|Day's Range||25,678.17 - 25,929.65|
|52 Week Range||21,712.53 - 27,398.68|
San Francisco is home to hot IPOs like Uber, Lyft, Slack and Pinterest. Big swings in the stock market get less attention than sizeable moves with any of the cities biggest publicly traded names.
The yield curve inversion had markets tumbling amid concerns of a coming recession, but what is a "yield curve" and how (and/or why) does it invert?
But rather than call it quits, investors may want to stay invested in stocks as the barrage of potentially market-moving events kick off, from China tariffs to Brexit to central bank meetings, which could yield more global interest rate cuts
President Donald Trump told reporters on Tuesday that he’s delaying some tariffs on Chinese imports to give consumers some holiday shopping relief. Short-seller Jim Chanos used his “Diogenes” Twitter account to question his wisdom.
The bond market sent a warning, and this time the stock market listened. Investors will be looking for clues in the week ahead that policy makers are listening, too.
It’s impossible to forecast where the U.S.-China trade confrontation is going, although given what the bond market is doing, it’s no place good. The markets are trading on headlines that may become economic events, but the worst-case scenario of much higher tariffs and a much bigger slowdown in global trade has not developed yet. In other words, I don’t think we are yet at the point of no return in this trade negotiation.
In the past, China has shown extraordinary restraint in response to U.S. tariffs and President Trump’s critical tweets. This is a critical time for investors. All investors ought to consider doing the same.
Normally, these signs would be enough to make investors plan for the end of the bull market, even if the market has a habit of rising between the first inversion and the start of a bear. But these aren’t normal times.
The U.S. stock market hasn’t yet hit a correction low. Despite a 6.6% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) , including an 800-point drop on Wednesday of this week, many short-term market timers are still giving the stock market’s June-July rally the benefit of the doubt. Assuming this recent bout of weakness lives up to historical patterns, more market weakness is needed before there is a strong enough “wall of worry” among investors to support a tradable rally.
U.S. stocks surged Friday as Treasury bond yields finally stopped falling after a volatile week. Still, they couldn’t climb enough to end the week in the black.
On a day stocks bounced back, NVIDIA shares rose after the company reported a strong quarter, as did those of Deere despite challenges in the agricultural industry.
U.S. stocks were on the rise Friday, but Wall Street was still on track for weekly losses, as U.S. Treasury yields recovered from multi-year lows and investors continued to track U.S.-China trade negotiations.
U.S. and European stocks surged on Friday on expectations the European Central Bank will cut interest rates but the dollar pared gains against the euro after a report said the German government was prepared to take on new debt to lift the economy. The dollar hit a two-week high against the euro as expectations of ECB stimulus weighed on the single currency and bullish data showing a jump in U.S. homebuilding permits to a seven-month high also helped lift the greenback. The euro rebounded to pare most losses after Der Spiegel magazine said the German government would be prepared to ditch its balanced budget rule and take on new debt to counter a possible recession.
Major indexes rallied in the stock market today to cap a wild week as the Nasdaq and small caps led, and the Dow Jones industrials found key support.
U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as an ebbing bond rally and news of potential German economic stimulus brought buyers back to the equities market, closing the book on a tumultuous week. Germany's coalition government is willing to suspend its balanced budget rule and take on debt, according to Der Spiegel magazine, raising hopes that Europe's largest economy could steer itself away from recession and cooling worries over a global economic slowdown. David Carter, chief investment officer at Lenox Wealth Advisors in New York, agreed, but added that underlying anxieties remain.
U.S. stock indexes on Friday finished sharply higher, wrapping up a volatile week for Wall Street, marked by concerns about weakening corporate earnings and uncertainty over the health of the U.S. and global economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average [: DJIA] closed up 307 points, or 1.2%, to 25,886, the S&P 500 index ended 1.4% higher to 2,889, while the Nasdaq Composite Index closed 1.7% higher at 7,896 (on a preliminary basis). For the week, however, the Dow finished 1.5% lower, the S&P 500 ended down 1%, while the Nasdaq retreated 0.8%. The Dow marked its eighth move of at least 1% so far this month, the most 1% moves since December 2018 when it had 12, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Investors will be looking for guidance from central-bank policy makers next week when Federal Reserve officials are slated to meet at the Jackson Hole symposium on Thursday, a day after minutes from the Fed's July 31 policy gathering is released. This past week was marked by heightened anxieties about a domestic recession after the 10-year Treasury rate fell below that of the 2-year Treasury note briefly on Wednesday, a condition that has been an accurate predictor of economic recessions in the months after the so-called yield-curve inversion takes place.
U.S. stocks ended a wild week on an upbeat note, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a 300-point gain and other major indexes followed suit. Yields on U.S. 10-year notes rose, easing some immediate concerns over the inversion of the U.S. yield curve and providing a boost to financials. On Wednesday, the Dow fell 800 points after longer term notes began yielding less than short-term treasuries, traditionally viewed as a sign of impending economic recession.
DOW UPDATE The Dow Jones Industrial Average is rallying Friday afternoon with shares of 3M and Dow Inc. leading the way for the index. The Dow (DJIA) was most recently trading 334 points higher (1.3%), as shares of 3M (MMM) and Dow Inc.
Even as high-probability risks capture the minds of investors, there is a growing combination of lower-probability risks, that could create even more heartburn for investors as the third quarter draws to a close.
There is a high risk that markets might be disappointed in the interest-rate policy signals that emanate from the Federal Reserve’s summer retreat in Jackson Hole late next week, economists say. Fed officials will gather with academics and foreign central bankers next Thursday in the Grand Tetons in Wyoming to discuss the economic outlook. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a closely-watched speech on the challenges facing monetary policy at 10 a.m. Eastern on Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied more than 1%. At 25,892, the blue chip index is still poised to fall for a third week in a row.
Some strategists say there are investments that could benefit from a yield-curve inversion environment.
Stocks got a boost after a report that Germany's government would be prepared to ditch its balanced budget rule and take on new debt to counter a possible recession. "Germany is now telling us that we are going to have to move forward and spend at a deficit in an effort to keep our economy and the broader economy afloat," said Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at INTL FCStone Financial Inc in New York.