American International Group, Inc. (AIG)

Last amendment(#3) to IPO filed 6/13, almost one month ago. Unless SEC is woefully understaffed or just simply way behind on things one would hope/think they could respond to an amendment within 30 days since they obviously suggested to the company that something was not sufficient with the initial filing and 2 subsequent amendments. In other words, it should only be Amendment 3 that the SEC needs to review and that should not take a freaking month to do. They, (AIG/Corebridge) should be telling us the SEC has approved the filing and they are just waiting for market conditions to improve or they should have filed amendment 4 by this time. Especially since they told us this should be done by end of Q2. They OWE us an explanation.

Significant progress on Life and Retirement separation from AIG, with key steps taken toward the establishment of a standalone capital structure, public filing of the S-1 registration statement, Corebridge Financial, Inc. (Corebridge) brand debut and strong independent additions to the Corebridge Board of DirectorsAnnounced asset management relationship with BlackRock to manage up to $150 billion of liquid assets for AIG and CorebridgeGeneral Insurance combined ratio of 92.9% improved by 5.9 points from the prior year quarterGeneral Insurance adjusted* accident year combined ratio of 89.5% improved by 2.9 points from the prior year quarterNet income per diluted common share was $5.15 compared to $4.41 in the prior year quarterAdjusted after-tax income* (AATI) per diluted common share increased 24% to $1.30 from $1.05 in the prior year quarter, driven by a $373 million increase in General Insurance underwriting incomeRepurchased $1.4 billion of AIG common stock in the first quarter of 2022AIG Board of Directors increased the share repurchase authorization to $6.5 billion$9.1 billion of AIG Parent liquidity at March 31, 2022

Trying to figure out when stock tanked during CC and believe it was when they said net 2020 premium was going to be flat with 19 at 25 billion. AIG ceded 28% of their premiums in 2019 vs 22% in 2018 vs Chubbs 20% in 2019. That 8% difference between them and Chubb is worth 2.7 billion pre-tax, and we know AIG doesn't have to cash pay taxes for a while. The 5% move for them from 18 to 19 was 1.9 billion difference in net premium. Perplexed why/how they can reduce limits and increase deductibles and get huge price increases yoy BUT they still need to increase reinsurance ceded by 5% and do it at a rate 40% worse than Chubb. What kind of policies had they been writing in the past? Perhaps they should tell us occasionally what the Cat Losses would have been had they not reinsured. It's hard to fathom they would need to give up 2.6 billion to what Chubb is doing to protect against CAT losses. Again, what kind of risk were you taking in 2018 when you ceded 1.9 billion less in premium and your deductibles and limits were apparently 50% greater than in 2019. I guess another way to check the CAT loss protection out is to see what AIG's 2019 CAT losses were vs. Chubb's. What do we get for the 2.6 billion. I will check that and get back to you.

Appear to be adding tremendous liquidity which should speed debt reduction(assuming debt is callable) and more importantly buybacks. Investment book in L & R was sold in July for 6.8 billion minimum(that was value of investments). Affordable housing will be sold in fourth quarter with 4 billion cash being sent to the parent. 2.2 billion dollars from Blackstone L & R 9.9% deal and then another 2 billion potential from the L & R IPO. Was hard to decipher but it appeared they were intimating on the call that the L & R IPO may go above another 9.9% which would mean more than 2 billion. That's almost 15 BILLION of liquidity excluding earnings. I've cited several times about how they are overcapitalized at both P&C and L&R so it makes sense they would sell investments for cash and then put that cash to work in some fashion.
The value of P&C is now roughly 21 billion if you assume the Blackstone valuation of L & R at 22 billion is accurate. Where will they put the 15 BILLION to work? Could they do it all, except the 2 billion buyback in 21? That means 13 BILLION and that excludes earnings for the next two quarters with last quarter's earnings at 1.3 BILLION.

If you saw me climbing a tree for apples, and you saw the best fruit at arm's length from the ground, would you naturally ask me why I haven't bothered to pick that fruit too? What if my response was that, I'm just too busy climbing this tree, because " it's hard, but I'm really good at it"?

Obviously the proverbial "low hanging fruit" are stock buybacks, the higher fruit are the harder and riskier underwriting selection and corporate reorganization. While I'd like to think they can do that too, it frustrates me to think they cannot free up a $billion or two per year to buy back stock at such a steep discount. Seriously? They are going to retire 4% debt, when the dividends alone saved on buybacks would be over 2.6%, and the instant tangible booked profit would be 16+%. That's not even counting the very real value in the other 30+% booked for DTAs and AOCI. Brian may know how to grow apples, but he sure doesn't know how to pick them.