|Bid||0.00 x 900|
|Ask||0.00 x 1200|
|Day's Range||42.23 - 42.84|
|52 Week Range||28.96 - 45.45|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.35%|
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US crude oil output rose by 100,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 11,000,000 bpd last week, a record high. It was 1,571,000 bpd (~16.6%) higher YoY (year-over-year).
After losing strength last week, crude oil started this week on a weaker note and declined as the week progressed. On Thursday, crude oil started the day on a mixed note and was trading with weakness at four-week low price levels in the early hours.
According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), natural gas inventories rose by 51 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,203 Bcf in the week ended July 6. In the past five years, natural gas inventories have risen by an average of ~77 Bcf at this time of the year. However, on July 12, natural gas August futures fell 1.1% because of supply concerns.
The US Dollar Index rose ~0.45% to ~94.95 on July 17. The index rose due to bullish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about strong US economic growth. Active August WTI oil futures rose 0.03% to $68.08 per barrel on July 17. The appreciating US Dollar Index and the bearish drivers we discussed in Part 2 of this series might have limited the upside for oil prices.
Following a weak performance last week, crude oil started this week on a weaker note and declined in the first two trading days. Carrying forward the sentiment, crude oil opened lower on Wednesday and was trading with weakness at three-week low price levels in the early hours.
According to the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) report on July 11, US crude oil inventories fell ~12.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to ~405.2 MMbbls in the week that ended on July 6.
To prepare well in advance, Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has adjusted his portfolio with some of his favorite picks: Invesco Senior Loan, SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, iShares MSCI Brazil, Tortoise MLP and Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity.
After declining for two consecutive trading weeks, crude oil started this week on a weaker note by declining to three-week low price levels on Monday. Carrying forward the weakness, crude oil opened lower on July 17. Crude oil was trading with mixed sentiment in the early hours.
On July 16–20, the events listed in the following table could impact oil and natural gas prices. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is expected to release its monthly drilling productivity report on July 16. The report could influence oil and natural gas prices for the next few weeks.
Crude oil lost strength last week and declined for the second consecutive trading week. Carrying forward the weakness, crude oil opened lower on July 16. In the early hours on Monday, crude oil was trading with weakness at three-week low price levels.
Jeffrey Gundlach: We are more cautious about 2019 than about this year. The one indicator that is somewhat negative is the yield curve, which has flattened pretty relentlessly for the past year or two as the Fed has been tightening. There’s a narrative out there that says the flattening yield curve isn’t sending any message about a recession, and that couldn’t be more wrong.
After pulling back last week, crude oil started this week on a stable note and declined as the week progressed. Following a weak performance for two days, crude oil started Friday on a weaker note and declined to three-week low price levels in the early hours.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that the US crude oil output was steady at 10,900,000 bpd (barrels per day) on June 29–July 6. The output was steady at a record high level for the fourth consecutive week. The US crude oil output increased by 1,503,000 bpd or ~16% from a year ago.
Energy had a rough start to the year, but the sector has since bounced back, and exploration and production companies have seen the lion's share of the gains, with SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (XOP) up 15.8% year to date, more than three times the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLE) 5% gain. Certainly, crude prices have turned higher, which is a help, but that's not the only thing going on here. Energy stocks, including formerly spendthrift E&P companies, have also shown more capital discipline in a way that's inspiring investors. Morgan Stanley's Devin McDermott cites these factors and others in his bullish initiation of the large-cap E&P sector Thursday, writing that "the stage is set" for these companies to deliver strong free cash flow and capital returns "supporting continued strength in the group." He writes that after years of spending beyond their means and disappointing investors, E&P companies are finally reaping the benefits of higher oil prices and lower supply costs, and while the tide has turned, plenty of investors haven't realized that it's time to get back into the sector.
The WTI crude oil futures contract fell more than 5% before bouncing into Wednesday afternoon's North American session, posting the biggest one-day decline in 13 months. The reversal has unfolded at long-term Fibonacci and pattern resistance, possibly signaling a multi-year top. Major energy funds have diverged from the futures contract in recent months, stalling at 2016 resistance in January 2018 and dropping into sideways patterns while international trade tensions put a damper on buying interest.
The US Dollar Index rose ~0.1% to ~94.15 yesterday, while August WTI oil futures rose 0.4% to $74.11 per barrel. The appreciating US Dollar Index may have limited oil prices’ upside.
The natural gas rig count was at 187 last week—the same as the previous week. The natural gas rig count has fallen ~88.4% from its record level of 1,606 in 2008. However, US natural gas marketed production rose ~45.8% between January 2008 and April 2018 despite the natural gas–targeted rig count falling. As a result, natural gas active futures have fallen 64.5% since January 2008.
Though the U.S. benchmarks have weathered an unusually jagged 2018 first-half, the market technicals have firmed with a strong third-quarter start, writes Michael Ashbaugh.
According to the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) report released on July 5, US crude oil inventories rose by ~1.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to ~417.9 MMbbls in the week ending June 29. The market expected a fall of 4.5 MMbbls based on a Bloomberg survey. On July 5, US crude oil August futures fell 1.6%.
After a brief pullback last week, crude oil started this week on a stable note by closing higher on Monday. Maintaining the strength, crude oil opened stronger on Tuesday and moved towards the highest levels traded since November 2014 in the early hours.
Between July 9 and July 13, the events listed in the following table could impact oil and natural gas prices. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is expected to release its Short-Term Energy Outlook on July 10. The IEA (International Energy Agency) is scheduled to release its Oil Market Report scheduled on July 12. These reports could influence oil and natural gas prices for the next few weeks.
Keith Bliss of DriveWealth LLC joins Yahoo Finance's Seana Smith from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange to discuss the latest market moves.
Yahoo Finance's Alexis Christoforous and Jared Blikre break down the latest market action after a worker's strike in Norway temporarily shut down an oil and gas rig.
Floor trader Matt Cheslock joins Yahoo Finance's Seana Smith from the New York Stock Exchange to discuss the latest market moves.