|Bid||0.00 x 40000|
|Ask||0.00 x 40000|
|Day's Range||24.97 - 25.03|
|52 Week Range||23.09 - 25.67|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.76%|
Recently, Alibaba’s (BABA) Jack Ma said that the US-China trade war could last for decades. In this part, we’ll see where China stands in the US-China trade war. First, we’ll discuss how China could retaliate against the US (QQQ).
A record number of fund managers in the BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) September survey believe that gold (IAU) is undervalued, trading at a 17-year low. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has fallen ~8.5% year-to-date and ~13% from its April peak. It’s usually considered a safe-haven asset in which investors take refuge in the event of uncertainty and risk. However, gold has not been able to draw safe-haven bids so far in 2018 since the strong US dollar (UUP) keeps weighing it down.
In Could Trade Tensions Support the US Dollar Again? we discussed how the dollar makes a comeback after trade tensions seem to escalate. Year-to-date, gold prices have fallen 8.6% while the US Dollar Index has risen 4.8%. As the news of the new round of trade tariffs hit the market, gold prices fell while the dollar rose.
Which Sectors Are Worried about Rising US–China Trade Tensions? Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, noted on September 10 that China (FXI) isn’t really concerned about the import tariffs imposed and proposed by the US (SPY)(IVV). During his interview on Squawk Box, he added that China is more focused on its ongoing relationship with the United States.
It has been a decade since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. While governments loosened their purse strings, central banks also took a dovish approach by lowering interest rates and using other monetary policy tools. Fast forward to 2018, the tools available for central banks and governments look limited.
The US dollar (UUP) made a comeback on September 14 after reports suggested that Donald Trump is planning to impose tariffs on Chinese goods worth $200 billion, despite trade talks. The US dollar has benefited significantly from safe-haven bids due to escalating trade tension, especially between the United States and China (FXI).
The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has fallen ~8.4% year-to-date and ~11.5% from its April peak. September is usually a stronger month for gold after the summer doldrums. In this September, however, investors could remain in a wait-and-see mode until the Federal Reserve’s September 25–26 meeting is over.
Today, the markets kept a watchful eye on hints of an additional round of tariffs against China. A Bloomberg report notes that sources close to President Trump indicated that he wants to move ahead with $200.0 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports despite his administration’s attempts to resume trade talks with China. The markets were also nervous following President Trump’s comments on September 7.
The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) reports the position of major players in the futures market through its COT (Commitment of Traders) report. According to the COT report for the week ended September 4, money managers resumed building their short positions in gold futures. The money managers increased their net short positions from 75,772 contracts to 82,722 contracts in the latest week.
Among the emerging market (VEU) currencies, the Argentinian peso, Turkish (TUR) lira, Indonesia rupiah, and Indian rupee are declining to all-time lows. The US dollar is also strengthening against all major currencies, including those of emerging markets. As the US dollar strengthens and interest rates rise, the cost of servicing US debt for other countries goes up.
The US CPI (consumer price index) for August rose 0.2% sequentially compared to the 0.3% growth that was expected by economists. In the 12 months through the end of August, the CPI rose 2.7%, lower than July’s 2.9% rise. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose 2.2% in the 12 months through August, also lower than July’s 2.4% rise.
According to a Wall Street Journal article on September 12, the US is proposing a new round of trade talks with China. The article mentioned that the US wants to give China another chance to save itself from tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods. The invitation from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin came amid a sense of vulnerability and possibly more flexibility among Chinese officials.
Emerging markets bear the brunt of angst over trade as President Trump threatens to slap another round of tariffs on Chinese goods. Cloud computing trended thanks to skyrocketing cloud usage and record capital expenditures of the largest cloud infrastructure players. Argentina came third in the list as optimism surfaced after government and IMF officials signaled progress in the talks regarding the improvement of a standby loan agreement approved in June. Lithium oversupply in China has sent prices to 14-month lows as cheap, locally produced material hurts the international market. The U.S. dollar closed the list due to positive reaction to strong wage data and an overall upbeat jobs report. Check out our previous trends edition at Trending: Markets Plough Ahead on NAFTA Breakthrough.
The US (IVV)(QQQ) employment data for August was released on September 7. After disappointing in July, the job additions in August rebounded to 201,000 compared to economists’ expectations of 191,000 and last month’s additions of 147,000.
The balance of trade is the difference between a country’s monetary value of exports and imports. A positive balance is known as a trade surplus—exports are greater than imports. A negative balance is known as a trade deficit.
Year-to-date, the UUP ETF (UUP) has risen 5.2%, while the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has declined 8.4%. According to a Reuters poll, while the US dollar could hold onto its gains for the rest of this year, it’s unlikely to maintain its ascent after that. Other factors supporting the dollar such as rate hikes and trade tensions have now been priced into the dollar. Morgan Stanley analysts also believe that the US dollar is “topping out,” according to Bloomberg.
Gold investors have been puzzled by the way gold prices (GLD) are falling amid ramped-up trade tensions and emerging market crises. The US dollar’s (UUP) strength and the rate hike outlook have been pressuring gold prices for most of 2018. Lately, gold prices have been trading without much direction.
According to reports from Bloomberg, speaking from Air Force One, Trump said that he has identified $267 billion worth of Chinese imports for tariffs. This move could severely escalate tensions between the US and China.
To help investors keep up with the markets, we present our ETF Scorecard. The Scorecard takes a step back and looks at how various asset classes across the globe are performing. The weekly performance is from last Friday’s open to this week’s Thursday close.
In the below table, we can see that Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) managed to grow revenue by 3% YoY (year-over-year) in its Hybrid IT segment, which accounts for over 80% of total revenue. However, on a constant currency basis, this growth was flat.
One of the clearest ways to monitor the shift in investor sentiment is to look at the underlying trends of major world currencies. Given the rise in popularity of niche exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as the various ones discussed below, it is now possible to analyze the shift in global demand and to notice that investor favor is undoubtedly being given to the U.S. dollar. Taking a look at the chart of the Invesco DB US Dollar Index ( UUP), which is used as a cost-effective method for tracking the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major world currencies – the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc – you'll notice that it has been trading within a defined uptrend since late April.