Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq dip ahead of key inflation print

Karen Friar and Ines Ferré
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US stocks closed mixed on Monday while bitcoin (BTC-USD) extended its record rally as investors counted down to crucial inflation data that will test bets on interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) shed 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell about 0.4%, extending Friday's sharp decline in the tech heavy index.

Now the market is bracing for a last big test before the Federal Reserve's March 20 policy meeting. The Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday is front of mind after Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed wants to be more confident that inflation is cooling before easing up on borrowing costs. Given that, a surprise rise would undermine the optimism for a Fed policy shift that has boosted stocks.

Equities faltered after February's jobs report, which showed hiring remains strong even as unemployment beat estimates — a mixed picture that added little certainty to the debate on rate cuts.

In the meantime, a roaring rally in bitcoin sent the token to record highs on Monday after breaking above $72,000 for the first time. The leading cryptocurrency was last changing hands at $72,500, bringing gains for the year so far to roughly 65%.

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  • Ines Ferré

    S&P 500, Nasdaq slightly lower with key inflation print on deck, bitcoin near all-time highs

    Stocks ended the session mixed on Monday ahead of Tuesday's key inflation data.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) closed just above the flatline, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) shed 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was down about 0.4%, extending Friday's sharp slide for tech stocks.

    Investors are bracing for February's Consumer Price Index due out Tuesday before the market opens. The reading will be the last inflation print before the Fed's next policy decision on March 20. Investors are hopeful the central bank will cut interest rates this year.

    Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC-USD) soared to new highs on Monday, trading above $72,000 per token. Bulls say the current crypto rally is just beginning.

  • Ines Ferré

    Bitcoin touches new highs, trades above $72,000 — Wall Street projects it could go even further

    Bitcoin (BTC-USD) reached a peak of $72,600.84 on Monday, steadily charging past its prior highs touched last week.

    The cryptocurrency, which trades around the clock seven days a week, has gained more than 4% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin is up roughly 65% since the start of the year when it was trading around $44,200.

    Last week the token bolted past its November 2021 levels to reach $69,000.

    The recent move higher is far from the peak expected by some who track the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

    Lender Standard Chartered anticipates bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of the year. Research firm Fundstrat has a target range of $116,000 to $137,000. Hedge fund SkyBridge predicts $170,000 by April 2025.

    "People think we're nuts and that's fine, but I don't think we're nuts and that's why we have such a big position," Anthony Scaramucci, founder and CEO of SkyBridge Capital, told Yahoo Finance Live.

    Some on Wall Street say it is quite difficult to estimate the future price of bitcoin because it has no intrinsic value, and most big firms with large research arms are currently staying away from setting targets. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon has likened it to a "pet rock."

    "Bitcoin is like art," said a Wall Street research analyst who requested anonymity. "There's no way to come up with a target.”

    Read more on bitcoin price targets here

  • Ines Ferré

    Biden calls for tax hikes to shore up Social Security as Trump floats entitlement cuts

    President Biden released a budget that offered a call for tax increases to shore up Social Security while Donald Trump on Monday suggested he would consider entitlement "cutting" if elected this fall.

    As Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reports, the back-and-forth between the two candidates shows how Social Security is likely to be a front-burner issue in the coming campaign. It will also be central in the next presidential term no matter who wins this November.

    Insolvency — and across-the-board benefit cuts — loom as a possibility for the program in 2034.

    Read the full article here.

  • Ines Ferré

    Nvidia stock falls more than 1% as AI tech rally pauses

    Nvidia (NVDA) stock declined as much as 1.5% in afternoon trading following a brief reversal into green territory earlier in the session. The AI darling has been closely watched after an enormous run this year.

    Shares of the chipmaker are up 78% since the start of 2024, and 274% higher than a year ago.

    The stock tumbled more than 5% last Friday as the major averages fell from their recent highs and paused an AI-fueled tech rally.

    Nvidia shares hit all-time highs last Thursday. The stock's recent reversal has raised concerns of a broader market pullback.

  • Josh Schafer

    Wall Street thinks the US economy will grow faster than originally thought

    The latest labor market data showed continued signs of strength in the labor market and has economists feeling increasingly better about the outlook for economic growth.

    "The economy’s momentum early this year has been stronger than we were expecting a few weeks (and months) ago," JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "While we still expect growth to slow, we think the economy might perform better in the middle part of the year than we had previously forecasted."

    Feroli's call for increased economic growth in the middle quarters of this year matches the broad shifts seen in consensus forecasts. In January, Deutsche Bank chief global strategist Binky Chadha highlighted in Yahoo Finance's Chartbook that consensus had consistently underestimated economic growth over the past year. That's continued to play out this year, with quarter-over-quarter projections for economic growth in the first six months of this year increasing significantly since January.

    Deutsche Bank senior US economist Brett Ryan, whose team removed its call for a recession in 2024 on Feb. 20, said the shifting narrative in the US economy has largely been driven by a stronger-than-expected labor market preventing a downturn in consumer spending.

    "The labor market is not usually a leading indicator, but it is a sustaining indicator," Ryan told Yahoo Finance. "And what you earn is what gets spent."

  • Ines Ferré

    Trending tickers on Monday

    Meta (META)

    Meta shares were down as much as 5% on Monday as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump criticized the social media giant in a media interview. Meta stock has had a stellar run this year, up roughly 40%. The stock hit all-time highs last Thursday prior to a market pullback on Friday.

    MicroStrategy (MSTR)

    MicroStrategy bought 12,000 bitcoins between Feb. 26 and March 10 for a total of $821.7 million, according to an SEC filing. As of March 10, the enterprise software maker held 205,000 bitcoin tokens.

    Bitcoin hit new highs on Monday, hovering above $72,000.

    Moderna (MRNA)

    Moderna stock is up more than 10% after the government clinical trials website showed the vaccine maker is working on a mid-stage study to test an experimental vaccination for a type of skin cancer called Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma. Merck is also collaborating in the study.

    Moderna shares are flat for the year.

  • Ines Ferré

    Expectations for medium-, longer-term inflations, says New York Fed survey

    Consumer expectations for long-term inflation climbed, according to a February survey released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    The study showed median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3% at the one-year horizon.

    However, expectations over the next three years rose to 2.7% from 2.4% and for a five-year horizon increased to 2.9% from 2.5 %, according to the February Survey of Consumer Expectations.

    The reading highlights why Federal Reserve officials want to continue to see the rate of inflation decline before lowering interest rates. The markets anticipate a cut in June.

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released Tuesday morning.

  • Ines Ferré

    Oil declines ahead of key inflation data, crude reports this week

    Oil futures slid more than 1% before paring losses during Monday's session ahead of monthly crude updates and key inflation data out this week.

    West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was trading below $77 per barrel while Brent (BZ=F) exchanged hands at just above $81 per barrel.

    Monthly oil updates from oil alliance OPEC are due to be released this week as well as data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

    Investors will be paying attention to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out Tuesday morning. A hotter-than-expected inflation print could indicate the Federal Reserve may wait beyond June to cut interest rates. The Producer Price Index (PPI) will also be released Thursday morning.

  • Ines Ferré

    Nvidia stock pares losses, turns positive

    Nvidia (NVDA) shares turned positive on Monday morning, gaining as much as 1% after opening the session lower.

    The chipmaker has been closely watched by investors as the leader of an AI-fueled rally hit the pause button last week. Nvidia shares lost more than 5% last Friday, fueling concerns of a broader market move lower after the major averages' recent all-time highs.

    Other Big Tech movers on Monday included Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), which gained more than 2%. EV giant Tesla (TSLA) also rose 2%, while iPhone maker Apple (AAPL) gained 1%.

    Meta (META) shares slid more than 5%, the largest decline among the Nasdaq 100 stocks.

  • Ines Ferré

    Meta stock declines 5%, drags on Nasdaq

    Meta (META) shares declined more than 5% early Monday, dragging on the Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC).

    The social media giant stock also weighed on the S&P 500's Communications Services Select ETF (XLC), down about 0.6%.

    Former President Trump said in a CNBC interview on Monday that a ban on TikTok in the US would only make Meta's rival social platform Facebook bigger.

    The US House's Committee on Energy and Commerce recently voted to push forward a bill pressuring TikTok parent company ByteDance to divest ownership of its US operations, citing user data concerns. The Senate has not voted on the bill yet.

  • Brian Sozzi

    The numbers powering crypto's surge

    Bitcoin (BTC-USD) barreled its way to a new record today above $72,000.

    Coinbase (COIN) shares are up 80% in the past month.

    And Robinhood (HOOD) co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev sounded like a leader ready for his platform to partake in the bitcoin halving event big-time next month in a new Yahoo Finance interview. More from my interview with Vlad here.

    As important as the headlines driving crypto are the numbers driving the headlines.

    Some context from Bernstein this morning:

    "In the last 40 trading days since ETF launch on Jan 10, Bitcoin ETF inflows have crossed $9.5 billion already. In the last 30 days, Bitcoin ETFs have been on an inflow run rate of ~$370 million per day. At this run rate, Bitcoin ETFs would surpass our 2025 inflow estimates within 166 trading days for rest of 2024."

    Bitcoin ETF flows have been strong.
    Bitcoin ETF flows have been strong. (Bernstein)
  • Ines Ferré

    Stocks open lower, bitcoin trades above $72,000

    The major averages opened lower Monday with consumer discretionary and tech stocks leading the losses.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) \slipped roughly 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) shed 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slid about 0.5% following a sharp decline for techs on Friday.

    Nvidia (NVDA) shares were down less than 1% on Monday. The decline comes after a 5% decline on Friday.

    Bitcoin gained more than 4% to trade above a record $72,000 as investors counted down to crucial inflation print on Tuesday.

    Investors will be watching for the Consumer Price Index report out on Tuesday for clues about when the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week reiterated the Fed wants to be more confident that inflation is cooling before easing up on borrowing costs.

  • Brian Sozzi

    All eyes on Nvidia

    All eyes on Nvidia (NVDA).

    The stock has been weakening all morning long in the pre-market following Friday's sharp intraday reversal that caught a lot of investor attention.

    With macro data and earnings releases this week on the slower side, the action in Nvidia is likely to dictate the broader market's moves.

    Some call-outs from various notes this morning:

    “At one point on Friday, the third largest company in the world, Nvidia, was up 92% YTD. The 5-month return for the S&P 500 semi-index was 84%, the highest since 1999. A consolidation in the AI trade has been overdue for a while now, so Friday's key reversal day could signal the start of that unwind.” -BTIG

    “In 2000 years I'm not sure if $250 billion has ever been wiped off a stock in 3 hours before. That's what happened to Nvidia on Friday as the stock went from being around +5% up to -6.5% down intraday before closing -5.55%. Then in after-hours trading on Friday, it was down almost another -3%. Remarkably it was still up +6.38% on the week, +21.3% in March so far, and has still posted a tenth week of consecutive gains. That said, the sell-off late in the week meant the S&P 500 (-0.65% Friday) was down -0.26% for the week, and just missed out on advancing for 17 of 19 weeks for the first time since 1964.” -Deutsche Bank

  • Brian Sozzi

    Latest Reddit IPO details

    The Reddit IPO roadshow kicks off today, a source familiar with the matter tells me.

    A debut on the New York Exchange is slated to come within the next two weeks.

    A couple of highlights from the company's amended S-1 filing that just hit the wires:

    • IPO is expected to raise about $450.9 million in proceeds.

    • Valuation range for Reddit targeted at $5.8 billion to $6.4 billion, or $31 to $34 a share.

    • About 1.76 million shares are being set aside for Reddit users.

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