|Bid||119.51 x 1000|
|Ask||119.66 x 1000|
|Day's Range||119.39 - 120.12|
|52 Week Range||111.90 - 124.20|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||3.26|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.15%|
With the government shutdown now in its fourth week (the longest ever) and 800,000 federal workers on furlough, the risk of recession has increased significantly.
U.S. Treasuries and bond-related ETFs strengthened toward the end of 2018 as investors looked to a safe haven to stabilize their investment portfolios, and this bond segment may continue to offer security ...
Most of Gundlach’s 2018 Calls Were Spot On—What about 2019? (Continued from Prior Part) ## How near are we to a recession? Currently, one of the questions on the minds of most investors is whether we are entering a recession. According to a chart shown by Jeffrey Gundlach, if we consider the way junk bond spreads have generally behaved six months ahead of recessions, we’ll find that there’s no immediate contraction on the horizon. He notes, however, that according to the red line in the graph above, the recession risk is rising even if it’s still relatively early. ## Flashing yellow Gundlach is somewhat concerned about the high-yield junk bond (JNK) market, which he’s said is now “flashing yellow.” He added that while this could be a “false negative,” it’s “something we’re going to have to watch very, very carefully.” Gundlach also thinks that the corporate bond market has the potential for negative surprises. He thus advises investors to use the strength of junk bonds as a gift and get out of them. ## Yield curve and recession fears Regarding his outlook on the yield curve, the bond king has said that contrary to conventional wisdom, he expects the bond curve (TLT) (BND) to steepen. He noted that the yield curve will flatten but will steepen before a recession begins. At the beginning of December, part of the US Treasuries yield curve inverted for the first time since the recession, with the spread between five- and three-year Treasury yields narrowing to -0.01 percentage points. The most-watched spread, the one between the two- and ten-year Treasury yields, also narrowed the most it had since the previous recession. The markets (DIA) (IVV) have been concerned that more hikes from the Fed could invert the curve, which has usually been an accurate predictor of upcoming recessions. Continue to Next Part Browse this series on Market Realist: * Part 1 - Most of Gundlach’s 2018 Calls Were Spot On—What about 2019? * Part 2 - Jeffrey Gundlach: How to Survive the Market Zigzags in 2019 * Part 4 - Why Gundlach Expects a Wave of Corporate Downgrades to Come
Jeffrey Gundlach expects 2019 to continue to be a volatile year. Gundlach believes that higher yields on bonds (HYG) (BND) will hurt stocks in what he’s called a “tug of war,” as reported by CNBC. Gundlach believes that due to buybacks, the equity markets have turned into a collateralized debt obligation residual, which he believes is “getting thinner and thinner, riskier and riskier.” He added, “So, the balance sheets of corporations are balanced on ever-dwindling equities as they buy back shares and increase their leverage ratios.
Why Fed Could Be in a Dilemma after Strong US Jobs Report ## Job additions zoom past expectations The US jobs report for December was released today. The job growth in the US surged by 312,000, zooming past economists’ expectations of 180,000. Not only this, but there were also upside revisions in November’s job additions to 176,000 from 155,000, and October’s were revised to 274,000 from 237,000. The major gains in December were led by healthcare, restaurants and bars, construction, and manufacturing. Average hourly earnings, the most closely watched piece of the jobs report, rose by 3.2% from the same period a year ago. The sequential growth was 0.4%. Both these measures surpassed expectations, which were calling for an increase of 3.2% annually and 0.3% sequentially. ## Unemployment rate The third key measure of the jobs report, the unemployment rate, increased to 3.9% from 3.7% in November. However, this doesn’t signal any negative news, as the rate increased as more workers joined the workforce. The labor force participation rate increased to 63.1% from 62.9% in November. The broader measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and workers holding part-time jobs remained steady at 7.6%. This strong report comes close on the heels of other indicators that have raised markets’ concerns about a global slowdown. Yesterday, the ISM (Institute of Supply Management) manufacturing index fell to 54.1 in December compared to an estimate of 57.9. The index also reached the lowest level since November 2016. This coupled with Apple’s (AAPL) guidance cut amid the slowdown in China took its toll on the markets. The Fed will most likely be in a bind given the conflicting signals from the labor and financial markets. The labor market remains a bright spot in an otherwise deteriorating macro environment. So, while the Fed (TLT) might want to pause given the slowdown concerns, a tight labor market could prompt it towards tightening. ## Market reaction The markets opened higher today on the stronger-than-expected jobs report and strong gains in the tech sector led by Intel (INTC) and Netflix (NFLX). At 10:00 AM EST, the S&P 500 (SPY), the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA), and the NASDAQ Composite (QQQ) were trading up by 2.17%, 2.20%, and 2.44%, respectively. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was down 1.1% as the US dollar climbed on a strong report.
Citigroup’s (C) US equity strategist, Tobias Levkovich, said that stock market investors have finally entered panic mode after the wild ride at the end of 2018. According to CNBC, Levkovich said this panic indicates “high probabilities of making money (with average 18% upward moves looking out 12 months).” The firm’s sentiment gauge has a good track record in predicting euphoria, which typically precedes a pullback and panic and is usually associated with a potential surge.
The US Department of Labor (VTI) is set to release December employment data on January 4. What Wall Street wants from the December jobs report is not very clear. While a strong jobs report would mean continued strength in the US economy, it could also entail a continuation of gradual rate hikes by the Fed. The markets definitely don’t want to see this at the moment.
Likely as a result of investors’ leaning toward defensive assets late in 2018, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT) jumped 6.17% in December. TLT’s December bullishness has the exchange ...
U.S. Treasury bond exchange traded funds continued to strengthen, with yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. government notes touching an 11-month low, amid heightened concerns over global growth. Over the past three months, the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) gained 4.1% and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rose 5.4% as yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes dropped down to 2.66% after reaching as high as 3.22% back in October. “If 2.64 percent is broken to the downside, look for a move to 2.49 or 2.48 percent on 10-year yields as selling pressure continues on the global equity complex,” Tom di Galoma, managing director at Seaport Global Holdings, said in a note.
Bulls versus Bears on Wall Street: Time to Buy Gold in 2019? Unlike other banks, BNP Paribas has a negative bias for gold going into 2019. Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas, is negative on gold (SGOL)(GLD) and other precious metals (JNUG) in 2019 and prefers holding Treasuries (TLT) to gold and silver.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) is overweight on precious metals going into 2019. In its preview for 2019, BAML strategist Michael Widmer and his team noted that the market is close to extremely bearish on the metal. BAML uses four variables to forecast gold prices (GLD)(JNUG): the US dollar (UUP), US real interest rates (TLT), cross-asset volatility (VIX), and oil prices (USO).
In a year marked by increased interest rate hikes, Treasury bonds and related exchange traded funds still managed to rally toward the end of the year as market volatility and uncertainty pushed investors ...
Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, thinks that after the ugly December for markets, investors’ panic is in the later stages. According to Paulsen, the rally is positive for the market outlook in 2019. In How to Position as Fund Managers Turn Extremely Bearish, we highlighted how fund managers are turning bearish with bond allocations surging and equity allocations declining.
One instrument of choice to profit from in a stock market sell-off is to buy the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is a pure play on lower long-term Treasury yields as the flight to safety puts tremendous downside pressure on long-term interest rates, suggests income expert Bryan Perry, editor of Cash Machine.
As reported by CNBC, Ray Dalio feels that “the world by and large is leveraged long,” believing that the next bear market could be very painful as most are not prepared for it. At the Greenwich Economic Forum, Dalio said he doesn’t “think there’s much to protect investors” during a downturn. While Dalio didn’t explicitly call for a sharp downturn, he insisted that investors should have a “strategic asset allocation mix.
Even defensive sectors are slumping. Last week’s market plunge took a toll on normally defensive, lower beta groups, including consumer staples, real estate and utilities. For example, the Utilities Select ...
As the Dow tanks and tech stocks enter a bear market, there is no end to panicky headlines about the stampede to cash and bonds. The truth is that wealthy investors have been putting significant amounts of their assets in fixed income and money markets or other cashlike instruments since well before the recent volatility started.
Money-Printer-In-Chief On Chopping Block? Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell has incurred the wrath of the Donald of the weekend after a 4th hike in interest rates by the Federal Open Market Committee has arguably brought down stock prices to critical levels bordering on a bear market for the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY), though the Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) […] The post Market Morning: Trump Fumes at Fed, Treasury Auction Bonanza, Junk Bonds Get Junkier, Government Shuts Down appeared first on Market Exclusive.
For most of the year, gold prices (GLD) have languished, thanks to a strong US dollar (UUP), hawkish Fed rate hike outlook, and strength in the equity markets. For the last few months, though, some of these factors seem to be reversing course. Equity markets, for one, have remained quite fragile and volatile (VIX) since October.
“Bond king” and DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has been quite vocal about the S&P 500 (SPY) heading for new lows. In Jeffrey Gundlach: S&P 500 Headed for More Lows, Fed Shouldn’t Hike, we highlighted why Gundlach believes the Fed shouldn’t have kept rates (AGG) so low for this long.
The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting concluded yesterday. The Fed was widely expected to raise rates for the fourth time this year by 25 basis points, and it did. Lately, some doubts had crept into investors’ minds about whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell would go ahead with the hike given equity market weakness and increasing pressures from President Donald Trump and some well-regarded economists.