25.56 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 4:36PM EST
|Bid||0.00 x 40000|
|Ask||0.00 x 40000|
|Day's Range||25.54 - 25.63|
|52 Week Range||23.09 - 26.12|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||4.39|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.76%|
Among the most popular calls on Wall Street heading into 2019 was the call for a weaker dollar. Last year, the Invesco DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (NYSE: UUP ) gained 7.1 percent, easily making it one of ...
Most of Gundlach’s 2018 Calls Were Spot On—What about 2019? ## Assessing Gundlach’s predictions So-called bond king Jeffrey Gundlach, who is also the CEO of DoubleLine Capital, made his predictions for 2019 on a variety of topics, including debt markets, stock markets, Bitcoin, the state of the economy, and interest rates, in his annual “Just Markets” webcast on January 8. Before we look at what Gundlach expects for the year ahead, let’s have a look at what he predicted last year and how many of those predictions actually came true. ## Stock markets to turn negative One of Gundlach’s key calls for 2018 was that the equity market would end the year in negative territory. He said it would be completely different from what we experienced in 2017 and that it was payback time. In December 2018, Gundlach said, “I’m pretty sure this is a bear market.” He also said he expected the S&P 500 to fall below the lows it hit early in 2018. These predictions came true, and December turned out to be the worst December for markets since 1931. The S&P 500 (SPY), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), and the NASDAQ Composite Index (QQQ) fell 6.3%, 5.7%, and 1%, respectively, in 2018. Gundlach was also right about emerging market equities (EEM). He suggested that it isn’t a good time for traders to be buying them, but long-term investors might benefit. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fared much worse than US markets. In April, Gundlach described Bitcoin as the current dot-com bubble. He also said that Bitcoin had rallied and peaked in 2017 along with equity prices. Bitcoin prices have been mostly falling since peaking in December 2017. ## Some misses However, Gundlach wasn’t right on all his predictions. His expectations regarding a big downside in the US dollar (UUP) didn’t come true. Moreover, he was very bullish on commodities (XME) (XLE) and even said, “What I mean by massive is not a 30% gain, it is 100%, 200% or even 400%.” This prediction also didn’t come true, with most commodities providing negative returns for the year. With the above information as our context, let’s see what Gundlach is predicting for the economy and the markets in 2019. Continue to Next Part Browse this series on Market Realist: * Part 2 - Jeffrey Gundlach: How to Survive the Market Zigzags in 2019 * Part 3 - Gundlach: Junk Bond Market Is Flashing Yellow on Recession * Part 4 - Why Gundlach Expects a Wave of Corporate Downgrades to Come
Among the various asset classes accessible via exchange-traded funds (ETFs), currencies often go overlooked by many investors. That is likely an extension of the well-documented home country bias many investors have. In the U.S., investors are apt to embrace dollar-denominated investments, be it bonds, commodities or other assets. Even when it comes to investing in ex-US markets, American investors often overlook currency risk in favor of vehicles denominated in dollars. This year, the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEARCA:UUP), which tracks the greenback against a basket of major foreign currencies, is one of the best-performing currency ETFs. UUP gauges the dollar's performance against the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc and is up 6.33% year-to-date. InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 10 Oversold Stocks Due for a Bounce However, as is the case with other assets, dollar bull markets do not last forever and with some market observers forecasting dollar declines in 2019, some other currency ETFs may be worth considering. Here are some currency ETFs to mull over in the New Year. ### Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN) Expense Ratio: 0.80% per year, or $80 per $10,000 invested Put simply, the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (NYSEARCA:UDN) is the bearish answer to the aforementioned UUP. UDN is arguably the most well-known bearish currency ETF and it is not leveraged, so it is less volatile and an easier hold for investors looking to be short the greenback for several days or weeks. While the greenback has been a star among currencies this year, UDN is setting up to be a winner among currency ETFs in 2019. "In the latest Reuters poll of more than 60 currency analysts, taken Nov. 28-Dec. 5, the dollar was forecast to be weaker against major currencies in a year," reports Reuters. "The greenback may also struggle to move much higher, given currency speculators' bets in favor of the dollar are the highest since December 2016, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data." ### WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund (CEW) Expense Ratio: 0.55% Emerging markets stocks are not the only asset class in the developing world getting hammered this year. A primary reason why bonds and equities in emerging markets are flailing this year is the strong U.S. dollar, a scenario that has made the WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund (NYSEARCA:CEW) a dog among currency ETFs. The Federal Reserve's 2018 rate tightening regime has punished nearly every currency ETF aside from the dollar bullish UUP, but if the Fed slows its pace of rate hikes next year or eliminates it altogether, currency ETFs such as CEW could benefit. Some market observers are already forecasting a 2019 rebound for emerging markets currencies. * 10 Top Stock Picks From the Street's Best Analysts "Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects to see improving economic conditions in emerging markets over the coming months, thus providing a springboard for the value of regional stocks and currencies," reports CNBC. ### Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (BNDX) Expense Ratio: 0.11% Vanguard is not a major player in currency ETFs, but one of its offerings on that front is worth considering for income investors. The Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX) hedges currency risk by tracking the Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Float Adjusted RIC Capped Index (USD Hedged). The hedging strategy employed by BNDX is important because the more than 5,400 bonds held by this currency ETF are not denominated in dollars. This currency ETF's hedging strategy is proving less bad in 2018 as BNDX is down just 0.42%. Plus, this Vanguard fund is cheaper than 88% of rival funds, according to issuer data. BNDX's holdings have an average duration of 7.8 years and credit risk is minimal with this fund as approximately 83% of its holdings are rated between A and AAA. This currency ETF yields 2.27%. ### Xtrackers MSCI Europe Hedged Equity ETF (DBEU) Expense Ratio: 0.45% The Xtrackers MSCI Europe Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:DBEU) is a currency ETF that needs two things to happen to deliver for investors. As an equity-based currency hedged ETF, DBEU is likely to rise if the dollar remains strong against major European currencies while stocks in the region rise. That is not a far-flung scenario and it has happened before. Many of the largest companies residing in this currency ETF generate significant portions of their sales in the U.S. So if the dollar is strong, that benefits the companies as they convert dollars generated by U.S. sales back into euros, francs and pounds. * 7 Tech Stocks Without China Exposure DBEU includes exposure to stocks from Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Consumer staples and healthcare stocks, two export-driven groups, combine for over a quarter of DBEU's weight. ### SPDR Long Dollar Gold Trust (GLDW) Expense Ratio: 0.50% Gold, like other commodities, is denominated in dollars. Typically, that is bad news when the dollar rises, but the SPDR Long Dollar Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLDW) is a currency ETF meets gold ETF that can help investors stay engaged with bullion, even when the dollar is moving higher. GLDW, which is nearly two years old, follows the Solactive GLD Long USD Gold Index. That index is "designed to represent the daily performance of a long position in physical gold and a short position in a basket ("the FX Basket") comprised of each of the Reference Currencies (i.e., a long USD exposure versus the FX Basket)," according to State Street. Currencies measured against the dollar within GLDW are the euro, Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. Notably, this currency ETF earned its paycheck in 2018. While basic gold ETFs were down almost 3%, GLDW was up 3.61%. As of this writing, Todd Shriber did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. ### More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Downtrodden Stocks to Fish From the Bottom * 8 Cheap Value Stocks That Just Got More Enticing * 5 Apple Suppliers Hurt by the Guidance Cut Compare Brokers The post 5 Currency ETFs to Consider At the Start of 2019 appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Is Gold Ready to Fly in the New Year?(Continued from Prior Part)The US dollar and the Fed’s approach Like the Fed’s policies, the strong US dollar (UUP) impacted gold prices (GLD) this year. Key factors supporting the dollar this year were the Fed’s interest rate hikes and outlook, trade war concerns, and US markets’ (SPY) (QQQ) outperformance of other markets.
Bulls versus Bears on Wall Street: Time to Buy Gold in 2019? Unlike other banks, BNP Paribas has a negative bias for gold going into 2019. Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas, is negative on gold (SGOL)(GLD) and other precious metals (JNUG) in 2019 and prefers holding Treasuries (TLT) to gold and silver.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) is overweight on precious metals going into 2019. In its preview for 2019, BAML strategist Michael Widmer and his team noted that the market is close to extremely bearish on the metal. BAML uses four variables to forecast gold prices (GLD)(JNUG): the US dollar (UUP), US real interest rates (TLT), cross-asset volatility (VIX), and oil prices (USO).
Credit Suisse (CS) is positive about gold prices (IAU) in 2019. The bank expects gold prices to average $1,275 per ounce in 2019 and $1,300 in 2020.
For a large part of the year, gold prices (GLD) have languished due to a strong US dollar (UUP), hawkish Fed rate hike outlook, and rising equity markets. For the last few months, though, some of these factors seem to be reversing their course. Equity markets, for one, have remained quite fragile and volatile (VIX) since October. As of December 24, the S&P 500 (SPY), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), and the NASDAQ Composite (QQQ) have lost 18.9%, 16.1%, and 21.6%, respectively, since hitting their highs in mid-September.
For most of the year, gold prices (GLD) have languished, thanks to a strong US dollar (UUP), hawkish Fed rate hike outlook, and strength in the equity markets. For the last few months, though, some of these factors seem to be reversing course. Equity markets, for one, have remained quite fragile and volatile (VIX) since October.
For the better part of 2018, markets have been under the spell of technology stocks. And FAANGs were at the helm, bewildering investors with stunning earnings, but also shocking them with data breach scandals or disappointing guidance. Emerging markets have had a rough year. Turkey and Argentina were caught in a currency storm bot, seeing their notes sink abruptly. Aluminum and steel prices spiked on President Trump’s tariffs announcement, while oil reached four-year highs on Iran sanctions only to reverse on supply glut fears. Benchmark treasuries hit seven-year highs amid robust economic data and ultra-low unemployment. Last but not least, a refurbished NAFTA deal gave the U.S. administration an impulse to push further in its attempt to reduce the massive trade gap it holds with China. Check our previous trends edition at Trending: Soybeans Jump on US-China Trade Ceasefire.
In a report published on November 26, Goldman Sachs (GS) stated that commodities (COMT) could climb 17% in the coming months. It believes that commodities will escape a 2015-style price collapse. Among commodities, GS is particularly bullish on oil (USO), gold (GLD), and base metals (DBB). According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs said, “Given the size of dislocations in commodity pricing relative to fundamentals with oil now having joined metals in pricing below cost support, we believe commodities offer an extremely attractive entry point for longs in oil, gold and base.”
The market is expecting to pare its anticipated rate hike outlook for 2019 from the current three to two or even one. While the US labor market is firm, the inflation pressures have yet to show up, which is causing investors to anticipate an easier policy path going forward.
Could Market Risks Bring Investors Back to Gold in 2019? The key factors supporting the greenback in 2018 have been the Fed’s interest rate hikes and outlook, trade war concerns, and the outperformance of US markets (SPY)(QQQ). The Federal Reserve has already raised rates three times this year, and it’s expected to raise them for a fourth time in December.
Can Gold Continue to Rise on Equity Market Weakness? The World Gold Council (or WGC) chief market strategist and head of research, John Reade, analyzed gold’s performance in 2018. Reade maintained that these factors are unlikely to continue for a very long time.
According to a report by the World Gold Council (or WGC), holdings in gold ETFs rose for the second consecutive month in November to 21.2 tons to a total of 2,365 tons. It also said that the global gold-backed ETF flows are now positive in US dollar (UUP) terms for the year. ETF flows were positive for the first time in four months. The renewed buying interest from investors was on account of increased market volatility and the equity market sell-off.
Could Market Risks Bring Investors Back to Gold in 2019? Last week turned out to be great for gold prices (GLD). As equity and bond markets continued to struggle, gold made the best of the situation.
Some of the metrics that investors will be looking for in Oracle’s earnings include revenue growth, EPS growth, and free cash flow growth. The company disappointed investors as revenue growth failed to beat analyst expectations. Oracle guided for revenue growth of between 0% and 2% in constant currency terms for the current quarter.
In the previous article, we discussed how Oracle’s (ORCL) revenue growth slowed in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018 and improved just ~0.5% in the first quarter of fiscal 2019. According to the outlook provided by Oracle, it expects its revenue to grow between 0% and 2% in constant currency terms in the quarter, but the strengthening US dollar could hurt its revenue growth expectations. In August, the Turkish lira went through a bad phase that spread to other emerging markets.
On December 3, global markets rose due to the US-China trade war truce. Although the truce is temporary, it eased concerns about the coming global slowdown. President Trump and President Jinping met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina. While market participants weren’t hopeful about a deal, the 90-day truce on raising tariffs on Chinese products to 25% from 10% came as a welcome surprise to the markets.
Apple (AAPL) posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018, which ended on September 29, but it issued disappointing revenue guidance. Apple posted EPS of $2.91 in the quarter, beating the estimate of $2.78. Its revenue of $62.9 billion also exceeded the estimate of $61.57 billion in the quarter.
While gold prices (GLD) jumped 0.8%, copper prices rose 1.3%. Gold prices benefit from a weaker dollar, and the Fed chair’s comments pressured the US dollar (UUP) yesterday. Part 2 - What Made Powell Change His Mind?
U.S. natural gas had a wild ride over the past week as investors were caught off guard by updated weather forecasts as well as reduced stocks. Oil moved in the opposite direction for the better part of the month as glut worries took prices back to October 2017 levels. On the currencies front, the U.S. dollar continues its march against the troubled euro and British pound. Last week has been mostly about the energy sector so leading companies in the field have trended accordingly. Investment grade corporate bonds closed the list as investors reevaluate the risk of placing funds in such assets. Check out our previous Trends edition at Trending: Investors Steer Towards Dividend Yields Amid Market Turmoil.