This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

That first quarter was one heck of a party -- and now we've had two consecutive quarters of strong gains. As well, there have been five months with gains and 18 out 22 weeks in which the S&P 500 (SPX) has moved higher. And that happened with barely a speck of price volatility. The S&P 500 rose 10.2% in Q1, the S&P 100 (OEX) was up 10.9%, the Nasdaq (IXIC) was up 9.1%, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) was up 8.5%, the S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) was up 9.9%, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) was up 5%. Bonds sold off a bit, the 10-year was up 34 basis points, gold (GLD) was up 7.6%, WTI was up 16%, the U.S. Dollar Index was up 2.4%, and Bitcoin soared 65%.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Monday Tee Up: Is Inflation Still Tracking Lower?

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This weekend, in Vegas, it's the Chiefs versus the 49ers. Usher is the halftime show; Tom Brady appears in a commercial; and Taylor Swift fans add a whole new demographic to the fan base. But aside from all that, there is big money at stake. For our list this week, we present possible ways to invest in the Super Bowl.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The important 3Q23 EPS season is about to get underway -- important because it could signal a return to earnings growth after three straight negative EPS quarters. Consensus estimates for 3Q23 range from low-single-digit growth to low-single-digit declines. Energy could be the wildcard in 3Q23 EPS. Although Energy represents only 4.0%-4.5% of S&P market capitalization, S&P 500 2Q23 earnings less Energy were about flat year-over-year in 1H23. Most models show 3Q Energy earnings down in high-single-digits, and earnings excluding Energy are forecast up in the mid-single-digits. The spike in Energy prices began in June 2023, and Wall Street may be underestimating Energy earnings potential in 3Q and particularly in 4Q23. For 2023, our S&P 500 earnings estimate remains $226, implying low-single-digit growth from 2022 levels. Following a low-single-digit EPS decline for 1Q23 and 2Q23 EPS, we look for growth in 3Q23 EPS, but at less than 3%. As well, we are modeling 4Q23 continuing operations EPS to grow about 11% against a weak year-earlier comparison. Remember, companies always exceed earnings expectations. Second-quarter earnings declined 3%-4% year-over-year, better than preliminary expectations of a high-single-digit decline. Those 2Q results were generally of high quality: just over four-fifths of companies exceeded consensus expectations and the average beat against expectations was above 7%. Over the preceding decade, about 75% of S&P 500 companies exceeded expectations, and those companies on average topped consensus quarterly EPS estimates by about 6%.

With the breakout of war in the Middle East, the price of oil pivoted higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 4.3% to $86.35/barrel, while Brent crude rose 4.2% to $88. Even with the bond market being closed, the 30-year Treasury futures popped 1.4%, the 10-year rose 1%, and the five-year futures gained 0.7%. S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 stock futures initially fell, but stocks eventually recovered during the session on October 9. The SPX added 0.6%, while the Nasdaq and the QQQs were up 0.4% to 0.5%, respectively. That was the second day in a row that equities faced tough news (the previous Friday it was a hot payroll report) and buyers stepped in to save the market. As we often say, it's not the news, but the reaction to the news.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Argus Research believes that ESG investing is a smart option to consider. Companies committed to ESG values typically reflect positive traits from management which often translate into better business. ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investing has come a long way and continues to grow. According to the Global Sustainable Investment Association, global assets under management in ESG strategies were $40 trillion in 2020, up from $23 trillion in 2016 and on track for $50 trillion by 2025. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. In time, the list of industries to avoid increased to include soft drinks, fast food, and oil and gas, among numerous others. But performance of these initial strategies lagged. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across industries that have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights. At Argus Research, we track ESG progress at specific companies as part of our Management analysis -- one of the six points in our proprietary Six-Point System for fundamental research. In addition to reviewing and measuring the ESG proclamations from companies under coverage, we partner with an ESG research firm, JUST Capital, and leverage its analysis and insights. JUST Capital's mission is to drive measurable corporate change to create a stakeholder-centric form of capitalism that reflects the priorities of the American public. JUST utilizes a combination of data-driven research and strategic engagement in an attempt to shift norms and practices in corporate America and the financial markets. JUST ESG Custom Ratings rank stocks in the Russell 1000 on criteria using a scale of 1-100. Drawing on the JUST Capital rankings, we have compiled focused lists of companies followed by Argus Research that are in position to have a "sustainable impact" on the environment, workplace, community, and marketplace. These firms have exemplary records of delivering on the bottom line, and also in improving the environment, contributing to community relations, and showing respect for their employees. We also have a theme model portfolio based in part on ESG criteria. To build the Argus U.S. ESG Theme Model Portfolio, we apply financial concepts such as industry diversification, income generation, risk reduction, and growth at a reasonable price to our various lists. In addition, all stocks must be on the Argus BUY list. For more on JUST Capital's criteria, please visit the JUST Capital website, www.justcapital.com. For more information on the Argus companies, please see our Analyst Reports at www.argusresearch.com. Here are some of the stocks that are currently in the Argus U.S. ESG Theme Model Portfolio.

In this edition, market makes missteps around Google's search; ResMed revs up; industry landscape on consumer packaged goods; and Canfor, LPL Financial, and Boeing.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered so far in 2023, but gains have been driven largely by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise interest rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? Perhaps not yet. We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.8% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. We have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research analysts that are BUY-rated and have impressive Min Vol characteristics of low beta, high yield, high market cap, strong balance sheets, and low risk profiles. Some of the stocks featured in the portfolio are listed below.

Stocks rose on Thursday as investors weighed strong results from PepsiCo and Delta Airlines and awaited the first 2Q earnings reports from major banks on Friday. Inflation data was favorable, as both the headline and core PPI declined in June. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 237,000 for the week ended July 8, below the Reuters consensus of 250,000. The Dow rose 0.14%, the S&P 0.85%, and the Nasdaq 1.58%. Crude oil rose 2% to $77 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1965 per ounce.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Our list this week identifies companies that received an Argus target-price increase in April. As the stock prices of these companies approached their target prices, Argus analysts saw those prices going even higher. We are in the thick of earnings season and our analysts are scouring quarterly reports to evaluate how the companies they follow are doing. With economists busy analyzing economic data to determine whether the economy might slip into recession, companies have been attending to their businesses. Some are weathering current economic conditions better than others. The economic pressures are real - including rising interest rates, inflation, the strong dollar, and wavering consumer spending patterns. These stressors are on top of normal competitive pressures, as companies fight to sell their products and services, outmaneuver peers, and make profits. Looking back at April, our analysts found companies where the business outlook is solid - and went through the mechanics of our valuation framework to adjust target prices upwards. Our framework includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, and future dividends and cash flows. Here are the stocks on which we raised target prices in April. All are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports along with a month-over-month jump in home prices. PepsiCo shares rose after the company posted stronger-than-expected 1Q results, while GM fell despite above-consensus earnings and higher full-year guidance. Meanwhile, the Case-Shiller national home price index rose 0.2% in February after a 0.2% decline in January. However, the year-over-year increase slowed to 2.0% in February from 3.7% a month earlier. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil traded near $77 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1998 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fluctuated in volatile trading on Friday morning as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports and monthly consumer sentiment data. The University of Michigan said that its preliminary consumer sentiment index for February rose to 66.4, up from 64.9 in January and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 65.0. However, the inflation expectations reading was higher. The February survey reported that consumers expected prices to rise 4.2% over the next year, up from 3.9% in January. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.7%. Crude oil rose 2% to $79.50 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1872 per ounce.

Rapidly rising inflation 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those fixed-income returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.5% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate.

We anticipate that activity in the consumer sector, which was the primary driver of GDP growth in 2022, will slow as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates and companies keep cutting jobs. The sector is all-important to the economy and accounts for about two-thirds of GDP. The main driver to the consumer sector is the jobs market. While the domestic employment environment is in better shape than it was two years ago, it is starting to show signs of deterioration. Though the unemployment rate is 3.5%, it seems headed inevitably higher in the wake of layoff announcements from high-profile companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Salesforce.com, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley. Meanwhile, consumer balance sheets appear to be weakening somewhat after multiple quarters of spending growth. A combination of pandemic-related factors -- such as economic shutdowns and aggressive fiscal spending -- resulted in a sharp improvement in household finances in 2020. Indeed, the stimulus program initially lifted personal savings to almost $5 trillion. But that money has been spent, and then some: the personal savings level has come down to $625 billion, below the $1 trillion average level in the decade prior to the pandemic. With savings tapped, a slowdown in the all-important consumer sector seems likely in 1H23. Here are some of our top "cautious consumer" stocks for 2023.

No one needs to tell anyone that these are unprecedented times in the financial markets. But we can add another strange phenomenon to the mix. Some 90 out of 100 times (maybe more), market sentiment follows price. That makes sense, even during bear-market rallies and during the initial lift from a bear low. But not so much this time!

ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investing continues to grow. According to the Global Sustainable Investment Association, global assets under management in ESG strategies had grown to $40 trillion in 2020, up from $23 trillion in 2016 and on track for $50 trillion by 2025. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol and firearms. In time, the list of industries to avoid increased to include soft drinks, fast food, and oil and gas, among numerous others. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as the climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights. At Argus Research, we track ESG developments at specific companies as part of our Management analysis - one of the six points in our proprietary Six-Point Fundamental Approach. In addition to reviewing and measuring the ESG proclamations from the companies under coverage, we partner with an ESG research firm, the JUST Capital Foundation, and leverage its analysis and insights on the topic as well. JUST Capital's mission is to drive measurable corporate change to create a stakeholder-centric, inclusive form of capitalism that reflects the priorities of the American public. JUST utilizes a combination of data-driven research and strategic engagement in an attempt to shift norms and practices in corporate America and the financial markets. JUST ESG Custom Ratings rank stocks in the Russell 1000 on criteria using a scale of 1-100. Drawing on the JUST Capital rankings, we have compiled focused lists of companies followed by Argus Research that are in position to have this type of "sustainable impact" on the environment, workplace, community, and marketplace. These firms have exemplary records not only in delivering on the bottom line, but also in improving the environment, contributing to community relations, and showing respect for their employees. We also have a Theme Model Portfolio based in part on the ESG criteria. To build the Argus U.S. ESG Model Portfolio, we applied financial concepts such as industry diversification, income generation, risk reduction and growth at a reasonable price to our various lists. In addition, all stocks must be on the Argus BUY list. Here are the new stocks that have been added to the Argus U.S. ESG Model Portfolio. For more JUST Score details on these companies, and others in the portfolio, please visit the JUST Capital website, www.justcapital.com.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

More Caution on Earnings, but Still Expect Growth

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 has knocked the stock market into a bear market. While growth strategies have suffered the most, value strategies also have declined. Even year-to-date bond prices are lower. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.0% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 has knocked the stock market into a bear market. While growth strategies have suffered the most, value strategies also have declined. Even bond prices are lower year-to-date. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? Perhaps not yet. We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.0% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min-Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min-Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. We have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research analysts that are BUY-rated and have impressive Min-Vol characteristics of low beta, high yield, high market cap, strong balance sheets, and low risk profiles. Some of the stocks featured in the portfolio are listed below.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors awaited Wednesday's June CPI report for the latest read on inflation. On the earnings front, PepsiCo posted better-than-expected 2Q22 results and raised its full-year sales forecast. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. Crude oil fell sharply to $97 per barrel, while gold traded near $1731 per ounce.

According to our analysis of market returns since 1980, June is not one of the better months for stocks. On average, equity investors in June eke out a 0.3% positive return -- better than only the weakest months of February, August, and September. The winning percentage is 62%, higher than only the 3Q summer months. We note that market returns in June have exceeded 5% only twice in the past 37 years: a 5.4% increase in 1999 and a 6.9% gain in 2019. Clunkers include 2008 (-8.6%), 2002 (-7.2%), 2010 (-6.1%), and 1991 (-4.8%). Last year, the S&P 500 rose 2.1% for the month. June is typically a quiet month for earnings, as the second quarter draws to a close. But don't be surprised by June fireworks on the economic and inflation fronts. The nonfarm payrolls report will be watched closely to determine the strength of the employment segment of the economy. The Fed meets and is expected to raise the federal funds rate another 50 basis points. Inflation data released mid-month may start to show that the Fed's actions are starting to slow price hikes. Or not. Stocks are off to a weak start in 2022 and only in recent days have moved away from a bear market. The inflation data in June and July will go a long way to determining whether stocks move higher from recent lows, or plumb further depths.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Markets have faced difficult times before, with challenging economic environments, wars, disease, banking and housing crises, and inflation much worse than we are seeing now, to name but a few. Of late, stock investors had it very good for a very long time -- but now, finding opportunities requires much more work. There is no secret sauce, but there are principals that are worth reviewing: 1) diversify; 2) look for strong management; 3) look for solid balance sheets; 4) do your homework; and 5) adapt. To assemble this week's list, we looked across several sectors that historically are considered to be the most-shielded from high inflation and high interest rates. We then cross-referenced our coverage universe for companies where our analysts recently raised target prices; that have an Argus Financial Strength rating of at least Medium-High; and that pay dividends of least 3%. Some companies also are featured in our model portfolios (Growth & Income, Equity Income, Growth, and Institutional). Here is our list of companies we believe to be recession-proof, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks plunged again on Tuesday morning, reversing Monday's gains amid continued concerns about inflation, Fed policy, the war in Ukraine, and the expanding pandemic in China. Housing market data was weak. The Commerce Department said that U.S. new home sales fell 8.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000 units, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 765,000. On the earnings front, PepsiCo shares rose slightly after the company posted better-than-expected 1Q results and raised its full-year sales guidance. The Dow fell 1.7%, the S&P 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 3.2%. Crude oil traded near $101 per barrel, while gold rose to $1904 per ounce.

This edition features a roundup of analyst research on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Campbell, JD.com, and Guidewire.

The second reading of U.S. 4Q21 GDP will be released at 8:30 this morning. The initial growth rate was reported at 6.9%, and the first revision probably won't differ much. There may be an upward revision in personal consumption expenditures for services as Omicron fades, perhaps offset somewhat by a downward revision to investment into equipment, as supply chains remain snarled. We will be paying close attention to the trends in the often-overlooked inventory line, as wild swings in this statistic have had an impact on overall growth and on pricing trends. For the three quarters prior to 4Q21, businesses depleted inventories at aggressive rates not seen since the Great Recession. As inventories were eliminated, goods became scarce and prices rose. Indeed, the GDP PCE price index increased 6.5% in 4Q. The good news in the quarter, though, was the businesses have started to rebuild their inventories, and we are optimistic that this trend will continue as the impact of the pandemic wanes. Consistent inventory growth can have two impacts in the quarters ahead. For one thing, it can ease pricing pressure; for another, growing inventories can contribute to positive GDP growth rates.

Stocks plunged on Thursday amid rising tensions over Ukraine. Speaking at the United Nations, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that he expected Russia to create a pretext for an invasion and to attack Ukraine in the coming days. Meanwhile, Russia continued to assert that it was withdrawing its troops and had no plans to invade. Along with the Ukraine news, investors weighed earnings reports from Walmart and Nvidia and new housing market and employment data. First-time jobless claims rose to 248,000 for the week ended February 12, up from 225,000 a week earlier and above the consensus forecast of 218,000. The Dow fell 1.78%, the S&P 2.12%, and the Nasdaq 2.88%. Crude oil traded near $92 per barrel, while gold jumped $29 to $1900 per ounce.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked stocks into a bear market. Though equities recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did three times in 2021 when stocks dropped 4%-5% in a matter of a few days. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-2.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

With the end of 2021 coinciding with a full week of trading activity, insiders maintained a steady outlook -- coming off as neither overtly bearish nor overly bullish. As such, the overall Insider Index from Vickers Stock Research deteriorated only slightly (to -17.60 from -17.52 in the prior week), but remained far better than the average of -21.46 seen throughout the course of 2021. Meanwhile, trading volumes predictably were dampened, with the past week marking the lowest level of insider buying or selling activity across all exchanges since the week of the 2020 presidential election.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning in another volatile session amid continued concerns about inflation and the Omicron variant. Employment data was mixed. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 222,000 for the week ended November 27, up from 194,000 a week earlier but below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 240,000. The Dow rose 1.7%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $66.50 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $1768 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The U.S. economy added 194,000 jobs, below the consensus call of 500,000 and Argus' forecast of 300,000. The report is a sign that the nation's health -- reflecting the spread of the Delta variant over the summer -- continues to have negative impact on the economic recovery. In better news, the unemployment rate dropped four-tenths of a percent to 4.8%; and the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up by 131,000, from 235,000 to 366,000. All told, nonfarm employment has risen by 17 million since April 2020 but is down by 5.7 million, or 3.2%, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. In September, job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and retail. Fewer teachers were hired in September, which likely had a one-time impact on the final count. We expect to see a bigger impact on hiring from the declining number of COVID-19 cases (the seven-day average is now 100k compared to 150k a month ago) and anticipate an improvement in hiring trends heading into the holiday season.

September more than lived up to its fearsome reputation, with a nearly 5% decline for the S&P 500. The Nasdaq suffered a worse decline as growth equities were slammed by rising rates and rekindled inflation fears.

Stocks kept momentum going in July and August. Our analysts have been progressing through earnings season and have come across many stocks that have approached target prices. We set targets through our valuation framework, which includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, and future dividends and cash flows. After adjusting for the latest information, here are some of the stocks on which we raised target prices over the past month. All of the following stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.