Everyone is wondering when the Federal Reserve will start to wind down its asset-purchase program -- but few are discussing U.S. debt levels, which have grown over the past 10 years. Total U.S. debt is now more than 125% of GDP, according to the Office of Management & the Budget. This is the highest level since World War II. In the 1970s and 1980s, the debt/GDP ratio was in the 30%-40% range, and moved up toward the 60% level by 2000. The debt level soared around 2010, as the government spent aggressively to halt the Great Recession and rekindle growth. (According to Keynes, that's what the government is supposed to do). Still, despite more than 10 years of economic growth prior to the pandemic, debt only increased as a percentage of GDP. And now, in light of the fiscal spending to fight the impact of COVID-19, debt levels have surged. This is not a problem that has to be fixed today. After all, interest rates are low on an historical basis and policies to change the trajectory (less spending, more taxes) could push the economy back into decline. But politicians should start to establish a plan to address the issue in the next 10-15 years. If the problem is not solved, the situation could result in hyperinflation and a weak dollar, which would send interest rates higher and cut into equity valuations.

This edition features edge computing; utilities' role in green energy; AIG's valuation; and notes from RH, SEI Investments, and Lululemon.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Market breadth has improved a bit since mid-August, as the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 50-day average has increased to 68% from 56%. It certainly would be preferable if this percentage continued to rise. The percentage above their 200-day is now 82% from a recent 76%, and is a very strong reading.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, led by the Technology sector, though investors remained concerned about prospects for slower economic growth and the impact of the Delta variant. On the earnings front, Deere posted solid fiscal 3Q results and raised its full-year guidance, though the shares fell on concerns about rising costs and supply-chain issues. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $63 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1785 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Value stocks are outperforming growth in 2021 for the first time since 2016. While a recent rally in growth stocks has narrowed the performance advantage for value in the year to date, an environment of historically low interest rates is one in which many investors are still searching for high levels of income -- which often can be found in value stocks. When we look for attractive high-yield/deep-value stocks at Argus, we look for low valuations on metrics such as price/earnings, price/sales, price/book, yield, and price/cash flow. We also look for companies with clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability, high-quality earnings, and experienced management teams. We seek to avoid companies in industries that are in secular decline, or with dividend yields that are so high that the payout is clearly at risk. Based on numerous requests from clients, we have designed a portfolio of companies that are BUY-rated at Argus Research, have a Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 3.0% or higher.

To quote Humphrey B. Neill, the public is often right during the trends, but wrong at both ends. Or, as John Maynard Keynes offered up, markets stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Keep that in mind as we review current sentiment barometers.

Stocks fell on Monday morning amid geopolitical concerns and weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data. The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics said that industrial production expanded at a 6.4% rate in July, down from 8.3% in June and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 7.8% growth. Retail sales growth of 8.5% was also down from 12.1% in June and below the consensus estimate. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil fell nearly 3% to $66.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1788 per ounce.

The stock market was mixed last week, as the market weighed pessimism from consumers and coronavirus news in generally quiet trading. Blue chips outperformed tech stocks. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 16 points, or 0.04%. The S&P 500 was up 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.04%. For the week, the DJIA was up 307 points, or 0.87%, the S&P 500 was up 0.71%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.09%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 16.04%, the S&P 500 is up 18.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 15.01%.

This edition features new and updated coverage of First Republic Bank and Morgan Stanley; the runway for Australia/New Zealand airlines; and notes from Pilgrims Pride, Aviva, and Disney.

Stocks kept momentum going in July and August. Our analysts have been progressing through earnings season and have come across many stocks that have approached target prices. We set targets through our valuation framework, which includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, and future dividends and cash flows. After adjusting for the latest information, here are some of the stocks on which we raised target prices over the past month. All of the following stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks were largely flat on Monday morning as investors weighed positive employment data along with the impact of rising Delta variant cases. The Labor Department's JOLTS report said that U.S. job openings rose by 590,000 to 10.1 million on the last day of June, above the consensus forecast of 9.28 million. Hiring also rose to 6.7 million in June from 6.0 million in May. The data came after a strong July employment report on Friday morning. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $66 per barrel, while gold dropped $28 to $1735 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning following new weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 385,000 for the week ended July 31, down from 399,000 a week earlier but slightly above the Bloomberg consensus of 383,000. The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade deficit rose 6.7% to a record $75.7 billion in June, driven by a sharp increase in imports. The consensus forecast was $74.1 billion. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil rose to $69 per barrel, while gold traded near $1805 per ounce.

Consumers are now more willing to spend on lifestyle enhancements along with necessary spending on life-saving treatments. In addition, the survival of the Affordable Care Act has kept the ranks of insured U.S. citizens above the historical average, further increasing consumer spending on healthcare services and products. Meanwhile, companies with experience in diagnostic testing, vaccines, and antiviral medicines, as well as suppliers of protective equipment and other hospital products, should benefit from efforts to contain the coronavirus pandemic. The sector accounts for 13.0% of the S&P 500, and includes companies in the pharmaceuticals, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurance industries. The sector is underperforming the market thus far in 2021, with a gain of 12.9%. We think the sector should account for 15-17% of diversified portfolios. Here is how we use our analysts' Financial Services sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios. All stocks are rated BUY at Argus.