|Bid||0.00 x 47300|
|Ask||0.00 x 40000|
|Day's Range||25.70 - 25.75|
|52 Week Range||23.09 - 26.02|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||5.50|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.76%|
During the third quarter, gold’s price (GLD) fell ~5%, dipping below the psychologically important level of $1,200 per ounce it touched in August.
Could Gold Be the Best Bet amid Increased Economic Uncertainty? According to the World Gold Council (or WGC), central banks’ gold (SGOL) buying has hit the highest level in almost three years for the quarter ended September 2018. Central banks have been net buyers of gold since the beginning of the financial crisis of 2008.
Could Gold Be the Best Bet amid Increased Economic Uncertainty? Bank of America (or BofA) analysts contend that gold prices (GLD) should surge over the next year. The firm stated that higher real US interest rates, a strong US dollar (UUP), and equity market volatility have kept a lid on gold prices year-to-date.
Could Gold Be the Best Bet amid Increased Economic Uncertainty? The Fed’s interest rate hikes and outlook, trade war concerns, and the better US market (SPY) (QQQ) performance have been the key factors behind the dollar’s strength. The Federal Reserve has already raised the rates three times this year and is expected to raise them for the fourth time in December.
Gold prices (GLD) saw their first monthly gain in the last seven months in October when prices rose by 2.1%. Gold prices are down by 7.4% YTD, and they are down 10.6% from their April peak. While gold prices seemed to have lost their safe-haven status as they kept on falling even amid all the geopolitical, trade, and emerging market tensions, October has reinstated that appeal to some extent.
BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) conducted a survey that polled 225 global investors with $641 billion in total assets under management between November 2 and November 8.
Barrick–Randgold Sets the Bar for Future Gold MergersVan Eck Gold Consolidated, Gold Stocks Declined, But Positive Trends Emerge
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its September 25–26 meeting. Read When Will Fed Tightening Start to Hurt the US Economy? for a summary of the Fed’s actions at the meeting and the market’s reaction to them. The meeting minutes were slightly more hawkish than expected, and they signaled that most Fed officials believe that interest rates must continue to rise.
BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) conducted a survey that polled 231 global investors with $646 billion in total assets under management from October 5–11. The sell-off and concerns of peaking growth in the US might have tempted investors to shift into emerging markets (EEM). The emerging market currencies were in a free fall with many countries like Argentina, Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Brazil bearing the brunt.
Gold, Miners Have Surged on the Market Rout—What’s the Upside? The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports the positions of major players in the futures market in its COT (Commitment of Traders) report. It’s released every Friday and shows the open interest recorded on the previous Tuesday.
Gold prices have failed to draw a bid in 2018 despite many market uncertainties, including trade war tensions, the emerging market (EEM) currency crisis, and other geopolitical concerns. Year-to-date, gold prices have fallen 6.4%, and they’re currently down 9.6% from their April peak. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), a proxy for physical gold’s price, rose 2.6% yesterday, bringing gold’s gains in the last three days to ~3.0%.
Does the Sell-Off Imply Market Repositioning for Lower Growth? One of the major market worries at the core of the current market sell-off is the coming earnings deceleration. The stock market rally in 2018 has been fueled in part by the tax reform windfall.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA) tumbled more than 800 points yesterday as Treasury yields (TLT) (AGG) continued their upward march. Rising bond yields and signs of firming inflation have spooked investors. Investors worry that because the era of near-zero rates has ended, companies’ margins might get squeezed.
The budget balance is the difference between what a country’s government garners from taxes and other sources and what it spends. A budget deficit occurs when spending exceeds earnings. In such a situation, the government borrows money from its citizens as well as foreign entities. As this debt accumulates, it’s possible that the value of its currency could decrease. The US (SPY) (VTI) budget deficit is creeping up.
As we discussed previously in this series, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has fallen ~9.0% year-to-date and ~12.0% from its April peak. While gold prices have generally disappointed in 2018, there are many reasons to believe that this could be about to change and gold might be in the process of bottoming out. As we have discussed previously in the series, this buying is expected to continue going forward and with greater vigor, which should support gold prices.
The trade balance is the difference between a country’s monetary value of exports and imports. A positive balance is known as a trade surplus where exports are greater than imports. A negative balance is known as a trade deficit.
Central banks have been net buyers of gold (SGOL) since the beginning of the financial crisis of 2008. According to Atsuko Whitehouse at BullionVault, “Central banks are buying gold for their reserves at the fastest pace in 6 years.” Macquarie reports that a total of 264 tons have been added to the official-sector gold holdings in the first nine months of the year. As usual, the central banks of Russia (RSX), Turkey, and Kazakhstan were leading the pack.
Gold prices dropped for the sixth straight month in September, which is gold’s longest monthly losing streak since January 1997. Year-to-date, gold prices are down by 9%, and they are down 12% from their April peak. Gold’s price decline is especially puzzling given the presence of many factors that would have usually supported its safe-haven appeal and thus its price.