Economy, Earnings Shaping up as Tailwinds for Early 2024

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Stocks fell again on Thursday morning, extending Wednesday's selloff, as investors weighed a wide range of earnings reports, a tentative labor agreement between Ford and the UAW, and stronger-than-expected GDP data. The Commerce Department, in its advance estimate, said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 4.9% annualized rate in 3Q, up from a revised 2.1% in the second quarter and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 4.3% growth. Meanwhile, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 for the week ended October 21. In Europe, the ECB held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.0%, reflecting progress in combating inflation after more than a year of rate hikes. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $83.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1988 per ounce.

The country's biggest banks kick off earnings season this week. For sure, this sector has suffered this year following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the downward spiral that followed. The KRE (S&P Regional Bank Index) is down 29% year-to-date versus a rise of 12% for the S&P 500. We see opportunity here and have an Over-Weight rating on the sector. We believe the worst is over after the March/April bank failures and that the risk associated with these failures has been factored into share-price valuations. In the earnings reports that start flowing on Friday, we'll be focused on updates in the following areas: loan growth, where we expect growth to have slowed to low single-digits as higher interest rates weigh on consumers and businesses; loan loss provisions, where we see the gauge moving higher as net charge-offs trend toward normal; commercial real estate, where higher interest rates and new post-pandemic social, work, and shopping behaviors magnify the exposure of banks to commercial real estate, and; investment banking, where we are starting to see recovery in M&A and IPO activity. Yes, banks have challenges. Overall, we feel the banks are on solid footing and that valuations at current levels are attractive. Here's a list of our favored banks, broken down by niche.

Argus Research believes that ESG investing is a smart option to consider. Companies committed to ESG values typically reflect positive traits from management which often translate into better business. ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investing has come a long way and continues to grow. According to the Global Sustainable Investment Association, global assets under management in ESG strategies were $40 trillion in 2020, up from $23 trillion in 2016 and on track for $50 trillion by 2025. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. In time, the list of industries to avoid increased to include soft drinks, fast food, and oil and gas, among numerous others. But performance of these initial strategies lagged. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across industries that have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights. At Argus Research, we track ESG progress at specific companies as part of our Management analysis -- one of the six points in our proprietary Six-Point System for fundamental research. In addition to reviewing and measuring the ESG proclamations from companies under coverage, we partner with an ESG research firm, JUST Capital, and leverage its analysis and insights. JUST Capital's mission is to drive measurable corporate change to create a stakeholder-centric form of capitalism that reflects the priorities of the American public. JUST utilizes a combination of data-driven research and strategic engagement in an attempt to shift norms and practices in corporate America and the financial markets. JUST ESG Custom Ratings rank stocks in the Russell 1000 on criteria using a scale of 1-100. Drawing on the JUST Capital rankings, we have compiled focused lists of companies followed by Argus Research that are in position to have a "sustainable impact" on the environment, workplace, community, and marketplace. These firms have exemplary records of delivering on the bottom line, and also in improving the environment, contributing to community relations, and showing respect for their employees. We also have a theme model portfolio based in part on ESG criteria. To build the Argus U.S. ESG Theme Model Portfolio, we apply financial concepts such as industry diversification, income generation, risk reduction, and growth at a reasonable price to our various lists. In addition, all stocks must be on the Argus BUY list. For more on JUST Capital's criteria, please visit the JUST Capital website, www.justcapital.com. For more information on the Argus companies, please see our Analyst Reports at www.argusresearch.com. Here are some of the stocks that are currently in the Argus U.S. ESG Theme Model Portfolio.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, led by strong gains in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology sectors after a wide range of earnings reports. The gains came a day after an expected 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said that an additional rate hike was possible in September. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil rose nearly 2% to $80 per barrel, while gold fell sharply to $1945 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning after stronger-than-expected GDP data. The Commerce Department, in its final estimate, said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate in the first quarter, driven by strength in consumer spending. The reading was up from the prior estimate of 1.3% growth and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.4%. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 26,000 to 239,000 for the week ended June 24, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 265,000. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil rose to $70 per barrel while gold traded near $1920 per ounce.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. According to the Global Sustainable Investment Association, global assets under management in ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) strategies had grown to $40 trillion in 2020, up from $23 trillion in 2016 and on track for $50 trillion by 2025. The UN Principles for Responsible Investing -- to which Argus Research is a signatory -- now represents more than 5,000 signatories, according to UNPRI.org. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, at first focused on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. In time, the list of industries to avoid increased to include soft drinks, fast food, and oil and gas, among numerous others. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights. Companies and managements are increasingly measured on their adherence to Environmental, Social, and Governance best practice approaches and techniques.

Earnings Season: A Little Better than Expected, But...

We have studied the monthly, quarterly, and annual returns in the stock market since 1980. February is not one of the best months. On average, stocks rise only 0.1% in the month. Only the months of August and September have generated weaker average returns. There have been some strong Februarys, including 7% gains in 1986, 1991, and 1998, as well as a 5.5% surge in 2015. But there have been some clunkers as well: a 6% drop in 1982; a 9% plunge in 2001 during the "dot-com" bust; an 11% collapse near the bottom of the Great Recession and bear market in 2009; and, of course, the 20% bomb in February 2020, as the coronavirus began to spread around the world and the economy tumbled into a recession. Last year was nothing to write home about either, with a 4.9% drop in the month. This time around, investors are concerned about high interest rates, the risk of recession, slowing earnings growth, and geopolitical tensions. Indeed, the S&P 500 fell into a bear market in 2022, though 2023 started with a positive January. Given the challenges in the marketplace (and the fact that the Federal Reserve is still raising rates), we suggest that equity investors continue to focus on well-managed companies with clean balance sheets.

Stocks were mostly higher in volatile trading on Thursday morning, led by the Energy and Consumer Discretionary sectors. GDP data was stronger than expected. In its advance estimate, the Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.9% annualized rate in 4Q, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 2.6% though down from 3.2% growth in 3Q. The Dow was flat, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil rose nearly 2% to $81.50 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $1926 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Monday morning, reversing course after Friday's rally, as investors awaited the Fed's policy announcement and the October employment report later this week. In China, a COVID lockdown forced the closure of Shanghai Disneyland. Discontent with COVID restrictions also prompted workers to flee a Foxconn plant in China, disrupting the production of iPhones at the plant. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $87 per barrel, while gold fell $4 to $1641 per ounce.

Last week was the busiest of the quarter for earnings, with many sharp stock-price moves following above- or below-consensus results or changes in guidance. Through July 26, Refinitiv noted that 133 S&P 500 companies had reported earnings, with 76% beating expectations, above the long-term average of 66%. The blended (actual for those reporting and consensus for those still to report) growth rate is 6.2%, near the 5.6% expectation and indicating the "beats" have not been robust. But the sour mood coming into the quarter is being greeted with relief that profit shortfalls and lowered guidance are not rampant. Our analysts always look for companies that boost outlooks during earnings season. Raising guidance can be a catalyst for strong returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus coverage with raised guidance or increased outlooks during the 2Q22 EPS reporting season.

The dog days of summer may be perfect for a vacation at the beach, but investors don't always get to enjoy the month of August. Indeed, our analysis of monthly returns going back to 1980 indicates that August is ahead of only two other months (February and September) in terms of average return. Yes, there have been some hits. The month has a "win percentage" of 57%, and last year the S&P 500 increased 5.3% in August. But there have been some clunkers, including 1981 (-6%), 1990 (-9.4%), 1998 (-14.6%), 2001 (-6.4%), and 2015 (-6.3%). August generally is a quiet month on Wall Street. The second-quarter earnings reports are for the most part finished in July/early August. The IPO market, dormant already this year, often goes into a period of hibernation. Volume tends to be light, which is perfect for higher volatility. But this August, volatility is likely to remain high as economists debate whether the economy has entered recession after two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. We continue to focus on quality companies (with strong earnings, balance sheets, and management teams) as the markets approach what has typically been a difficult two-month stretch.

Earnings season continues today, with reports from Exxon, Procter & Gamble, and Abbvie. On Thursday, Apple and Amazon reported better-than-expected results after the bell. The major indices rose strongly despite weaker-than-expected GDP data, as the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy contracted at a 0.9% pace in 2Q. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 256,000 for the week ended July 23, down from 261,000 a week earlier. The Dow rose 1.03%, the S&P 1.21%, and the Nasdaq 1.08%. Crude oil rose slightly to $97 per barrel, while gold rose 2% to $1773 per ounce.

Dividend income, an important element of total return, is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. The pattern is being repeated in 2022 as well. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning, reversing much of Thursday's rally. Amazon shares dropped more than 12% after the company posted a first-quarter loss and issued disappointing guidance for the current quarter. Apple shares also fell, despite strong fiscal 2Q results, after the company warned that supply-chain constraints would weigh on revenue in 3Q. The Dow fell 1.2%, the S&P 1.8%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%. Crude oil rose to $108 per barrel, while gold traded near $1915 per ounce.

We have studied the monthly, quarterly, and annual returns in the stock market since 1980. February is not one of the best months. On average, stocks rise only 0.2% in the month. August and September are also months that have generated weak average returns. There have been some strong Februarys, including 7% gains in 1986, 1991, and 1998, as well as a 5.5% surge in 2015. But there have been some bombs as well: a 6% drop in 1982, a 9% plunge in 2001 during the "dot-com" bust, and an 11% collapse near the bottom of the Great Recession and bear market in 2009. February 2020 was also a clunker, as the coronavirus began to spread around the world and the economy tumbled into a recession. This time around, investors are still concerned about COVID-19 and the economy, not to mention interest rates and geopolitical tensions. Indeed, the S&P 500 dropped 5% in January. Below the headlines, the fundamentals for stocks remain strong: the domestic economy is again growing, interest rates are relatively low, and corporate earnings are rebounding. We think sell-offs could represent buying opportunities in advance of recovering stocks later in the year.

Stocks gave up strong early gains on Thursday, ending in the red after initially rallying on much better-than-expected economic data. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 6.9% rate in 4Q, up strongly from the prior quarter and well above the consensus forecast. On the employment front, first-time jobless claims fell to 260,000, down from the prior week and slightly below consensus. Continuing claims rose to 1.675 million, up from the prior week and above the consensus of 1.655 million. The Dow fell 0.02%, the S&P 0.54%, and the Nasdaq 1.40%. Crude oil rose slightly to $87 per barrel, while gold fell $34 to $1795 per ounce.

Often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market is dividend income, which is an important element of total return. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. But not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

This edition features European banks; California utilities; traditional payment firms; and notes from Johnson & Johnson, Green Thumb Industries, and new coverage Lithium Americas.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks were mainly flat on Monday morning as investors weighed more 3Q earnings reports and new U.S. manufacturing data. The Institute for Supply Management said that its index of national factory activity fell to 60.8 in October from 61.1 in September amid continued shortages of raw materials and supply-chain disruptions. The Reuters consensus had called for a decline to 60.5. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil rose to more than $84 per barrel, while gold traded near $1796 per ounce.

Cash is no longer king for point-of-sale transactions, with only 12% market share compared to 38% for credit cards, 29% for debit cards, and 10% for the fast-growing digital wallet sector. We see a long secular road for growth, as digital payments are in the early stages of transition. Factors driving this trend include U.S. banks and the Federal Reserve encouraging digital over paper money; the pandemic, which has accelerated contactless payments as a safety step; and greater merchant acceptance for small dollar amounts. Importantly, the emerging generations (Millennials and Gen Z) embrace both mobile banking and digital payments. Forecasts call for digital-payment transaction value to grow at an 11% compound annual rate for the next five years and to reach $11 trillion from the 2020 level of $5.4 trillion. Several companies in the Argus Research fundamental universe of coverage are in position to take advantage of this opportunity. Each of the following stocks is rated BUY at Argus.

The Technology sector started slowly in 2021 as investors focused on value stocks. But the sector has come on strong in recent months (up 22% year-to-date) and now is outperforming the market (up 20.7%) as well as value sectors such as Consumer Staples (+8%), Utilities (+10%), Materials (+17%), and Industrials (+18%). The sector is the largest in the U.S. market and now accounts for more than 28% of the S&P 500. Over the long term, we expect the sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT). Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. We have an Over-Weight ranking on the Tech sector and think investors should look to allocate up to 30% of their diversified portfolios to the group. Here is how we use our analysts' Tech sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

Stocks fell on Friday morning amid earnings from a range of major companies and new consumer spending data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. consumer spending rose 1.0% in June, up from a 0.1% decline in May and above the Reuters consensus forecast calling for 0.7% growth. The core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) rose 3.5% from the prior year in June, up from 3.4% in May but below the consensus forecast of 3.7%. Amazon shares fell more than 7%, despite strong earnings, on weaker-than-expected 2Q revenue and disappointing sales guidance for the current third quarter. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil traded near $74 per barrel, while gold fell $11 to $1825 per ounce.

Often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market is dividend income, which is an important element of total return. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Stocks rose modestly on Thursday morning, but gave up strong early gains amid a range of first-quarter earnings reports and new GDP and employment data. Investors also weighed President Biden's ambitious plans for new spending on families and education. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized rate in the first quarter, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 6.1% and up from 4.3% growth in the fourth quarter. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil rose 1.5% to $65 per barrel, while gold traded near $1768 per ounce.

Sustainable Impact Investing is gaining traction with the global investment community. In January 2020, BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. But the performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as the climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Monday was another one of those odd market days, as the rotation out of growth and into value continued in full force. Stocks, sectors, and industries that were left for dead for most of 2020 due to the pandemic have come roaring back, while former leaders that we thought were technically over-owned and over-loved continue to sell off.

Stocks were largely flat on Wednesday morning following earnings reports from Alphabet and Amazon and new employment data. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private employers added 174,000 jobs in January, well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 49,000 and up from a loss of 78,000 in December. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $56 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1836 per ounce.

We have studied the monthly, quarterly and annual returns in the stock market since 1980. February is not one of the best months. On average, stocks rise only 0.1% in the month. Only the months of August and September have generated weaker average returns. There have been some strong Februarys, including 7% gains in 1986, 1991 and 1998, as well as a 5.5% surge in 2015. But there have been some bombs as well: a 6% drop in 1982, a 9% plunge in 2001 during the "dot-com" bust, and an 11% collapse near the bottom of the Great Recession and bear market in 2009. February 2020 was also a clunker, as the coronavirus began to spread around the world and the economy tumbled into a recession. This time around, investors are still concerned about COVID-19 and the economy, not to mention stock-market valuations and irregular trading activity. Below the headlines, the fundamentals for stocks remain strong: the domestic economy is again growing, interest rates are low and corporate earnings are poised to rebound. We think selloffs could represent buying opportunities in advance of recovering stocks later in the year.

We recently noted that the S&P 500 was about 30% above its 200-week average and above the upper weekly Bollinger Band (BB). Over the past couple of decades, the market has corrected when it was this extended. But in 1987 and during the '90s, the index was more than 50% above its 200-week.

The Technology sector has led the market recovery from the COVID-19 depths of March 2020. Through November 20, the sector was up 31% for the year, compared to a 10% gain for the S&P 500. The Tech sector is the largest in the U.S. market and now accounts for more than 27% of the S&P 500. Over the long term, we expect the Tech sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT): Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. We have an Over-Weight ranking on the Tech sector and think investors should look to allocate up to 30% of their diversified portfolios to the group. Here is how we use our Tech sector ideas from our analysts in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

This edition features digital ad spending outlook; pandemic's impact on payments industry; chipmakers; and notes from Boeing, Amazon, and Curaleaf.

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday morning amid rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. and Europe and mixed corporate earnings. MasterCard shares fell 7% after the company posted 3Q earnings that were down from the prior year and below the consensus estimate, reflecting the slowdown in travel spending. UPS shares also fell sharply despite better-than-expected third-quarter results Amid the selloff, GE posted a surprise 3Q profit and positive free cash flow, sending the shares up nearly 8%. The Dow fell 3.2%, the S&P 3.1%, and the Nasdaq 3.2%. Crude oil traded near $37 per barrel, while gold fell $34 to $1878 per ounce.

Often overlooked amid the market's gyrations, dividend income is an important element of total return. Consider recent results: in 2015, the S&P 500 delivered a total return of 1.4%, including dividends -- but excluding dividends, the market was down 0.7%. Capital gains were a bit easier to achieve in 2016-17, though we note that dividend payments still contributed about 15%-20% of total return for investors. And dividend payments softened the blow in 2018, when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Morgan Stanley. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks, particularly in a slow-growth or recessionary economic environment.

Often overlooked amid the market's gyrations, dividend income is an important element of total return. Consider recent results: in 2015, the S&P 500 delivered a total return of 1.4%, including dividends -- but excluding dividends, the market was down 0.7%. Capital gains were a bit easier to achieve in 2016-17, though we note that dividend payments still contributed about 15%-20% of total return for investors. And dividend payments softened the blow in 2018, when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Morgan Stanley. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks, particularly in a slow-growth or recessionary economic environment.

Sustainable Impact Investing is gaining traction with the global investment community. In January, BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $7 trillion in assets, announced that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. Mr. Fink's new focus follows rapid growth in sustainable assets in recent years. According to Opimas, a management consultancy focused on global capital markets, global assets under management in ESG strategies had grown to $40.5 trillion in 2020, doubling in four years and tripling in eight years. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies for various reasons. Now, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues.

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday following a record decline in quarterly GDP and continued high unemployment claims. Investors were also rattled earlier in the session by a tweet from President Trump calling for a delay in the November election. The U.S. economy contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, and first-time unemployment claims exceeded 1 million for the 19th straight week, with a slight increase to 1.434 million. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, also rose to 17.01 million, above the Bloomberg consensus of 16.2 million. The Dow fell 0.85%, the S&P fell 0.38%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.43%. Crude oil fell 2% to $40.50 per barrel, while gold dropped $5 to $1972 per ounce.

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday following a record decline in quarterly GDP and continued high unemployment claims. Investors were also rattled earlier in the session by a tweet from President Trump calling for a delay in the November election. The U.S. economy contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, and first-time unemployment claims exceeded 1 million for the 19th straight week, with a slight increase to 1.434 million. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, also rose to 17.01 million, above the Bloomberg consensus of 16.2 million. The Dow fell 0.85%, the S&P fell 0.38%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.43%. Crude oil fell 2% to $40.50 per barrel, while gold dropped $5 to $1972 per ounce.

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday following a record decline in quarterly GDP and continued high unemployment claims. Investors were also rattled earlier in the session by a tweet from President Trump calling for a delay in the November election. The U.S. economy contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, and first-time unemployment claims exceeded 1 million for the 19th straight week, with a slight increase to 1.434 million. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, also rose to 17.01 million, above the Bloomberg consensus of 16.2 million. The Dow fell 0.85%, the S&P fell 0.38%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.43%. Crude oil fell 2% to $40.50 per barrel, while gold dropped $5 to $1972 per ounce.