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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)


NasdaqGM - NasdaqGM Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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125.20-0.49 (-0.39%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT

125.20 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 7:34PM EDT

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  • What's the yield now on the 20+ TBond? Inflation will probably exceed the rate in a few year. I can understand short term bonds for parking cash, but I don't know of any sane person who is buying long term bonds today. Watch what happens when the Fed starts unwinding in a month or two.
  • $140 when US government raises the debt ceiling.
  • Yellen said plenty and the market is being stupid again. Bank deposit rates will move higher she said. Hmm, that helps the long bond? The Feds normal balance sheet $1-2 trillion. She said by 2022 the balance sheet will be normal. That's about $4 trillion of debt which was off market being sold over the next 5 years. I see the 30 year back above 4.5% in 2018. This could quicken if Trump gets his tax cuts passed. It appears there is some profit taking today. Nothing I heard today points me in a different direction. I'd love to hear an opposing view, but as they say, they'd be fighting the fed.
  • The FED is anticipating new tax laws which will stimulate the economy. They need to get away from the artificial low rates and reduce their balance sheet. Europe over the long term will raise rates. The future for the long bond is dim imo. Long bond yields will go back to pre-financial crisis levels. I am not sure where gold or stocks will be next year, but I am pretty certain rates will be a lot higher and long bonds stand to be effected the most.
  • Jeff Gundlach is predicting more pain for longer term bonds (as the yield on the 10Y trends above its 200 DMA and the yield on the 30Y has just ticked above its 200 DMA, although still below the 100 DMA). Gundlach is one of a handful of bond analysts that I pay attention to, and he’s had an uncanny ability to predict short-term moves (as far back as March he was predicting that the yield on the 10Y would break below 2.25%, which we’ve seen). Per Bloomberg, he’s now reiterating his year-end call of 3% for the 10Y. That seems unlikely, as every other market would break before those levels were reached, but I also wouldn’t bet against the guy. If we see the yield on the 30Y much above 3%, I’ll once again be a buyer of the Long Bond. I wouldn’t mind another ‘Taper Tantrum” like we saw in 2H of 2013. That provided one of the best buying opportunities in history….
  • https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN19G0EX

    Push on with the 'great unwinding', BIS tells central banks
    Major central banks should press ahead with interest rate increases, the Bank for International Settlements said on Sunday, while recognizing that some turbulence in financial markets will have to be negotiated along the way.
    www.google.com
  • an ominous formation on the daily over the past week or so. a significant top may be in
  • TLT hits 130, and beat SPY YTD performance.
  • I long TLT for a lot of reason..

    one of them is hedging for BAC... BAC up more than TLT.. DougKass is a shiatty man..
  • Durable goods order negative... BA orders down.. PE new high..

    TLT is too cheap.
  • Capital good order is shiatty... Yet BA up again..
  • Europe will not buy the US Long Bond to Arb against their low rate 10s. Game over soon. Ill probably go short near the close.
  • Longs are about to exhaust themselves. Waiting on the sidelines to short.
  • TLT about to hit election day lows. Meanwhile, bonds and stocks have both rallied in 2017. Expect equity sell-off and normalization in the relationship.
    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/532599-david-sims/5001465-bonds-reach-key-levels

    Bonds About To Reach Key Levels - David Sims
    seekingalpha.com
  • Golden cross tomorrow.
  • $130 GAP needs to be closed.
  • Golden Cross for the first time since Janet over-estimated the strength of US economy.
  • I think is a mistake today. Fed Funds @ 1.25% with dots conservative 2 hikes brings the daily FFR to 1.75%. Even if I assume no more rate increase, 1.75% is much better than 2.15% tied up for 10 years. Owning this makes no sense.
  • Fed to cut interest rate in September.
  • Should see $130 next week