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Clamoring for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at some point this year is running high, but the Fed may not comply.
Rates for home loans held steady and declined as financial markets bore the brunt of geopolitical upheaval and concerns about lower growth
Treasury yields came off session lows on Friday after a strong retail sales number suggested consumers would continue to spend, a source of solace for investors concerned over the U.S. economy’s health. The 10-year Treasury note yield (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) was virtually unchanged at 2.093% after coming off an intraday low of 2.058%. The benchmark maturity rose nearly a single basis points for the week.
Industrial production rose 0.4% in May, a solid and broad-based gain helped by increased production of pickup trucks and cars, the Federal Reserve said Friday.
Business inventories in the U.S. rose 0.5% in April after remaining unchanged in the prior month, the Commerce Department said Friday. Sales fell 0.2% in April. As a result, the ratio of inventories to sales rose to 1.39 from 1.38 in March. That's how many months it would take to sell all the inventory on hand. Inventories have been exceeding growth in sales in recent months. One year ago, the inventory-to-sales ratio stood at 1.36.
Retail sales rose 0.5% in May and were revised up sharply in the prior month, the Commerce Department said Friday.
U.S. Treasury prices rise Thursday, pulling yields lower, as investors’ expectations for interest-rate cuts gain ground ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week.
The two do not rhyme well, which should be expected when the economic ramifications of a protracted trade war with China are difficult to quantify — as we have no idea how long it will last. To that, I can only add that commodities are Venetian, too, as they clearly agree with the message of the Treasury market (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) And the most important commodity of them all is crude oil (CL00) which accounts for better than 80% of the dollar value of commodities’ trading on global markets. Weakness in Chinese diesel demand, and crude oil prices in general, may mean the Chinese economy is weaker than the official economic numbers indicate.
The cost of imported goods fell in May, reflecting a decline in the prices of most foreign-made goods including those coming from China that have been hit with U.S. tariffs. The import price index dropped 0.3% last month.
The number of people who applied for jobless benefits in early June edged up to a five-week high, but not enough to signal any deterioration in a robust labor market that’s fueling the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. Initial jobless claimed rose by 3,000 to 222,000.
Schwab fixed-income strategist says low economic growth, demographics will keep rates down, writes Howard Gold.
U.S. Treasury yields fall Wednesday after the release of anemic inflation data puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy this year, with market participants fearful of a recession.
Jim Rickards, bestselling author and tireless gold bug, has seen just about everything over his four decades navigating the capital markets. What he hasn’t seen, however, is a better climate for a market “catastrophe” than the one we’re in now.
The tame May consumer price-index did not change economists’ views on when the Fed will cut interest rates. Most still see July as the likely month for the first easing.
These investors say the 2 year/10 year Treasury yield spread indicates recession fears are overblown.
Falling gasoline prices held inflation in check in May, though rent, food and medical care cost more. The consumer price index rose a scant 0.1% in April, the smallest increase in four months.
Treasury yields extended their fall Wednesday after the core consumer prices gauge for May fell short of analysts' expectations. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell 2.3 basis points to 2.112%. The 2-year note yield tumbled 5.7 basis points to 1.869%, while the 30-year bond yield was down 1.9 basis points to 2.595%. Consumer prices rose 0.1% in May, in line with analysts' estimates. But the core measure which strips out for food and energy prices increased by 0.1%, slightly below the 0.2% forecast. Investors say the absence of price pressures could put pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease policy this year, with some traders pointing to July as the most likely month for a rate cut.
Treasury yields fell from their session highs on Tuesday, after U.S. equities gave back ground even as China said it would launch fiscal stimulus measures to spur infrastructure spending across the second largest economy in the world. The 10-year Treasury note yield (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) was virtually unchanged at 2.140%, after touching an intraday peak of 2.177%, while the 30-year bond yield (BX:TMUBMUSD30Y) was down 0.6 basis points to 2.617%. The 2-year note yield (BX:TMUBMUSD02Y) was up 2.2 basis points to 1.922%.
The wholesale cost of goods and services barely rose in May, reflecting easing inflationary pressures in the U.S. amid slower economic growth and fading gasoline prices. The producer price index edged up 0.1%.
President Donald Trump on Tuesday complained on Twitter that the Federal Reserve was keeping interest rates "way too high," allowing "the Euro and other currencies" to be devalued versus the dollar. "The Fed interest rate way too high, added to ridiculous quantitative tightening. They don't have a clue," he wrote. Trump highlighted a Bloomberg story that tourists are flocking to Europe this summer.
Wall Street investors enjoy a multiday rally on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average poised for a six-session advance, but strategists at Citigroup say looming trade tensions still make a bear-market a possibility if the Trump administration’s tariff disputes aren’t resolved favorably.
Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics says the aftermath of tariffs could be a “clear and present danger” to the markets, while Scott Clemons of Brown Brothers Harriman is worrying about inflation. They spoke with Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi.
President Trump weighed in on trade negotiations earlier today, stating that China went back on the deal between the two superpowers. Courtney Dominguez, Financial Advisor at Payne Capital Management, joins Seana Smith on 'The Ticker' to discuss why an interest rate cut by the Fed is not warranted.