Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ)

Daily Spotlight: Inflation Is BurningThe latest Consumer Price Index report again showed broad-based inflation pressures in the U.S. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 9.1% increase in overall inflation (year-over-year) in June, up from 8.6% in May and driven by energy prices that were 42% higher, new car prices that were 11% higher, food prices that were 10% higher, and transportation prices that popped by 9%. The only category that has not soared out of control this year has been Medical Care Commodities and Services, where prices are increasing at a still-rapid but more-normal 4.8% rate. Outside of Energy, rates of change moderated last month for a handful of categories. Indeed, the core all-items less food and energy index has risen at a 5.9% pace over the past year, down from the 6.0% pace reported for the past month. Crude oil prices have fallen 20% from early-year highs and we expect energy prices to decline in the weeks and months ahead. Even so, the Fed meets later this month and still has a lot of work in front of it to bring core inflation down to its target of 2.0%. We look for another 75-basis-point rate hike by the central bank in July, and further hikes at future meetings as the Fed tries to bring inflation under control.