SBUX - Starbucks Corporation

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
90.48
-1.58 (-1.72%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
Stock chart is not supported by your current browser
Previous Close92.06
Open92.14
Bid90.41 x 800
Ask90.48 x 1000
Day's Range90.32 - 92.14
52 Week Range54.10 - 99.72
Volume6,972,260
Avg. Volume7,212,900
Market Cap108.305B
Beta (3Y Monthly)0.52
PE Ratio (TTM)32.35
EPS (TTM)2.80
Earnings DateOct 30, 2019
Forward Dividend & Yield1.44 (1.58%)
Ex-Dividend Date2019-08-07
1y Target Est96.33
Trade prices are not sourced from all markets
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  • With Accelerated Buybacks, Starbucks Stock May Take a Hit
    InvestorPlace

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    Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) recently gave a presentation at Goldman Sachs where it lowered its forecast for its fiscal year 2020 ending September 2020. The CFO forecast non-GAAP earnings per share in fiscal year 2020 that would be just 10% above the EPS projected for FY 2019. Investors did not seem pleased.Source: Grand Warszawski / Shutterstock.com This 10% growth rate for FY 2020 will be much lower than the 16% growth expected for FY 2019. More importantly, it will be much lower than the 13% EPS growth rate originally projected for FY 2020 at Starbucks' Investor Day presentation earlier this year:Starbucks stock has been on a tear this year, up over 49% YTD. That was because of the expected increase in SBUX non-GAAP EPS to $2.81 from $2.42 last year, up 16%.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsBut if the FY 2020 non-GAAP EPS growth of just 10% comes to pass, SBUX stock may take a hit -- or at least a breather -- from its impressive rise this year. Share Buybacks Moved ForwardOne of the reasons SBUX stock lowered its outlook is because it moved $2 billion of share buybacks that were expected to be completed in FY 2020 to this year. * 10 Stocks to Sell in Market-Cursed September That means less buybacks next year and hence lower-than-expected EPS for FY 2020. But it also means that there will be less activity in the market helping to push up the Starbucks stock price. In fact, one wonders how much of the price rise this year was due to SBUX stock's aggressively buybacks.For example, based on its latest SEC 10-Q filing in the nine months to June 30, 2019, SBUX has spent $7.97 billion on share repurchases. This was up from just $4.06 billion spent the same period last year, or 94% more. It's very likely that this almost doubling in its buybacks played a significant role in pushing up the stock 49% so far this year.It also is one of the main reasons that Starbucks' non-GAAP EPS will rise 16% this year, since the underlying growth for pre-tax earnings will be up less than 1%, according to one analyst.Why is that? Because the denominator in the EPS ratio has fallen a lot. So far this year SBUX has lowered its shares outstanding by 7.8% through buybacks. It will likely be down 10% by September with the additional $2 billion in share buybacks that Starbucks moved up. What Investors Can ExpectPutting together the series of statements that SBUX has made about pulling forward its share buybacks, it is now not clear how much share buyback activity it will have in FY 2020 (i.e. starting in October 2019).For example, in the third-quarter conference call management said it would complete $4 billion of shareholder capital returns in FY 2020. The $1.44 annual dividend will cost about $1.7 billion. The remaining $2.3 billion was supposed to be used for buybacks in FY 2020. But Starbucks CFO made clear that $2 billion of those buybacks were pulled into FY 2019, i.e. during the quarter ending September 2019.So analysts are going to be looking at whether SBUX stock announces a new buyback program when it reports the Q4 earnings sometime on Oct. 30.If it does, then maybe the 10% EPS projected for FY 2020 will be higher and there will be continuing underlying purchases pushing up the stock.As of this writing, Mark Hake, CFA does not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Mark Hake runs the Total Yield Value Guide which you can review here. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Stocks to Sell in Market-Cursed September * 7 of the Worst IPO Stocks in 2019 * 7 Best Stocks That Crushed It This Earnings Season The post With Accelerated Buybacks, Starbucks Stock May Take a Hit appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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  • 3 Big Reasons I’m Worried Starbucks Stock Is About to Go Cold
    InvestorPlace

    3 Big Reasons I’m Worried Starbucks Stock Is About to Go Cold

    Shares of coffee retail giant Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) have been on fire over the past year, rising nearly 80% over that stretch versus a mere 3% gain for the S&P 500.Source: monticello / Shutterstock.com Ostensibly, the huge rally in SBUX stock makes sense. After a multi-year stretch from 2015 to 2018 wherein competition flattened out SBUX's growth trajectory, the coffee retail giant has since regained its groove, and is now consistently topping Street estimates on the only metric that matters in the retail world -- comparable sales.As comparable sales growth has consistently topped analyst expectations over the past year, SBUX stock has taken off like a rocket ship.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsAt first glance, it makes a ton of sense. But, upon closer inspection, there are some red flags which make me worried that the big rally in Starbucks stock may be on its last legs. * 10 Stocks to Buy for September What are those red flags? Let's take a closer look. The Fundamentals Appear StretchedThe first big red flag on SBUX stock near $100 is that the fundamentals appear stretched.Everyone is celebrating the fact that management issued guidance which calls for Starbucks to be a 3-4% comparable sales grower and 10%-plus profit grower over the next several years. Sure, those are great growth projections. But over the past five years, Starbucks has averaged 5% comparable sales growth on profit growth that was largely above 15%, and often above 20%.During that stretch from 2013 to 2018, SBUX stock traded around 25-times forward earnings. Today, SBUX stock trades at 30-times forward earnings.See the disconnect? Starbucks projects to grow materially slower over the next several years, than it has over the past several years, yet Starbucks stock is trading at a 20% richer valuation than it has over the past five years.That doesn't make much sense. Indeed, history says a 30-times forward multiple just doesn't work for Starbucks stock. The last (and only time in the past decade) that this stock had a 30-times forward multiple was in 2015. In 2016, SBUX stock dropped more than 7%, while the S&P 500 was up more than 10%. The Optics Could Get Ugly In A HurryThe second big red flag on SBUX stock is that, while the optics remain good today, they could get ugly in a hurry.Right now, everything looks good for Starbucks. Traffic growth has come back into the picture. Comparable sales growth is stabilizing. The China growth narrative appears healthy. Margins are stable. The technology and delivery integrations are working.But I'm worried that all those positives could turn into negatives in a hurry.Positive traffic growth? It could turn negative given that indie coffee shops are still rapidly expanding and McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) is being relentless in its breakfast snack and drink menu expansion. Stabilizing comps? They could decelerate again if traffic growth flips back into negative territory from competition. Healthy China growth? Luckin Coffee (NYSE:LK) is growing very quickly in China, and will only become a bigger threat to the Starbucks China growth narrative over time. Stable margins? Competition could erode pricing power, forcing Starbucks to cut prices to drive traffic, which will weigh on margins.Overall, I see very real and sizable risks on the horizon which could turn today's favorable optics into unfavorable optics rather quickly. The Technicals Imply A TopThe third big red flag on SBUX stock is that the long-term technicals imply that the stock could be peaking here and now. Click to EnlargeSee the attached chart. For the most part, Starbucks has traded within very well defined bands dating back more than thirty years. Breaks above the upper band are solid medium-term selling opportunities. Breaks below the lower band are solid medium-term buying opportunities.Right now, SBUX stock is breaking above the upper band of this trading range. If it continues to rally, it will break a trading pattern which has held true for over three decades. As such, I don't think it will continue to rally, and am worried that the next move in Starbucks stock could be significantly lower. Bottom Line on SBUX StockIt seems everyone loves Starbucks stock right now. But, when I see everyone falling in love with Starbucks stock, I am reminded of the age old Wall Street adage -- stocks advance on a wall of worry, and decline on a slope of hope. * 7 Industrial Stocks to Buy for a Strong U.S. Economy That adage doesn't always ring true. But, in this case, I think it will. There are enough red flags on SBUX stock here to warrant staying away from this red hot stock for the foreseeable future.As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. 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