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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)


NasdaqGM - NasdaqGM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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126.3785-0.51 (-0.40%)
As of 2:45PM EDT. Market open.
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  • https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN19G0EX

    Push on with the 'great unwinding', BIS tells central banks
    Major central banks should press ahead with interest rate increases, the Bank for International Settlements said on Sunday, while recognizing that some turbulence in financial markets will have to be negotiated along the way.
    www.google.com
  • an ominous formation on the daily over the past week or so. a significant top may be in
  • TLT hits 130, and beat SPY YTD performance.
  • I long TLT for a lot of reason..

    one of them is hedging for BAC... BAC up more than TLT.. DougKass is a shiatty man..
  • Durable goods order negative... BA orders down.. PE new high..

    TLT is too cheap.
  • Capital good order is shiatty... Yet BA up again..
  • Europe will not buy the US Long Bond to Arb against their low rate 10s. Game over soon. Ill probably go short near the close.
  • Longs are about to exhaust themselves. Waiting on the sidelines to short.
  • TLT about to hit election day lows. Meanwhile, bonds and stocks have both rallied in 2017. Expect equity sell-off and normalization in the relationship.
    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/532599-david-sims/5001465-bonds-reach-key-levels

    Bonds About To Reach Key Levels - David Sims
    seekingalpha.com
  • Golden cross tomorrow.
  • $130 GAP needs to be closed.
  • Golden Cross for the first time since Janet over-estimated the strength of US economy.
  • I think is a mistake today. Fed Funds @ 1.25% with dots conservative 2 hikes brings the daily FFR to 1.75%. Even if I assume no more rate increase, 1.75% is much better than 2.15% tied up for 10 years. Owning this makes no sense.
  • Fed to cut interest rate in September.
  • Should see $130 next week
  • President Trump told Janet, "cut the interest rate, biaxch"
  • Raise the debt cieling on September, cut interest rate to zero.
  • Break 127, push all in for $140.
  • Will see $130 next week
  • Recession --> TLT -->150