U.S. stocks were higher on Thursday morning. Initial jobless claims were 212,000 for the latest week, unchanged from the previous-week's revised level. Ongoing unemployment was 1,812,000, virtually unchanged from the previous week. The Dow was up 0.5%, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%. Crude oil is trading above $82 per barrel and gold rose $9 to $2397 per ounce.

We have studied the monthly, quarterly, and annual returns in the stock market since 1980 -- and February is not one of the best months. On average, stocks rise less than 0.1% in the shortest month of the year. Only the months of August and September have generated weaker average returns. Yes, there have been some strong Februarys, including 7% gains in 1986, 1991, and 1998, as well as a 5.5% surge in 2015. But there have been some clunkers as well, including a 6% drop in 1982; a 9% plunge in 2001 during the "dot-com" bust; an 11% collapse near the bottom of the Great Recession and bear market in 2009; and, of course, the 20% bomb in February 2020, as the coronavirus began to spread around the world and the economy tumbled into a recession. Last year was nothing to write home about, with a 1.9% drop during the month. This time around, February is starting with a bit of positive momentum, as returns have been in the black for each of the past three months. Earnings season continues and, as usual, companies are outperforming Street expectations. However, equity investors got a surprise message from the Federal Reserve last week that interest rates probably won't be coming down as fast as the Street had expected. While we continue to think the general fundamentals for stocks are positive (profits are rising, valuations are reasonable, the economy is growing, and rates are headed lower), we still suggest that equity investors focus on well-managed companies with clear growth prospects and clean balance sheets -- especially in February.

For a fourth consecutive week, insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research highlights outsized selling by corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners on the Nasdaq. The selling again is comprised mostly of pre-planned transactions under SEC Rule 10b5-1, which allows insiders to have preset plans to buy or sell stock in the future if the insider is unaware of material nonpublic information. While that may seem to discount the importance of the pre-planned sales, we note that (again for a fourth week) the volume of pre-planned sales is noticeably higher than the historical norm, currently at around 70% (and 75% last week) compared to the norm of closer to 55%.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Since the end of October, when market sentiment was pretty bearish based on the size of pullbacks and/or corrections in the major indices, there has been (little surprise) a rather large increase in bullish sentiment. This includes indicators that track where money is exchanged (important) as well as sentiment polls (just opinions).

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Global assets under management in ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) strategies grew to $40 trillion in 2020, up from $23 trillion in 2016 and on track for $50 trillion by 2025, according to the Global Sustainable Investment Association. As assets flowed in over the past 40 years, ESG investing evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. In time, the list of industries to avoid increased. Performance of initial strategies lagged and the approach was modified. Now, instead of identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on issues such as the climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights. At Argus, we track ESG developments at companies as part of our management analysis. In addition to reviewing and measuring ESG proclamations from the companies we cover, we partner with an ESG research firm, the JUST Capital Foundation, and leverage its analysis on the topic. JUST utilizes a combination of data-driven research and strategic engagement in an attempt to shift norms and practices in corporate America and the financial markets. Drawing on JUST rankings of stocks in the Russell 1000, we have compiled focused lists of companies followed by Argus that are in position to have a "sustainable impact" on the environment, workplace, community, and marketplace. We also have a Theme Model Portfolio based in part on the ESG criteria.

Stocks continued to slide on Thursday morning, extending Wednesday's losses ahead of a midday speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors weighed a strong 3Q report from Netflix, which reported solid growth in paid subscribers, revenue, and EPS; and an earnings miss from Tesla, along with a range of warnings from CEO Elon Musk. Weekly employment data pointed to a still tight labor market. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 for the week ended October 14, the lowest level since January and below the Reuters consensus of 212,000. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil fell to $88 per barrel, while gold traded near $1964 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Argus Research believes that ESG investing is a smart option to consider. Companies committed to ESG values typically reflect positive traits from management which often translate into better business. ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investing has come a long way and continues to grow. According to the Global Sustainable Investment Association, global assets under management in ESG strategies were $40 trillion in 2020, up from $23 trillion in 2016 and on track for $50 trillion by 2025. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. In time, the list of industries to avoid increased to include soft drinks, fast food, and oil and gas, among numerous others. But performance of these initial strategies lagged. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across industries that have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights. At Argus Research, we track ESG progress at specific companies as part of our Management analysis -- one of the six points in our proprietary Six-Point System for fundamental research. In addition to reviewing and measuring the ESG proclamations from companies under coverage, we partner with an ESG research firm, JUST Capital, and leverage its analysis and insights. JUST Capital's mission is to drive measurable corporate change to create a stakeholder-centric form of capitalism that reflects the priorities of the American public. JUST utilizes a combination of data-driven research and strategic engagement in an attempt to shift norms and practices in corporate America and the financial markets. JUST ESG Custom Ratings rank stocks in the Russell 1000 on criteria using a scale of 1-100. Drawing on the JUST Capital rankings, we have compiled focused lists of companies followed by Argus Research that are in position to have a "sustainable impact" on the environment, workplace, community, and marketplace. These firms have exemplary records of delivering on the bottom line, and also in improving the environment, contributing to community relations, and showing respect for their employees. We also have a theme model portfolio based in part on ESG criteria. To build the Argus U.S. ESG Theme Model Portfolio, we apply financial concepts such as industry diversification, income generation, risk reduction, and growth at a reasonable price to our various lists. In addition, all stocks must be on the Argus BUY list. For more on JUST Capital's criteria, please visit the JUST Capital website, www.justcapital.com. For more information on the Argus companies, please see our Analyst Reports at www.argusresearch.com. Here are some of the stocks that are currently in the Argus U.S. ESG Theme Model Portfolio.

Stocks edged higher on Tuesday morning as investors awaited earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet after the close. Consumer confidence data was stronger than expected. The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index rose to 117.0 in July, up from 110.1 in June and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 112.0. The reading was the highest in two years. The Dow was flat, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $79 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1961 per ounce.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered so far in 2023, but gains have been driven largely by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise interest rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? Perhaps not yet. We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.8% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. We have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research analysts that are BUY-rated and have impressive Min Vol characteristics of low beta, high yield, high market cap, strong balance sheets, and low risk profiles. Some of the stocks featured in the portfolio are listed below.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

The S&P 500 (SPX) continues to trend toward several important pieces of resistance following the rally off the March 13 intraday low of 3,809. First, the SPX is right at trendline resistance off the peak since August. Back in the latter part of February, the index had broken down out of a bearish wedge, backtested the lower line of the pattern, and continued lower. From the February 2 closing high to the recent closing low, the index gave up almost 8%, or 324 points. Based on the size of the wedge, a minimum target was down at 3,656 -- which the index didn't come close to hitting.

Stock prices have now declined for three weeks in a row, as investors prepare for persistent inflation, higher interest rates, and a possible recession in 2023. The S&P 500 fell by 1% on Friday in the wake of the PCE inflation report, which showed that pricing pressures in important economic areas such as housing and transportation might not quickly abate. The VIX volatility index is a gauge of investor fear. After the recent pullback, it remains elevated in the 20s, above the 10-year historical average of 18. In short, the stock market remains a risky place, even if we may have seen the worst of the possible recession and supply-chain chaos. We think that investors will need to navigate a risky market environment for much of 2023. Ongoing and future concerns include the aforementioned still-high inflation (latest PCE reading was 5.4%) and a Federal Reserve that remains on a course toward higher rates for a longer time. Meanwhile, Europe is enduring a cold winter as Russian President Putin uses his country's oil stocks as a weapon in his push into Eastern Europe. The U.S. economy teeters on recession, with layoff announcements growing and as corporate earnings growth has stalled. Given the widespread risks in the marketplace, we think investors should continue to focus on well-managed companies with clear growth objectives and clean balance sheets.

Monday Tee Up: Data Hat Trick Includes the Fed, Jobs, and Earnings

On Thursday, the S&P 500 (SPX) cleared its bear-market trendline, which has been in place since early January 2022. We do not consider this a breakout just yet, as the SPX has retaken this key piece of resistance for only one day and by only one percent. The next important hurdle is the prior high in December at 4,100. A break of that level will officially give the index a higher high and higher low for the first time since the broader decline started.

Rapidly rising inflation 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those fixed-income returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.5% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate.

There are two main points we can make about current market breadth. Yes, it has improved. But no, it is not signaling enough strength to project that the bear market is over and that a new bull market is emerging. There has been a smattering of NYSE breadth thrusts over the past seven months, but nothing consistent. December has featured several very weak breadth days, both from declining issues and volume.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

The equity markets have calmed in recent weeks, as inflation readings have cooled (a bit), GDP has started growing again, oil prices have declined, and the U.S. mid-term elections have come and gone. That said, the VIX Volatility Index (VIX) has not yet closed below 20 in 2022, which is still above the 10-year historical average of 18. In other words, the stock market remains a risky place. What are investors concerned about now? Issues range from still-high inflation (latest CPI reading was 7.7%) to a Federal Reserve that remains on a long-term course toward higher rates. Meanwhile, Europe is bracing for a cold winter as Russian Premier Putin uses his country's oil stocks as a weapon in his push into Eastern Europe. As well, the U.S. economy is teetering on (or in) a recession. The VIX is a key gauge of investor sentiment and has been elevated above the 20 level for most of the past two years. Last Friday, after a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average popped by 199 points, the VIX closed at 23, down from 30 a month prior. Still, the coast is not yet clear -- especially with unemployment likely headed higher as the Fed maintains its hawkish stance. We think investors should continue to focus on well-managed companies with clear growth objectives and clean balance sheets.

Stocks finished lower on Thursday after giving up early gains, as investors weighed mixed earnings reports along with new employment and housing market data. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to 214,000 for the week ended October 15, below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 230,000. Continuing claims rose by 21,000 to 1.385 million. On the housing front, existing home sales fell 1.5% in September to an annualized 4.71 million units, slightly above the consensus estimate. The Dow fell 0.30%, the S&P 0.80%, and the Nasdaq 0.61%. Crude oil rose to $86 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1633 per ounce.

The broad market selloff on September 13 still feels raw, and the Federal Reserve has left no doubt that it will fight inflation vigorously for as long as it takes. Stocks, and likely many portfolios, are feeling some pain. In volatile times like these, when selling is widespread, a classic investing strategy is to focus on “best in class” stocks. These are the strongest and most-stable stocks in each sector -- and by looking across sectors, diversification can also be achieved. To get our list this week, we ran multiple screens. We started with the Argus Min-Vol theme model portfolio. As the name suggests, that portfolio includes companies that likely can best withstand market fluctuations. We then shortlisted the group by also screening for financial strength and dividend yield. And, finally, we picked one stock from each of the 11 S&P sectors. The following stocks are our Best in Class for Safety recommendations for September 2022, and all of them currently carry an Argus BUY rating.

Stocks recovered some lost ground in July, but are still sharply lower for the year. Bond prices turned higher as well but, as with stocks, remain in the red year-to-date. Our Stock-Bond Barometer slightly favors bonds over stocks for long-term portfolios. In other words, these asset classes should be near their target weights in diversified portfolios, with a modest tilt toward fixed income. We are now balanced on large- and small-caps. We favor large-caps for growth exposure and financial strength, while small-caps are selling at historical discounts relative to large caps and offer value. Our recommended exposure to small- and mid-caps is now 15%-17% of equity allocation, in line with the benchmark weighting. U.S. stocks have outperformed global stocks over the trailing one- and five-year periods. We expect this long-term trend to continue, given volatile global economic, political, geopolitical, and currency conditions. That said, international stocks offer favorable near-term valuations, and we target 5%-10% of equity exposure to the group. Value has taken an early lead in 2022 due to the negative impact of rising interest rates on growth valuations. Over the longer term, we anticipate that growth, led by Tech and Healthcare, will continue to top returns from value, led by Energy and Materials, due to favorable secular and demographic trends.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 has knocked the stock market into a bear market. While growth strategies have suffered the most, value strategies also have declined. Even year-to-date bond prices are lower. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.0% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

As of the close on July 25, the major indices were sitting at key short-term spots -- either at recent breakout areas or just above. The S&P 500 fell back to its breakout area near 3,950 and was just above its 50-day average. The Nasdaq was slightly above its breakout at 11,700 and a few hundred points above its 50-day. The QQQs were above the breakout point at 297; the S&P MidCap 400 was very close to breakout; and the Russell 2000 had pulled right back to key short-term chart support.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 has knocked the stock market into a bear market. While growth strategies have suffered the most, value strategies also have declined. Even bond prices are lower year-to-date. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? Perhaps not yet. We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.0% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min-Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min-Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. We have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research analysts that are BUY-rated and have impressive Min-Vol characteristics of low beta, high yield, high market cap, strong balance sheets, and low risk profiles. Some of the stocks featured in the portfolio are listed below.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

ESG Stocks

Stocks have struggled this year, with the S&P 500 now down over 12% (excluding dividends) so far in 2022. But not every stock has tumbled. Our analysts have been working through earnings season and have come across several stocks in Argus coverage that have approached target prices. We set target prices through our valuation framework, which includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, and future dividends and cash flows. After adjusting the models for the latest earnings and dividend information -- most of which has been good -- here are some of the stocks for which we have raised target prices over the past month. All of the following stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Investors live in a world of new volatility. The onset of COVID-19 ended the good old days of low mid-teen readings from the VIX Volatility Index (readings investors enjoyed for much of the 2013-2018 period). Since the peak VIX reading of 85 in March 2020, the VIX was slowly making progress back toward those mid-teen readings, enduring speed bumps along the way such as a recession, new COVID-19 waves, an extraordinarily divisive U.S. presidential election, and fears of inflation. In the past few weeks, however, nerves have been rattled by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, an inverted yield curve, prospects for aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, and 1Q EPS results that aren't exactly blowing expectations out of the water. The S&P 500 is now down 7.8% year-to-date and again nearing a correction. That's not unexpected: since 1920, the index has recorded a 5% pullback three times a year on average and a 10% correction once every year and a half. On our S&P 500 valuation model, stocks had been priced for perfection (above the normal fair-value range) and are responding to higher interest rates and a slowdown in corporate profit growth. In this environment, we continue to recommend that investors focus on high-quality stocks, with strong balance sheets and experienced management teams.

Economy Faces Inflation, War in Ukraine

West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) continues to be volatile. After yesterday's smackdown of almost 5%, WTI is sitting at $97/barrel. After going parabolic in March and reaching $130, crude oil pulled back to $93.50, rallied back to $116.65, and fell to an intraday low of $95.73 on Wednesday before rallying at the end of the day. So far, crude has retraced 50% of its entire rally off the lows from early December. A 61.8% giveback targets $88.

Since January 27 (or for the past 28 trading days), the S&P 500 has gained at least 1.45% eight times in a single day, the highest being yesterday -- when the "500" exploded by 2.6%. The index also has witnessed seven days with at least a 1.55% decline -- with the largest being a 2.95% drop on March 7. So in 15 of the past 28 trading sessions, we have seen both abnormal gains and losses.

Just when it looked like we were about to get an ?all clear? on jumping back into stocks, Mr. Market smacked us over the head. Price volatility was calming down, sentiment was screaming that a bottom was in, and even bond sentiment was proclaiming that the rate move higher could reverse (for at least a counter-trend rally). But a plethora of bad news hit the market throughout the day on Thursday, starting with a hotter-than-expected inflation report. Next up was some hawkish Fedspeak, which was followed by a late-day rumor about an emergency Fed rate hike. The 10-year Treasury yield finished up 10 basis points to 2.03% -- at the highest level since July 2019.

We have raised our intermediate-term technical outlook to neutral from bearish. The market has come roaring back after a week of panic and indiscriminate selling. While we were disappointed with market breadth on January 28, it was strong on Monday, January 31. The S&P 500 rose another 1.9%, for a two-day spike of 4Friday, .4%, the biggest two-day gain since April 2020 when we were coming out of the pandemic low. The Nasdaq spiked 3.4% for a two-day surge of 6.6%, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has screamed higher by 6.4% on a two-day basis. These are the biggest returns for both indices since November of 2020.

We are lowering our intermediate-term technical outlook to bearish from bullish. The major indices continue to cut through important support levels. The condition of most individual stock charts is ugly, with many losing their 50-day averages and then cratering through their 200-day averages. This is definitely a change of character: absent the pandemic, it is something we have not seen since September 2018 (and 2015 and 2016 for some of the higher-beta indices). We have not had a decent-sized correction since the pandemic swoon, so we are certainly overdue.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

After September's nearly 5% decline, the S&P 500 is off to the races in October. From a sector perspective, early fourth-quarter leadership remains with the year's winners. Energy is out in front, with a 9% gain in just two weeks of 4Q21 trading; that has pushed the sector's market-leading annual gain past 53%. There's a long climb back for Energy, which fell 40% in 2020.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Corporate insiders continue to show relative indifference to equities, neither buying nor selling aggressively. We've used this space to suggest that current insider sentiment is not surprising, given that major stock indices are at all-time highs. Still, valuations could become more appealing if corporate earnings continue to rise and global economies continue to recover. With that in mind, current insider sentiment seems reasonable. But is it in keeping with historical behavior?

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks kept the momentum going in April, and are now up almost 12%, including dividends, in the year-to-date. Our analysts have been progressing through earnings season, and have come across many stocks in coverage that have approached target prices. We set target prices through our valuation framework, which includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, future dividends, and cash flows. After adjusting the models for the latest earnings and dividend information -- most of which has been good -- here are some of the stocks on which we have raised target prices over the past month. All stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks were little changed on Thursday morning following new employment and housing market data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 547,000 for the week ended April 17, down from 586,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 610,000. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales fell 3.7% to an annualized 6.01 million in March. The reading was the weakest since August 2020 and below the consensus forecast of 6.19 million. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to $61 per barrel, while gold traded near $1787 per ounce.

This is an absolutely crazy market! The growth indices were right on the edge of breaking down further after declines of almost 11%. But we got a little relief from long rates, so someone lit some Trinitrotoluene. (OK, we didn't know what TNT stood for either.)

A little over a year ago, we asked the following question. Does the stock market have a governor? Since breaking out to all-time highs and completing a cup-with-handle in November, the S&P 500 has been glued to its upper weekly Bollinger Band (BB). BBs are made up of three lines: a simple moving average (usually 20-period), an upper band, and a lower band. The upper and lower bands are two standard deviations (plus or minus) from the 20-period moving average.

The stock market moved higher during the shortened week, as investors appeared to embrace the Biden administration's early actions. Large-cap tech stocks outperformed blue chips as investors embraced risk. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 179 points, or 0.57%. The S&P 500 was down 0.30%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.09%. For the week, the DJIA increased 183 points, or 0.59%, the S&P 500 rose 1.94%, and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 4.19%.