AFL - Aflac Incorporated

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
34.88
+0.01 (+0.03%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
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Performance Outlook
  • Short Term
    2W - 6W
  • Mid Term
    6W - 9M
  • Long Term
    9M+
Previous Close34.87
Open35.09
Bid0.00 x 900
Ask0.00 x 1000
Day's Range34.69 - 35.47
52 Week Range23.07 - 57.18
Volume3,092,203
Avg. Volume3,969,985
Market Cap25.027B
Beta (5Y Monthly)0.89
PE Ratio (TTM)8.76
EPS (TTM)3.98
Earnings DateJul 28, 2020
Forward Dividend & Yield1.12 (3.21%)
Ex-Dividend DateMay 19, 2020
1y Target Est41.73
Fair Value is the appropriate price for the shares of a company, based on its earnings and growth rate also interpreted as when P/E Ratio = Growth Rate. Estimated return represents the projected annual return you might expect after purchasing shares in the company and holding them over the default time horizon of 5 years, based on the EPS growth rate that we have projected.
Fair Value
XX.XX
Undervalued
11% Est. Return
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Frankly, it's not worth adjusting your insurance policy (especially to a premium policy) to address a situation that occurs so infrequently.Not only that, your chances of getting Covid-19 are very slim. Roughly speaking, there are 328 million people in the U.S. At time of writing, there are 1.26 million total cumulative cases of coronavirus here. Thus, we're talking about a disease that has only impacted less than 0.4% of the population.Don't get me wrong - I'm not minimizing this pandemic. But I just don't see the impetus for UNH stock. Sure, people will forever remember the coronavirus, but I doubt they'll switch or upgrade insurance policies over it. The Pandemic Is a Negative for InsurersAs you know, the rising cost of health care has been a vexing issue for patients along with the electorate. However, not having access to health care is a scarier thought for many folks. That's why for those of us that can afford it, we put up with the escalating costs.If you believe the above bullish argument for UNH stock, then you're assuming the outbreak provides an incentive for UnitedHealth. Clearly, the collective health risk has caused people to examine their coverage with "what if" scenarios. But I don't think an outlier is enough to convince people to pay more money for premium care.Indeed, I look at it from the opposite angle. When the coronavirus broke out in a substantial way and disrupted our health care networks, people were incentivized not to visit the hospital or primary care clinic. With so many sick people and medical professionals often working without adequate protection, you were taking huge risks to subject yourself to that environment.Yet at the same time, you were paying your monthly bills as if nothing happened. This then causes people to examine the extreme cost of paying for protection against an event that might not occur.If anything, I see a catalyst for supplemental insurance companies like Aflac (NYSE:AFL), which covers more common unexpected events, such as a broken limb. Because it's supplemental, people can choose whatever services they wish to enhance their overall coverage profile. But besides that, the concept of a bump up in premium covered care doesn't strike me as plausible in this environment. It's All About the EconomyThe Department of Labor will release its April jobs report today. I don't need to know what the number is to know that it's terrible. On Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) released its employment stats, which showed that the private sector shed more than 20 million jobs.Current projections call for the April jobs report to disclose 22 million employment positions lost. That would mean a decade's worth of jobs have evaporated in a span of weeks. It's a staggering thought.And in this paradigm, it's incredibly difficult to reconcile how UNH stock will thrive. Generally, UnitedHealth plans cost more than other coverage programs. Perhaps the first wave of unemployment numbers didn't impact UNH because they disproportionately affected lower-income workers.But if this economic malaise continues, it's inevitable that higher-wage earners in business services and management roles will get the axe. In my opinion, it's already happening. Either way, the middle class cannot avoid the coronavirus. And that would present huge challenges for UNH stock for which I'm not interested in staking my money.A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * America's 1 Stock Picker Reveals Next 1,000% Winner * 25 Stocks You Should Sell Immediately * 1 Under-the-Radar 5G Stock to Buy Now * The 1 Stock All Retirees Must Own The post 3 Reasons to Think Carefully Before Betting on UnitedHealth appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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