|Day's Range||3,104.60 - 3,120.46|
|52 Week Range||2,346.58 - 3,120.46|
Don't let the 'fear of missing out' dictate your investing strategy, said Oscar Loynaz, m+ funds founder and managing director.
Fedspeak from the last two weeks reveals that six of the Fed's twelve regional presidents supported the October rate cut, but six likely did not.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators held “constructive discussions” in a phone call on Saturday to address each side’s core concerns of phase one of the trade deal, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.China’s Vice Premier Liu He, the country’s key negotiator in the trade talks with the U.S., spoke with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, the report said. The call was held at the request of the U.S. negotiators, and the two sides agreed to remain in close communication, Xinhua said.How Trump’s Trade War Went From Method to MadnessU.S. stocks rose to all-time highs and Treasuries edged lower Friday after an American official hinted that the U.S. and China are close to locking down a partial trade deal.The S&P 500 reached another record and gained for the sixth week in a row, the longest streak in two years, after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said late Thursday negotiations between the two countries were nearing the final stages. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which past 28,000 for the first time, and the Nasdaq Composite also hit all-time highs.The dialog on Saturday followed a phone call between the trade negotiators earlier this month, where the two countries signaled they’re getting closer to agreeing on the first phase of a deal aimed at reducing tensions in a trade war that’s slowed the global economy. The three spoke by phone at the time and separately released statements describing the call as “constructive.”See the States Where Trump Trade War Is Hammering China ExportsTo contact the reporter on this story: Linus Chua in Los Angeles at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Matthew G. Miller at firstname.lastname@example.org, Nicholas Reynolds, Shamim AdamFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
The fate of your portfolio is written in the stars. Or at least it can be, if Daniel Greenberg and the professional pranksters behind the “Bull and Moon” investing app have their way.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average marks history on Friday— carving out its first breach of a psychological milestone since mid July, as equity benchmarks mounted an assault on records on the back of hope for progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Stocks on Wall Street have soared to fresh record highs, but it’s not because the economy is flashing a big thumbs-up sign. Far from it.
A pair of ominous patterns are forming in the Nasdaq Composite, which could signal that a stock-market climb, fueled by a hoped-for tariff detente between the U.S. and China, may be starting to unwind—or at least stall out.
There’s plenty for investors to get stressed out about in the coming year, and Deutsche Bank chief economist Torsten Slok’s latest list of the top 20 biggest risks will do little to ease those jitters.
Henry Kissinger, the former U.S. Secretary of State and national-security adviser under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, had dire warnings about the inability of the U.S. and China to resolve their differences on international trade.
Our call of the day says investors wanting to know if stocks have some juice left for the rest of the year should keep an eye on this highflying set.
Elizabeth Warren’s cup of “Billionaire Tears” has become one of the hottest selling items on the Massachusetts senators' presidential campaign web site, claim people familiar.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average marks history on Friday by finishing at a round-number milestone at 28,000, but the blue-chip benchmark couldn’t have scaled the thousand-point hill without a rally in Apple and shares of Home Depot.
You’ve more than tripled your money in 10 years by investing in broad U.S. stock market index funds, having weathered a potential double-dip recession (2010), the fiscal cliff (2012-2013), energy-bond volatility (2015) and a transition from presidents Obama to Trump (2016-2017). A question that’s been forgotten is, “Are you getting paid to take investing risks?” One way to find out is to track valuation, which used to be a key measure for investors, particularly value investors like me. If the present value is greater than the company’s stock value, there is a margin of safety for investors.
Neither corporate profits nor economic data have yet to corroborate the ongoing rally and rotation in U.S. stocks, so the market may be getting ahead of itself and be due for a pullback, analysts and investors told MarketWatch.
In our call of the day, MarketWatch speaks to Citigroup’s chief U.S. equity strategist, Tobias Levkovich, who lays out his big concerns for stock markets in 2020.
Cannacord Genuity strategist Tony Dwyer is once again predicting an S&P 500 retracement. He explains why.
Lance Roberts, chief strategist at RIA Advisors, just placed bets against the S&P 500 in all his portfolios to guard against a looming downturn. And he lays out his bearish cash in a series of charts.
President Trump has not transformed the U.S. economy for the better, as he promised he would. Over the past four years since he began his political career, Trump has promised much faster growth and much higher stock markets. On Tuesday he said that America was back on its way to dominating the global economy, because his policies had made America competitive again.
Even as the market ascends to new heights, wealthy investors are bracing for a turbulent period that could produce a “significant drop” in equity benchmarks in the near term.
The Chinese e-commerce giant (BABA) (ticker: BABA) has been trading on the New York Stock Exchange since it raised $25 billion in a 2014 initial public offering. The price of the American depositary shares has soared 173% from $68 at the IPO to $185.49 as of Friday’s close. Now, the company wants to offer another 500 million new ordinary shares in a listing through the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong.
(Bloomberg) -- An investor probably would’ve panicked if you told her at the start of 2019 that the trade war wouldn’t go away. Or that earnings would fall flat and that a bid to kick out the president would erupt.Fast forward 11 months and nobody seems to care. Volatility in the equity market is flirting with a two-year low, with November rivaling the quietest months in three decades. Stocks are booming a month before Christmas, and not even next year’s presidential race is troubling investors.“You’d think nothing’s happened. It’s incredible,” Paul Brigandi, managing director at Direxion, said by phone. “Volatility’s been depressed. Maybe too depressed, given the uncertainties.”That peace prevails in the face of upheaval has a way of infuriating certain traders, who say investors are deluding themselves with the help of a compliant Federal Reserve. Donald Trump’s twitter might have gone quiet, but give it time -- the calm won’t last.On the other hand, tranquility has been a signature characteristic of the bull market for almost 11 years, with every bet on its long-term disruption proving a loser. While bouts of panic have come faster in the last two years, none has driven the VIX above its long-term average for more than a few months. Viewed from that perspective, traders may just be settling back into patterns that have prevailed since the crisis.It’s so dull that with Friday’s gain, the S&P 500 is guaranteed to go at least 29 sessions without back-to-back declines, the longest stretch since 2005. Peak-to-trough swings have averaged 0.5% a day this month, something that prior to two years ago hadn’t happened since 1993, according to Bloomberg data.Slowly, equities have gone back to the upward grind that marked 2017, the most tranquil year for the S&P 500 since 1965. Ten-day realized volatility in U.S. stocks has fallen below 3 for the first time since October of that year.“The market’s nothingness has continued, which begs the question, is it a sign of a tiring market, or one that simply can’t get knocked down?” said Frank Cappelleri, senior equity trader and market technician at Instinet in New York. “The gains have been small, while the pullbacks have been even smaller. Like it or not, low volatility is an uptrend’s friend.”Such low volatility must mean traders are betting it will storm back, right? The opposite. Going by positioning by hedge funds and other speculators, the smart money is betting on continued tranquility. Such traders in futures on the VIX were net short a record 206,157 contracts as of Tuesday, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.A very 2017 dynamic has been recently at play, with a recovery in bond yields bolstering the appeal of financial firms and allowing them to cushion the blow at times when software shares have gotten knocked. Realized correlations, a key ingredient in volatility since it takes a lot of shares moving together for an index to really swing, have loosened among S&P 500 constituents amid dizzying earnings-season rotations.The Cboe Volatility Index -- a gauge of the 30-day implied volatility of U.S. stocks that is often called the “fear gauge” -- closed this week just above 12 as the S&P 500 inched to a fresh record.True, futures on the index that expire in May are more than 5 points higher -- but the steepness of the slope is almost entirely attributable to how quickly the VIX has fallen. Traders minted money off a near-identical disparity in 2017 by selling volatility and no market meltdown materialized.For now, investors are willing to buy the dip, making every pullback shallow and fleeting. There have only been two down days this month, the put-to-call ratio for stocks has dropped to its lowest level this year, there hasn’t been a single day of a larger-than-1% drop since Oct. 8.“‘Never short a boring market’ is an adage that I think resonates. This market does seem incredibly boring, but you do want to have a good bulk of your portfolio in equities,” Matthew Miskin, a market strategist at John Hancock Advisors LLC in Boston, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “You haven’t seen any euphoria yet. That’s still to come. You’ve got to participate in that. And equities are the best channel to get that done.”Of course, just because things are quiet now doesn’t mean they must stay that way. Last year, gyrations in stocks were comparably small in October, just before the commencement of a risk rout that nearly sent equity indexes into a bear market. Other volatility shocks, like February 2018, were presaged by stocks and volatility rising in tandem.Rising market turbulence is loosely associated with late-stage rallies in some academic literature. Researchers from Harvard University published a study in 2017 listing it as a signal to exit the market in past bubbles, along ballooning share issuance and a concentration in gains among younger companies. Based on that model, even after 10 years and 2,400 points in the S&P 500 the current bull market didn’t even qualify for investigation under their definition of a bubble.For now, subdued reactions to Donald Trump’s tweets show “the market’s become immune,” said Peter Mallouk, president of Creative Planning, a wealth-management firm with about $45 billion in assets. “When he tweeted about China or anything else, the market would react much more drastically and I think now we just price in that’s just how he does business and we try to measure what’s really behind the tweet or messaging instead of reacting right away.”(Updates with VIX close in 11th paragraph.)\--With assistance from Claire Ballentine.To contact the reporters on this story: Vildana Hajric in New York at email@example.com;Luke Kawa in New York at firstname.lastname@example.org;Lu Wang in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at firstname.lastname@example.org, Chris NagiFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
“We could have two years left,” says Carmel Wellso, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. “But we’re at the end of the cycle and one day closer to a recession.”