dow rose 0.37%, the S&P 0.28%, and the Nasdaq 0.14%. Crude oil rose to nearly $70 per barrel, while gold fell $4 to $1812 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Monday morning, led by the Technology and Communication Services sectors, as investors awaited the first 1Q earnings reports from major banks on Wednesday. Earnings from S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 25% in the first quarter, according to data from Refinitiv. On the M&A front, Microsoft said that it would acquire AI and speech recognition company Nuance Communications in a $19.7 billion deal. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $60 per barrel, while gold fell $12 to $1733 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks were mostly higher on Wednesday morning amid more positive news from Pfizer, which reported that its coronavirus vaccine was 95% effective in the final results of its late-stage trial, and from Boeing, which received FAA approval to fly its 737 MAX jet after a 20-month review. On the housing front, the Commerce Department said that October housing starts rose 4.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.53 million units, up from 1.459 million in September and above the Reuters consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil traded near $42 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1882 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks performed well on Friday, capping off a good week that saw all major indexes increase. The Nasdaq lagged its blue-chip peers on Friday, but riskier assets performed significantly better then blue chips on the week. For a second consecutive week, U.S. investors looked past concerns about rising COVID-19 case numbers. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed roughly 370 points, 1.4%. The S&P 500 increased 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose a lesser 0.7%. For the full week, the Dow increased 1.0%. The S&P 500 was up 1.8%, and the Nasdaq increased 4.0%. For the year-to-date, losses are now 8.6% for the Dow and 1.4% for the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq is up 18.3%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is down 4.6%, while the S&P 500 is up 5.7%, and the Nasdaq is up 28.8%.

Stocks performed well on Friday, capping off a good week that saw all major indexes increase. The Nasdaq lagged its blue-chip peers on Friday, but riskier assets performed significantly better then blue chips on the week. For a second consecutive week, U.S. investors looked past concerns about rising COVID-19 case numbers. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed roughly 370 points, 1.4%. The S&P 500 increased 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose a lesser 0.7%. For the full week, the Dow increased 1.0%. The S&P 500 was up 1.8%, and the Nasdaq increased 4.0%. For the year-to-date, losses are now 8.6% for the Dow and 1.4% for the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq is up 18.3%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is down 4.6%, while the S&P 500 is up 5.7%, and the Nasdaq is up 28.8%.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.