41.41 +0.16 (0.39%)
Pre-Market: 5:16AM EST
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|Day's Range||40.90 - 41.28|
|52 Week Range||37.58 - 52.08|
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January BAML Survey: Fund Managers Bearish, but No Recession YetBAML survey and fund managersBAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) conducted a survey that polled 234 global investors with $645 billion in total assets under management between January
Chiavarone blamed the market turmoil seen late last year on the Fed, which he said gave Wall Street mixed messages on its monetary policy. According to Chiavarone, doing nothing will translate into upside — especially for dividend stocks since they're tied so closely to rising interest rates.
To help investors keep up with the markets, we present our ETF Scorecard. The Scorecard takes a step back and looks at how various asset classes across the globe are performing. The weekly performance is from last Friday’s open to this week’s Thursday close. Despite worries about trade wars and an economic slowdown across the board, the U.S. job market is making great strides. In the last month of 2018, the U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs, nearly double the figure expected by analysts. The showing for November itself was revised up by 21,000 to 176,000. At the same time, hourly earnings increased by 0.4% in December on average compared with 0.3% expected by pundits. Such a rise in hourly earnings has not been seen since September. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate jumped from 3.7% to 3.9%, a sign the labor market is expanding and more people are joining the labor force. Amid market turbulence, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attempted to ease market concerns, saying he was aware of the risks stemmed from raising interest rates too quickly and was listening carefully to what the markets had to say. Stocks posted a strong rally this week. On Thursday, Powell spoke again, saying the Fed can be patient on monetary policy given the stable inflation. The Federal Reserve minutes revealed that policymakers have become more dovish, finally acknowledging the risks related to a slowdown in China, trade wars and political turbulence. U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped dramatically in December, from 60.7 to 57.6, signaling a deteriorating sentiment. U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended January 4, following two straight weeks of flat gains. Stockpiles have not seen a weekly rise since the end of November when they ended a ten-week streak of gains. U.K. economic output expanded 0.2% in November, beating expectations of 0.1%. The upbeat figure comes as the country still struggles to reach a Brexit solution, with the government and the Parliament at odds. An increasingly likely scenario is to push back the March 29 exit date to avoid chaos.
Most of Gundlach’s 2018 Calls Were Spot On—What about 2019? ## Assessing Gundlach’s predictions So-called bond king Jeffrey Gundlach, who is also the CEO of DoubleLine Capital, made his predictions for 2019 on a variety of topics, including debt markets, stock markets, Bitcoin, the state of the economy, and interest rates, in his annual “Just Markets” webcast on January 8. Before we look at what Gundlach expects for the year ahead, let’s have a look at what he predicted last year and how many of those predictions actually came true. ## Stock markets to turn negative One of Gundlach’s key calls for 2018 was that the equity market would end the year in negative territory. He said it would be completely different from what we experienced in 2017 and that it was payback time. In December 2018, Gundlach said, “I’m pretty sure this is a bear market.” He also said he expected the S&P 500 to fall below the lows it hit early in 2018. These predictions came true, and December turned out to be the worst December for markets since 1931. The S&P 500 (SPY), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), and the NASDAQ Composite Index (QQQ) fell 6.3%, 5.7%, and 1%, respectively, in 2018. Gundlach was also right about emerging market equities (EEM). He suggested that it isn’t a good time for traders to be buying them, but long-term investors might benefit. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fared much worse than US markets. In April, Gundlach described Bitcoin as the current dot-com bubble. He also said that Bitcoin had rallied and peaked in 2017 along with equity prices. Bitcoin prices have been mostly falling since peaking in December 2017. ## Some misses However, Gundlach wasn’t right on all his predictions. His expectations regarding a big downside in the US dollar (UUP) didn’t come true. Moreover, he was very bullish on commodities (XME) (XLE) and even said, “What I mean by massive is not a 30% gain, it is 100%, 200% or even 400%.” This prediction also didn’t come true, with most commodities providing negative returns for the year. With the above information as our context, let’s see what Gundlach is predicting for the economy and the markets in 2019. Continue to Next Part Browse this series on Market Realist: * Part 2 - Jeffrey Gundlach: How to Survive the Market Zigzags in 2019 * Part 3 - Gundlach: Junk Bond Market Is Flashing Yellow on Recession * Part 4 - Why Gundlach Expects a Wave of Corporate Downgrades to Come
While the winter season typically brings a festive spirit, investors have only just begun to spread the joy in the New Year. December 2018 proved to be worrisome for many investors as the major indices experienced some their worst pain in a decade. Understandably, there are still some investors who are seeking shelter from the storm. Nevertheless, risk-tolerant contrarians can use this time to consider emerging-market stocks to buy. At first glance, the notion seems ludicrous. Since the beginning of October 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has hemorrhaged badly, erasing nearly 16% of market value. More critically, common wisdom indicates that the U.S. is the international bellwether. In other words, wherever the Dow goes, the rest of the world will follow. But for those looking to pick up strong companies at severely undervalued rates, emerging-market stocks represent compelling stories. Sector-based exchange-traded funds, such as the benchmark iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:EEM) have suffered steep declines throughout 2018. As a result, these investments haven't lost much ground in recent months, perhaps because the worst has faded. InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips On the flipside, the domestic markets could be due for sustained turmoil. While other international indices never quite got traction in 2018, the Dow stubbornly managed to go against the grain. At one point, it even appeared that blue chips would once again enjoy a standout year. But that didn't prove to be the case at the end of 2018. However, because many investors are still shying away from any equity class, emerging-market stocks potentially offer a path to long-term profitability. Admittedly, it's a risky play because the U.S. anchors everyone else. That said, while domestic investments might still struggle, the bad news has already been baked in for several foreign names. * 10 Stocks You Can Set and Forget (Even In This Market) For the adventurous souls, here are ten emerging-market stocks to buy: ### America Movil (AMX) Source: Shutterstock When it comes to innovations in the telecommunication industry, most of the developments center on the big guns, such as Verizon (NYSE:VZ) or AT&T (NYSE:T). Because they lever significant resources, a conservative portfolio will feature some exposure to these stalwarts. But for greater upside potential, look south to the border at America Movil (NYSE:AMX). According to the its website, America Movil is the "leading provider of integrated telecommunications services in Latin America." In addition, if you exclude Chinese and Indian consumers, the company features the largest base of wireless subscribers. Since Latin America has always represented a growth opportunity, America Movil's dominant position signals a must-buy for AMX stock. More importantly, management is aggressively implementing the technologies and infrastructure necessary for the 5G rollout. In September, the company announced that it will be the first company to offer 5G services. Verizon beat them to the punch, but that hasn't stopped America Movil from gaining a foothold in Puerto Rico. In my view, there's nothing better than emerging-market stocks with the goods to deliver. ### Cemex (CX) Source: Dan Davison via Wikimedia (Modified) For obvious reasons, the term "building" now has a sour undertone in Mexico. Nevertheless, contrarians should take a look at Cemex (NYSE:CX). Headquartered in Monterrey, CX stock offers exposure to one of the biggest building-materials firms in the world. Moreover, Cemex has a strong global presence in Central America, Europe and the Middle East. Unfortunately for shareholders, the October 2018 rout devastated CX stock over a short timeframe. Over the trailing 90 days, the company lost over 30% of its market value. While that is normally cause for serious concern, I believe Wall Street is ignoring key positives. * 10 Virtual Assistants for the Future of Smart Homes Fundamentally, management has significantly improved its stability. Throughout the middle of this decade, massive debt levels significantly impeded Cemex. Not only that, the company's net income consistently saw red ink. However, CX has turned the ship around recently, eliminating its debt and maintaining respectable growth and profitability. ### Grupo Televisa (TV) Source: Flash.pro via Flickr (modified) Like so many traditional media outlets, Grupo Televisa (NYSE:TV) suffered steep losses this year. Since the January opener, TV stock has dropped more than 33%. Admittedly, Grupo Televisa is one of the riskiest emerging-market stocks to buy. As we all know, the cord-cutting phenomenon has negatively impacted American media giants like Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA). But Latin American audiences have particularly gravitated towards streaming entertainment. For instance, Mexico binge-watched the most content on Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) in 2017. So why take a shot on TV stock? For one thing, the company wields two powerhouse channels in Univision and Telemundo. Both are obviously very popular in Central America, but they also facilitate a path toward Spanish-speaking U.S.-based audiences. Another important factor is demographics. Mexico has a growing and young population, which makes them an obvious marketing target. In addition, Generation Z leans strongly Hispanic. These two tailwinds should eventually lift TV stock to a surprising turnaround. ### Wal-Mart de Mexico (WMMVY) Source: Mike Mozart via Flickr Generally speaking, Walmart (NYSE:WMT) provides a reasonably stable investment during bull markets and lean cycles. While broader volatility can impede any name, a big-box retailer offers a convenient platform for essential household goods. So if you like "Wally World," you should consider adding Wal-Mart de Mexico (OTCMKTS:WMMVY) among your stocks to buy. As I mentioned earlier, Mexico's demographic is a goldmine for advertisers and virtually all businesses. This is because percentage-wise, Mexico has very few old people, who are unlikely to shop for the latest trends. Instead, the majority of Mexicans (40.5%) fall under the 25 to 54 years age group. Moreover, nearly 28% are aged zero to 14 years. * 7 Dow Jones Stocks Set to Charge Higher In other words, Mexican retailers can expect a constant flow of recurring consumers over the next several decades. Logically, WMMVY stock stands to benefit handsomely from this favorable dynamic. ### TIM Participacoes (TSU) Source: Rodrigo Soldon Via Flickr Thanks to its blistering speed, the upcoming 5G network opens the door for multiple applications. As a major player in the Brazilian telecom industry, TIM Participacoes (NYSE:TSU) is a prime pick among emerging-market stocks. Recently, I featured TSU stock for its broad coverage, writing: "The underlying company was the first mobile operator to establish a presence in all Brazilian states. Currently, TIM has 56.2 million customers under its belt, and 33.1 million are 4G customers. Overall, the telecom firm has a 24% market share in its home market." But especially under this current context, we should note that TSU stock absorbed significant pain in the first half of 2018. Since mid-September 2018, though, shares have not only stabilized, but they have steadily gained traction. I anticipate this trend to continue as we go through 2019. In recent years, management has focused on paying down debts and instilling fiscal discipline. Their improved profitability should endear them to investors looking for some predictability. ### Cosan (CZZ) Source: Shutterstock It's no secret that many emerging-market stocks benefit from rising energy and commodity prices. Usually, rapidly developing nations leverage their natural resources to gain a leg up on the competition. But with broader weakness cratering most industries, energy and agricultural firm Cosan (NYSE:CZZ) appears a lost cause. However, the markets might be signaling a possible recovery. After nearly halving from this year's high, CZZ stock is on a veritable comeback trail. Since mid-September, shares have gained a very impressive 28%. Additionally, CZZ is charting a series of higher lows, suggesting nearer-term upside. * 7 Renewable Energy Stocks to Buy for Sunny Long-Term Returns But regardless of what happens over the next few weeks, I believe Cosan is a long-term winner. CZZ stock features exposure to the natural gas distribution business, where the underlying industry could continue to rise based on geopolitical pressures. Furthermore, its ethanol division aligns with society's push for alternative-fuel sources. ### VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM) Source: Shutterstock Among emerging-market stocks, the Vietnamese investment sector represents a radical paradigm-shift for the better. Long associated with the tumultuous Vietnam War, the Southeast Asian country has become a vibrant center for commerce. While individual opportunities remain limited for Americans, interested parties should consider the VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF (NYSEARCA:VNM). I can probably write a book about the importance of Vietnam, and by logical deduction, the VNM fund. Primarily, the country is a critical counterweight to China's dominance. Unless you've been living under a rock, you know that our relations with the world's second-biggest economy is frayed. More worryingly, we apparently have a Presidency unwilling to assert American influence in critical global affairs. Fortunately, the Vietnamese government have their own problems with Chinese aggression. As the old saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Second, Vietnam features a triangular population pyramid. This simply means that the country's elderly population represent a much smaller share. More importantly, the younger adult populace, or those aged between 25 to 30, have the biggest share. As such, you can expect this Southeast Asian powerhouse to lever tremendous influence over the next few decades. ### iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM) Source: Shutterstock The iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (NYSEARCA:EWM) offers an intriguing opportunity for the hardened contrarian. In mid-August 2018, analysts maintained a neutral outlook on Malaysian markets due to a balanced risk-reward ratio. However, these same folks noted that valuations looked attractive. Since then, the EWM has dropped roughly double-digit percentage points. Moreover, the fundamentals haven't changed that much. What really spooked the Malaysian markets is geopolitical concerns involving the China trade war. While this event is obviously a worrisome headwind, it's nothing new. The EWM had previously cratered earlier in 2018 due to deteriorating U.S.-China relations. Evidence suggests, though, that the positives may be taking over the narrative. Malaysia had recently undergone a governmental change. The new administration is working hard to implement all its election promises. So far, Malaysian insiders have noted a slowing in the volatility. * 7 High-Risk Chinese ETFs to Avoid ... For Now Although anything can change this year, the EWM presents an underappreciated upside prospect. ### Emerging-Market Stocks to Buy: Infosys (INFY) Source: Shutterstock Just for the sheer fact that India boasts the second-biggest population in the world, the country offers a natural place to search for emerging-market stocks to buy. Thanks to its burgeoning economy, American investors today have an ample choice of individual names to pick. During this down period, I'd take a long look at technology firm Infosys (NYSE:INFY). Buying INFY stock brings exposure to the company's core divisions of business consulting, information technology and outsourcing. Unlike other sector names, though, INFY features stout fundamentals. For starters, Infosys enjoys an A+ balance sheet: management is sitting on $3.5 billion in cash, and has zero debt. Second, INFY has excellent growth and profitability metrics, along with consistently stable free cash flow. Of course, that hasn't helped INFY stock from taking some losses this year. Since the beginning of September, shares are down 12%. Still, the company hasn't made fresh lows since late October, providing hope for a turnaround. ### VanEck Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK) Source: Shutterstock On the surface level, the African continent seemingly offers an ideal environment for emerging-market stocks to buy. The region is rich with natural resources. Moreover, several African countries feature massive population growth rates. So long as economic development keeps pace, the area can become a goldmine on multiple levels. Unfortunately, that's not occurring due to widespread corruption and administrative mismanagement. So while I want to confidently buy into the VanEck Vectors Africa Index ETF (NYSEARCA:AFK), it remains a highly speculative venture. Adding to the risks is South Africa. The country is on course to repatriate white-owned land and distribute among black South Africans. While I don't want to get into the racial component of this story, the economic threat is rather pernicious. If the government can forcibly take private land -- a fundamental human right -- commerce will inevitably collapse. Worse yet, Zimbabwe attempted similar measures to devastating results. Their ridiculous hyperinflation became an internet meme, and they're still recovering from the damage. So why mention AFK? First, if cooler heads miraculously prevail, AFK could skyrocket. Second, other African countries could potentially pick up the slack. After all, the continent offers viable platforms for commodities and energy extraction. * 10 Top Stock Picks From the Street's Best Analysts Just be careful as AFK is one of the riskiest funds available. As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. ### More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Retail Stocks to Buy for Winning the Online Battle * The 7 Best Stocks in the Entrepreneur Index * 7 5G Stocks to Buy as the Race for Spectrum Tightens Compare Brokers The post 10 Key Emerging-Market Stocks to Buy for Contrarian Investors appeared first on InvestorPlace.
How Ray Dalio Beat the Market and Peers in 2018 (Continued from Prior Part) ## Not “long” any particular asset So, what is it exactly that helped Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates beat the market and peers in 2018? The answer probably lies in the way the fund is designed. Most of the market suffered huge losses in the last quarter of 2018 as equities fell. Bridgewater, however, was having its typical year due to its design, wherein it isn’t usually long on any particular asset. ## Bridgewater’s positioning In a telephone interview with Reuters in December, Greg Johnson, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, mentioned, “We are bearish on equities but it’s a part of a diversified set of conditions across asset classes. That process has allowed us to have our alpha be uncorrelated over time to equity markets.” He added, “We do equally well as equity markets go up or equity markets go down. So, we are having a normal year this year – as good as our typical year – and that is a function of the design of our alpha … we don’t have any tendency to be long any particular asset.” ## Bridgewater’s holdings A lot of hedge fund managers got burned, as they had outsized positions in a few stocks and a lot of them had it in the over-owned tech (QQQ) space. Dalio’s holdings are mostly concentrated in a small number of positions with most of its largest stakes in ETFs. Its top ten holdings form 71% of its total portfolio. At the end of Q3 2018, its five largest holdings were: * the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY): 23.6% * the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO): 21.6% * the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG): 6.1% * the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD): 4.6% * the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM): 3.5% Apart from this, Dalio’s strategy of having a “strategic asset allocation mix,” or having a neutral portfolio during an overall period and then figuring out where there is alpha, could also have helped Dalio beat the market. Continue to Next Part Browse this series on Market Realist: * Part 1 - Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Is Rare Bright Spot in Market Rout * Part 2 - Did Ray Dalio’s Bearish Stance on Markets Help? * Part 4 - Ray Dalio’s Advice Is to ‘Go Counter-Cyclical’
Global investors cheered Brazilian stocks toward the end of last year amid expectations that Jair Bolsonaro will be able to push through changes to help the country's economy recover from a devastating recession. "Sentiment could shift if the administration fails to make headway on pension reform over the next six months, thereby missing this historic opportunity," says one analyst. Jair Bolsonaro's presidential victory in Brazil last year propelled Brazilian stocks to a sharp rally to close out a wild 2018.
Wall Street's analysts and market experts have scores of unique investing ideas and perspectives as we begin the new year. But one common thought across dozens of 2019 market outlooks: Nothing will come easy for investors. Where will the American stock market go in 2019? What sectors will shine - and which ones will fall to the back of the pack? Will Chinese equities rebound? Will cryptocurrencies find their way back into favored status among aggressive investors? Experts from across the spectrum - from Wall Street's most prominent stock-analysis outfits to "boutique" shops that specialize in just one or two corners of the market - have delivered their market outlooks for 2019. Kiplinger's has published its own insights: our economic outlook and our guide on where to invest for the year. But we suggest also taking in the analyst community's views on stocks, bonds and beyond. Digest these key 2019 market outlooks to find investment ideas that fit your portfolio in the new year. They include price targets for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, economic forecasts and various investing strategies. ### SEE ALSO: 19 Best Stocks to Buy for 2019 (And 5 to Sell)
In the previous part of this series, we have seen that Apple (AAPL) may be struggling to increase iPhone sales in fiscal 2019. Apple managed to easily outperform the global smartphone market as shipments rose 0.5% to 46.9 million units. At the end of the third quarter, Apple had a market share of 13.2% in the global smartphone market.
Headwinds, particularly from Washington, blew many developing economies and companies off their track. Predicting how they would fare has proved difficult, no matter how solid their fundamentals and excellent their businesses.
Emerging market stocks fell into a bear market this year after four Federal Reserve rate hikes and the start of a U.S.-China trade war. Emerging markets took a beating in 2018, but next year could be a completely different story. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets EEM exchange-traded fund (EEM), which tracks a broad basket of EM stocks is trading in a bear market, down more than 20 percent from its 52-week high.
Honing in on dollar volume ETFs will reveal the true picture of liquidity. We have highlighted 10 ETFs that have seen higher dollar volume this year.
While talking to CNBC in September, Ray Dalio said that investors should get “more defensive” in the stock market, and warned that stocks’ upside looks limited. He added that the projected returns for stocks relative to cash and bonds (BND) look “sort of about right.”
Lately the news has been so back and forth, so uncertain, that investors could be forgiven for being scared to make new stock picks. Luckily, our experts are here to help, with their exchange-traded fund picks for the Best ETFs for 2019 contest. Others looked overseas — there are two emerging markets and one Mexico ETF in this year’s contest.
U.S. investors are increasingly concerned about Federal Reserve monetary policy, worried that the U.S. economy cannot handle the tighter financial conditions that the central bank’s recent interest- rate hike, its plans for future hikes and a policy of balance-sheet reduction will realize. The Fed is often portrayed as going it alone in their policy of promoting higher interest rates, because both the Japanese and European central banks have kept short-term interest rates near zero. This is the first time since 2011 that more than half of the globe’s central banks were raising rates, up from just 20% tightening a year ago.
The reader’s choice pick is the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:EEM). When it comes to exchange-traded funds, it turns out InvestorPlace readers are pretty highly divided. It shouldn’t be surprising that the Select Sector SPDR funds earned a fair amount of attention.
The "Fast Money" traders share their final trades of the day, including the CBOE, the EEM emerging markets ETF, the XLU utilities ETF and CME Group.