|Day's Range||0.721 - 0.728|
|52 Week Range||0.6792 - 0.7559|
The New Zealand dollar fell rather hard during the week, but found support near the 0.71 level, and bounced significantly after a lot of fear had been tossed into the marketplace.
The U.S. dollar remained lower against a basket of other currencies on Friday as fears of a global trade war kept the greenback down and Trump threatened to veto the spending bill. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell 0.30% to 89.20 as of 9:29 AM ET (13:29 GMT). China promptly retaliated with plans to announce tariffs of its own against the U.S., rising concern among investors of a global trade war.
The rising prospects of a trade war saw equity markets tumble through the Asian session, with demand for the Yen on the rise, as the markets continued to respond to trade tariffs, which has left the Dollar on the back foot. Risk aversion will provide support for the EUR, while the Pound will be in the hands of the Euro Summit.
Look for the elevated volatility to continue as investors await the next move from China.
The U.S. dollar was higher against a basket of other currencies on Thursday but struggled for momentum as fears of a potential global trade war surfaced. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.20% to 89.46,as of 12:27 PM ET (16:27 GMT), above its overnight low of 89.04. U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce $60 billion on Thursday in tariffs on Chinese imports directed at its technology sector and aimed at curbing the theft of U.S. technology.
The New Zealand dollar initially fell during trading on Wednesday, but as the Americans got closer to releasing their monetary policy statement, people started to do a bit of position squaring. This leads to a very interesting set of possibilities.
With its sustained trading beneath 200-day SMA, the NZDUSD is likely to extend recent drop towards 0.7140 and then to the 100-day SMA level of 0.7120 unless it trades below the 0.7185 SMA figure. If prices continue declining after 0.7120, the 0.7070, the 0.7055 and the 0.7030-35 may become sellers’ follow-on targets. On the contrary, a daily closing beyond 0.7185 could help the pair to revisit the 0.7215 and the 0.7250 resistances ahead of confronting the 50-day SMA level of 0.7290. During the pair’s additional upside past 0.7290, a downward slanting TL figure of 0.7335 and the 0. ...
It’s all about the FED today and, while the markets are expecting a rate hike, how many rate hikes will be projected for the year will be key. Across the Pond, UK unemployment and wage growth figures will also be in the spotlight ahead of tomorrow’s BoE monetary policy decision.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, market expectations for a March rate hike are 94.4 percent as of Tuesday afternoon.
Early Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting. They offered very little new information for traders.
The main range is .6780 to .7437. Its retracement zone at .7108 to .7031 is the primary downside target.
The Euro reversed earlier losses on Monday after investors revived bets that the ECB may raise rates sooner than previously thought.
The U.S. dollar was lower against a basket of other currencies on Monday as news of progress on Brexit caused sterling to surge. “Decisive steps” have been made between the United Kingdom and the European Union on the agreements of the Brexit transition deal, officials said on Monday. The draft withdrawal bill was jointly published by the UK and EU and showed that complete agreement had been reached on Phase 1 points negotiated in December in regards to financial settlement and citizens’ rights.
There are no major reports today but traders should be on their toes for any news about possible tariffs against China, retaliation in response to President Trump’s recent tariffs on steel and aluminum and more shake-ups in the White House.
The major market driving events this week will be the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate decision and FOMC Press Conference.
The Dollar/Yen was pressured last week by political uncertainty in U.S. President Donald Trump’s cabinet and renewed worries about trade wars.
The New Zealand dollar initially tried to rally during the trading sessions that made up the previous week, but as you can see did fail at the 0.7350 level. Because of this, we continue the overall consolidation that we have been in over the last couple of months, as the market has not been able to overcome the stringent resistance above.
5 Year Daily Chart of the VX futures shows that as long as the VX futures remain over $16.28, the equity index futures will be weak. For The Emini S&P (ES), as long as we stay below 2783.50, we are in a short setup for the S&P. The morning price action today may likely try a run-up into the initial resistance zone in the 2763.50 area and even into the secondary resistance line to about 2772.75 and this has been the usual practice in recent days, attempt a move up and fail to support levels.
Investing.com - The dollar was pinned near one-week lows against a basket of the other major currencies on Thursday as concerns over trade protectionism and political turmoil in Washington continued to weigh.
The New Zealand dollar has made a strong move to the upside during trading on Tuesday, as economic numbers of the United States showed strength yet again. Because of this, it looks as if the market is taking on a bit more risk appetite, and therefore the New Zealand dollar benefited.
With the failure to sustain its bounce off the 50-day SMA, EURUSD reignites the importance of the same SMA level before crucial inflation release. Should the CPI figures disappoint USD Bulls, the pair may continue recovering towards 1.2360 and then to the 1.2480 but a month-long descending trend-line, at 1.2420, could confine its following upside. Given the pair’s daily closing beneath the 1.2150, the 1.2090-85 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.2030 could become Bears’ favorites.
Investing.com - The dollar moved higher against a basket of the other major currencies on Tuesday as investors looked ahead to U.S. inflation data later in the day which could offer insights into the pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year.
The Australian Dollar continues to receive support in reaction to President Trump’s granting of an exemption to Australia from his new tariffs on steel and aluminum.
The Dollar/Yen posted a gain on Monday as investors kept an eye on a suspected cover-up of a cronyism scandal involving Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his close ally, Finance Minister Taro Aso.
The New Zealand dollar fell during trading on Monday, in a bit of a “risk off” move. However, I think that there is plenty of support underneath, so I think it’s only a matter of time before the buyers return. The 0.7250 level underneath is massive support, and I think that we will continue to go towards the 0.73 level above.