DIS - The Walt Disney Company

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
133.88
-0.21 (-0.16%)
As of 1:01PM EDT. Market open.
Stock chart is not supported by your current browser
Previous Close134.09
Open133.82
Bid133.73 x 800
Ask133.76 x 1000
Day's Range133.39 - 134.17
52 Week Range98.81 - 142.37
Volume2,218,647
Avg. Volume14,397,722
Market Cap240.944B
Beta (3Y Monthly)0.68
PE Ratio (TTM)14.98
EPS (TTM)8.94
Earnings DateAug 5, 2019 - Aug 9, 2019
Forward Dividend & Yield1.76 (1.28%)
Ex-Dividend Date2018-12-07
1y Target Est149.22
Trade prices are not sourced from all markets
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    InvestorPlaceyesterday

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    It took a while, but Disney (NYSE:DIS) shares finally have moved. Disney stock traded sideways for nearly four years. But the launch of Disney+ last month sent the Disney soaring to new highs.Source: Baron Valium via FlickrAs it turns out, I was half-right. A week before the company announced the details of Disney+, I wrote that company's streaming move would shape the direction of DIS stock. I noted that if Disney, through its streaming efforts, could create even one-fourth of the value of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), the Disney stock price would rise 20%.Both predictions turned out to be accurate. Of course, I also thought it would take years for Disney to prove the value of its streaming plans, and potentially for DIS stock to achieve those 20% gains. Instead, investors bought the plan immediately. Disney jumped over 11% on the first day, and it would take just a few more sessions to show that 20% increase.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 7 Stocks to Buy for Over 20% Upside Potential With those gains, however, the same problem arises: what moves DIS stock from here? CEO Bob Iger repeatedly has noted that earnings are going to take a hit from streaming in the near term. Even subscriber numbers likely won't be available until early next year. And the rest of the business is not performing well.Disney already has pulled back after the initial pop. I wouldn't be surprised if it returns to its rangebound ways for at least the rest of the year. Disney EarningsDIS didn't move much after earnings (adding 0.4% last week), which makes sense. For all the optimism about streaming, there are real challenges in the operating business which were highlighted in the fiscal second quarter report.Most notably, earnings per share fell 13% year-over-year on an adjusted basis. Revenue climbed 3% but all of the gains came from the assets acquired from Twenty-First Century Fox (NASDAQ:FOX,FOXA). Excluding a modest amount of revenue from Hulu, who was consolidated onto Disney's earnings during the quarter, Disney revenue actually fell year-over-year.To be sure, spending behind ESPN+ and, to a lesser extent, Hulu pressured earnings. But the story at the moment is largely what it was. Media Networks operating income declined again, according to figures from the 10-Q. That's even with affiliate fees (payments from cable and satellite operators) increasing 4%. Those fees will decline at some point as subscriber counts continue to fall and contracts are renegotiated.The Parks business continues to be solid, though attendance was a bit light (including a decline at the international parks). Studio Entertainment revenue and operating income fell, due to a tough comparison against a Star Wars release the year before.Those numbers likely will be much better in Q3 thanks to the blowout success of Avengers:Endgame, but the segment remains choppy, if generally headed in the right direction.Overall, the quarter tells the same story Disney has for some time. ESPN remains a big worry. The rest of the business is growing, but not necessarily spectacularly so. There's certainly nothing in recent results to change that story. Streaming and Disney StockIf the legacy business doesn't inflect, the question is whether the streaming opportunity can move the stock higher, at least in coming quarters. It seems somewhat unlikely, if only because there's unlikely be much in the way of news.We know what the plans are going to be. For the rest of this year, at least, the argument is going to be over what streaming profits look like not in 2020, but more importantly 2022 and 2025. Is Disney a real competitor, or at least a complement to, Netflix? Will new services from Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and AT&T (NYSE:T) unit WarnerMedia be a threat? Is Disney+ a plan for families or, given properties like Star Wars and the Marvel Universe, broad enough for everyone?The answers to those questions will take years to play out, but most investors likely have taken their positions at this point. Certainly, investors are optimistic. But bear in mind that Disney stock added $24 billion in market value in one day when the details of the streaming plans were announced. DIS now trades at over 20x next year's earnings.That's a multiple based on streaming growth, and the fact that FY20 profits will be depressed. Investments behind the streaming effort, as well as the loss of high-margin licensing revenue as Disney pulls its content from other distributors (including Netflix), are going to hit earnings next year.That's fine. An investor can't argue, as I have, that Netflix can grow into its valuation, but that Disney is too expensive at 22x FY20 earnings. But the catch with Disney stock is that if optimism towards streaming grows, it likely comes at a cost to near-term earnings. What Moves DIS Higher?If cord-cutting accelerates, making streaming more valuable, Disney's existing properties will take a hit in terms of both affiliate fees and advertising revenue. If it doesn't, it's tougher to make the argument that Disney+ is worth more than what's already baked into the Disney stock price.Longer-term, that problem may not matter. Even with the sideways trading of the last few years, Disney has been a terrific investment. That might continue. But it's going to take time. It's exceedingly difficult to see a positive catalyst for Disney stock before 2020 at the earliest. And so DIS may resume its old ways until the streaming service has a chance to drive even more optimism.As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned. More From InvestorPlace * 4 Top American Penny Pot Stocks (Buy Before June 21) * 7 High-Yield REITs to Buy (Even When the Market Tanks) * 5 Great Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy Today * 7 Tech Stocks to Buy That Are Also Perfect for Retirement Compare Brokers The post Streaming Excitement Isn't Enough to Keep Boosting Disney Stock appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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    Sooner or Later Content Costs Will Catch up to Netflix Stock

    Amid international expansion and record subscriber numbers, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) faces more competition than ever. Netflix will soon lose Disney's (NYSE:DIS) content. Moreover, it faces more companies adding a streaming service. Amid these threats, Netflix stock continues its long-term uptrend.Source: Vivian D Nguyen via Flickr (Modified)So far, Netflix has maintained this lead with new content and market expansion. However, keeping this current pace could hurt holders of Netflix directly. With a heavy debt load, the company may have little choice but to issue more shares, directly undermining the value of NFLX stock. * 7 High-Yield REITs to Buy (Even When the Market Tanks) Transformation and Netflix stockNetflix has become arguably the most transformative company of the last decade. Looking back, some might find it hard to believe that the Justice Department once fretted over the attempt by Blockbuster Video to take over its then-largest competitor, Hollywood Video. Netflix made this irrelevant.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsOver the last few years, we have also seen consumers increasingly drop pay-TV services in favor of streaming video. The once-loved programming of the major networks only gains scant attention today. Again, we have Netflix to thank.Consequently, valuations in Netflix stock have remained high for several years. Admittedly, I have predicted Netflix's relative decline for a long time, and the market has responded with a higher price for Netflix. For now, content and aggressive international expansion have kept Netflix ahead of its competition. Netflix Stock Isn't ProfitableHowever, I think our own James Brumley points to the real problem that true profitability remains elusive. As he points out, Netflix will reportedly spend $15 billion on content in 2019, up from the $12 billion in outlays for 2018.Interestingly, the company balance sheet states that "cost of revenue" came in at only $9.97 billion for 2018. Content seems like a cost of revenue to me. Regardless, these numbers indicate that if Netflix considered its homegrown material a true cost of revenue, it does not earn a profit.So far, Wall Street has not punished Netflix stock. Moreover, even though I disagree with my colleague Will Ashworth on NFLX, I think he correctly predicts that Disney+ will not lead to widespread cancellations of Netflix service. But the worries extend beyond Disney+. They extend to Disney's Hulu, Prime Video from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), which can afford to outspend Netflix on content, and numerous others. Stockholders Will PayNetflix has now resorted to junk bonds to fund its expansion. As a result, it currently holds about $10.3 billion in long-term debt. This has become a heavy burden on a firm with only $5.7 billion in stockholders' equity. When the junk bond market ceases to remain an option, the company will have little choice but to cut content spending or resort to issuing more stock.As it is, NFLX stock trades at about 127 trailing earnings. The equity supports a forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of just over 60. Admittedly, many traders will pay that multiple if the predicted earnings increases of 27.6% this year and 71.3% in 2020 come to pass. However, if the supply of shares proliferates, investor sentiment could cool off.Looking at the charts, one might wonder if it has already cooled off. Since February, Netflix has traded in a narrow range. Time will tell whether this period is a pause before moving higher or an indication of increasing doubts about NFLX.For this reason, I do not recommend a short position. However, with a steadily worsening balance sheet and negative cash flows, I would not own this name at current levels. Final Thoughts on Netflix StockNetflix may soon have to fund its content budget with aggressive share issuance, thereby undermining the stock's value. For most of its history, Netflix has built itself on market disruption.Now, with numerous companies copying its model, it has had to move into new markets and spend heavily on content to stay ahead.However, the cost of this expansion has forced NFLX to issue increasing amounts of junk bonds. With more debt becoming less of an option, Netflix will have to become just another streaming company or dilute its stock. Both options bode poorly for holders of Netflix stock.As of this writing, Will Healy did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned stocks. You can follow Will on Twitter at @HealyWriting. More From InvestorPlace * 4 Top American Penny Pot Stocks (Buy Before June 21) * 7 High-Yield REITs to Buy (Even When the Market Tanks) * 5 Great Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy Today * 7 Tech Stocks to Buy That Are Also Perfect for Retirement Compare Brokers The post Sooner or Later Content Costs Will Catch up to Netflix Stock appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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