QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD

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146.84

-3.37

(-2.24%)

At close: 02:26PM EDT

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K
I don't think NVIDIA will recover from this $2B miss very easily. This may be the final straw for NVIDIA as the darling of the Nasdaq. Who will replace them? I think QCOM and AMD are the benefactors here. AMD is still a bit over valued and will also feel the QCOM impact - but AMD is taking share from NVIDIA and Intel to more than make up for it. AMD's revenue is half of QCOM - but showing strong growth and margins. Their Achilles heel is their reliance on X86 over ARM. I think the darlings of NASDAQ, where the money will flow, will be shared by QCOM and AMD going forward. They are the next two leaders in this space. The next decade will be QCOM without a doubt and likely AMD. This starts now and into FY23. $2B miss is just an incredible fall for NVIDIA who is losing share in Auto and AI - and also DC to AMD.
K
While some company's are threating macro headwinds (NVIDIA) and reducing forecasts - QCOM is actually increasing their spending and locking in long term contracts. Read the tea leaves.

Qualcomm agreed to buy an additional $4.2 billion in semiconductor chips from GlobalFoundries's New York factory, bringing its total commitment to $7.4 billion in purchases through 2028, according to a filing released Monday.
K
Under the radar, but VERY HUGE is QCOM's AI QTI AI 100. The king in AI processing is NVIDIA as we all know. However, QCOM's AI 100 architecture crushes NVIDIA in throughput and latency - all at much lower power. Note...NVIDIA logic is very good and likely beats QCOM - easily fixed. The only thing lacking for QCOM was validation from a major server vendor. Well, that just happened - HPE last week announced support for QTI in their AI accelerator on the HPE Edgeline servers (See Aug 2 Forbes). This is significant for three reasons 1) To get support and validation from the largest server vendor in the world is not an easy task - months of testing and validation. 2) To get this validation means there are large customers asking for it - otherwise HPE would not spend the $$ and time.
K
NVDA warned. NVDA expectations were $8.1B now $6.7B. Blamed on gaming and DC - Macro headwinds. Yet QCOM sees strong growth. Anyone see a correlation? The intelligent edge is where the growth is and NVIDIA is not getting that growth. When QCOM has an AI engine that performs the same as NVIDIA at 50% less power... what do you think will happen? Connect the dots. GPUs are going to the intelligent edge and QCOM will soon be the leader - Auto and PCs being the big drivers in 2023. Now, per my posts below, QCOM is also in DC (at the edge) with HPE and soon others. This is shaping up very well.
K
Amon's prepared remarks in FYQ2: Seem relevant, so I thought I would post it. Emphasis of ** is mine. If there are two sexy items that investors get excited about, it is - Auto/ADAS - GPU/AI. The latter (GPU/AI) appears to be flying under the radar, but soon to be exposed.

Our one technology road map across wireless connectivity, advanced edge processing and power-efficient AI is incomparable across our peer group. **In fact, advanced processing and artificial intelligence are the fastest-growing silicon content areas for Qualcomm.**
s
I don't see any up or down movement in this stock as positive or negative when the volume is almost half of the average. Having said that, the PE of this stock with its projected growth rate to be less than the average of the S&P 500 is criminal.

The average historical S&P 500 is 15.97 which translates with a very conservative EPS of 12 to 191.64. If we want to be even more conservative the median of the S&P 500 is 14.89 which again at an EPS of 12 we are looking at 178.68. Forget the fact the current S&P 20.84 which would put us at 250.08. There is absolutely NOTHING in the horizon of the next 5 years that would indicate QCOM should have a PE ratio of less than than the historical S&P 500 mean. NOTHING. If anything, the technological leadership in mobile communications of the company should put it comfortably above current S&P 500 PE.

We will get there and fast, 2-3 years when EPS is 15 plus PE of this company will be over 25 and then momentum players would be falling all over themselves to buy in. That's how it goes.
M
Gaming crypto what u expect
with nvda.

QCOM connecting the world, one device at a time
Bullish
K
Per Analyst (Investor) Day last November. IOT in FY24 would be $9B. To date: FY20=$3B, FY21=5.1B, FY22=$7B - so FY23 likely will hit $9B minimum. A year early on target and it has only been 10 months since the guide. Add on the handsets were guided to grow "at least (their words)" with SAM growth of 12% minus the Apple 80%. Now we have Apple so handsets are mid-teens. Looking at FY23 - combining Auto (ahead of schedule) and IOT ($2B ahead) and Apple (80-% upside) and Samsung share pickup beyond SAM... I see 20% YOY as a conservative estimate. This is without upside from NUVIA and PCs and AI engine. I am really looking forward to the upcoming FY22Q4 ER when they talk about FY23 outlook...
R
Of course we've never been shorted by these hedge funds under investigation. Never. Never.......duh
B
GOD poster here what a comedy. All this with such a hi PE. Dangerous. Qcom on the right side of trade here shortterm/midterm/longterm.
L
FOSS Patents: Nokia wins two patent injunctions against OPPO in Munich (on top of two previously-granted Mannheim injunctions): Apple may be next in line
k
EPS has doubled in two years. PE = 40 justifiable, but it's only 13.4.
K
As it relates to what is going on with Apple and QCOM. You will notice that prior ERs, Amon would say the trade off with Samsung is a good one...etc. He would also say, "they know where to find us". During this ER, Amon said essentially... No comment. We feel good about our modem roadmap and we are the leaders in Modems (actual quote below). Amon has always downplayed modems as they are now a SOC/CPU/GPU company, but not with this comment. This is a big change from previous and I think most of us are smart enough to read between the lines. For those who are not I will - QCOM is in negotiation with Apple and have a lot of leverage because they are the leader in modems and Apple has nowhere to go. I would guess the negotiation on the table is QCOM wants to have a long modem contract in order to provide any discounting to Apple - or no contract at all.
""Brett, we're not providing any Apple updates at this time. And we feel pretty good about our modem road map and 5G. And I think you should expect that Qualcomm will continue to be a leader and especially as modems becoming more difficult as supporting more than one end market beyond smartphones."
K
I like AMD, good company - good growth - good management. But they are pulling in $1.00 per share (this Q) compared to $3 from Q...and that on half the revenue QCOM is and carry a market cap EQUAL to QCOM ($160B). I understand their margins are better and they are seeing a nice growth trajectory YOY... but come on? That really seems out of whack. I know, broken record, but QCOM should be trading today at $240 minimum.
E
I have followed all the chats here for a year as I am a shareholder. The one thing I do not recall anyone commenting on is that I read 65% or more of QCOM sales are to China. If the relations there continue to escalate over Taiwan is there not a possibility of business stopping between them like happened with so many companies selling to Russia? Would that not cut revenue by 2/3?
T
Steve Weiss, the big Bear on Halftime bought QCOM, just saying.
B
Qcom is the utility company of the digital age. And everything digital will transmit/move thu a qcom system to the cloud or network connected to it.
K
Let me see if I can get this straight, we have heard nothing but recession for the last several months - I mean nothing but recession talk. Interest rates are set at 2.5 and mortgage 30 year remains around 4%... the Fed is hiking to 4% by end of year (baked in assumption). Now we have a Jobs number that essentially shows workforce reduction is not happening. Oil has gone down... which should bring inflation numbers down (maybe - although this new bill may negate that). QCOM is recording record numbers and forecasting 6 months ahead with strong growth... yet the market sells off on this news? Something tells me we will see a reversal today...but who knows.
G
GlobalFoundries and Qualcomm Announce Extension of Long-Term Agreement to Secure U.S. Supply Through 2028

Following the recent passage of the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act last week, GlobalFoundries (Nasdaq: GFS) (GF), a global leader in feature-rich semiconductor manufacturing and Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. today announced they are more than doubling their existing strategic global long-term semiconductor manufacturing agreement previously entered into by GF’s and Qualcomm’s respective subsidiaries. Today’s announcement secures wafer supply and commitments to support U.S.-based manufacturing through capacity expansion at GF’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing facility, in Malta, New York.
Bullish
K
A little analysis while things are slow. Looking ahead to FY23 which is the big unknown with regard to QCOM revenue and earning's growth. Analysts today are still using QCOM's guidance which included a loss of 80% of the Apple revenue. This guide was roughly in the area of mid-single digit growth for FY23 for both Revenue and Earnings overall. Now, let us do the job of an Analyst and see what is likely to be expected. My Analysis below is very conservative considering the unknown economic impacts we are facing.

When Akash was asked about their Dec Quarter (FY23Q1 / CY22Q4). His response was he expects strong growth from FY22Q4 to FY23Q1. So I looked at the revenue and earnings growth from Q to Q last year to determine what their FYQ1 (CYQ4) will look like - and the growth compared to a year ago - as this is a good indicator of FY23 overall growth to expect as we move forward.

Without boring you with the math and assuming they hit the upper range of their FYQ4 guide - Sept Quarter - Using the diluted non gaap, I see earnings in the area of $3.80 per share and revenue in the area of $12.8B
- This constitutes a 15% YoY growth for FY23

Upside factors not included in above -
1) Stronger growth in FY23 handsets considering 100% Samsung
2) Margin expansion considering higher growth in Auto/IOT which both bring higher margins
3) Ramping growth in IOT (I think we will see this ramp in FY23)
4) Nuvia and PC impact - assumed $0 in above
5) Bigger impact of mmwave adoption in FY23 than FY22 (very likely)

In summary - if everything stayed the same with a slight downward economic impact on consumer purchases - we see 15% YOY for QCOM in FY23. However, I am an optimist and think that QCOM will likely end the year 20% or higher. Either of these is very good considering the climate and valuation of QCOM today.

In the Q4 ER, will QCOM provide an updated FY23 guide from Analyst Day? I expect whatever is happening with Apple will be the catalyst that will "force" QCOM to revise. I expect they will say something like moving from mid-single digit growth to mid-teens growth is expected for FY23 during their Q4/EOY ER.