|Day's Range||94.671 - 95.241|
|52 Week Range||94.671 - 98.665|
International investors have jettisoned their holdings of emerging market stocks and bonds of late but some analysts and money managers are betting that EM could be poised for a comeback. Yahoo Finance’s Seana Smith, Dion Rabouin and Rick Newman discuss.
While risk appetite returns to the markets, the Dollar looks to have found its some upside in the early part of the day, though it could all change should sentiment towards trade tariffs take another turn.
The risk tap opened this morning, providing much needed support for the Asian equity markets and the commodity currencies, with focus now shifting to the release of the ECB policy meeting minutes and U.S inflation figures.
the ECB will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes. The minutes cover the June ECB meeting where policymakers announced a taper to the QE program and an exit from QE by December 2018.
The United States aims for specific key manufacturing export industries like cotton, steel, and Refrigerators. The reason behind the potential tariffs on these goods is to target the metal products, auto parts as well as the electronics and textile manufacturers.
Trump’s threat of more tariffs hit the Aussie and Kiwi Dollar and risk appetite in general through the Asian session, as the markets look ahead to Draghi later this morning and the Bank of Canada’s rate hike and policy outlook this afternoon.
The news hit the stock market hard late Tuesday after investors had driven prices higher on the back of the start of earnings season and dampening concerns over the trade dispute. The early price action in the financial markets indicates that investors are not going to wait for the announcement and would rather take protection sooner than later.
While a number of the majors are in recovery mode, the Pound as come under renewed pressure as high profile members of the Tory Party resign over Brexit, with the threat of another General Election becoming every more real.
It’s been risk on through the early part of the day, with only the U.S Dollar suffering as the markets look beyond the trade tariffs to positive economic data out of the U.S and Germany, though sentiment could turn should Trump make any more moves on trade tariffs.
The U.S. dollar was seen trading weaker on Friday despite a broadly positive jobs report. The U.S. economy was seen adding 213k jobs during the month of May with revisions to the previous two months of data showing a net gain of 37,000.
Concerns over a fourth rate hike in 2018 and safe-haven buying due to the escalation of the trade dispute between the United States and China, drove U.S. Treasury yields lower. This made the U.S. Dollar a less attractive investment against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars. Additionally, the tightening of the spread between U.S. Government bond yields and Japanese Government bond yields, pressured the USD/JPY last week.
Gold prices are trading in a range between the $1251 and the $1260.50-$1261 ahead of the crucial US NFP data with brighter favoring the yellow metal’s dip to $1246-$1245.50 in case if stronger jobs report drag the quote beneath $1251. Should the Bullion refrain to respect the $1245.50 rest-point, the $1242.90-80 and the $1237.90 could offer intermediate halts during its plunge towards 61.8% FE level of $1232.20. On the contrary, disappointment from the employment report could quickly fuel the Gold in direction to $1261, breaking which $1266.50 and the $1271.50-$1272 can please the ...
It’s another busy day for the markets, with a heavy set of stats out of the U.S and trade tariff chatter there for the markets to focus on through the day, an escalation in trade war talk likely to overshadow any upbeat data.
The RBA held rates unchanged yet again, with concerns over trade being added to a laundry list of reasons for holding rates unchanged, the EUR and the USD in the spotlight through the day, as geo-politics reigns supreme.
Now that the second quarter of the year is about to end, it is time to look back and see what the main events on the currency market were. For once, both technical and fundamental analysis was right pointing to a higher USD. Despite the Fed raising rates and ECB keeping the critical interest rate level into negative territory, the EURUSD rose from 1.06 to over 1.20.
The Greenback was primarily supported by the divergence in monetary policy between the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and other less-hawkish and dovish central banks. Federal Open Market Committee member Raphael Bostic said he may rule out a fourth rate hike this year if trade issues start to negatively affect the economy.
The U.S. dollar was seen holding its ground across some of the currency pairs despite the U.S. first-quarter GDP report showing a downside revision. Data from the Commerce Department showed that the first quarter GDP in the U.S. increased at a pace of 2.0% compared to the previous estimates that suggested the economy increased at a pace of 2.2%. In the U.S. trading session, the core PCE price index is expected to show a 0.2% increase on the month while personal spending and income are expected to rise 0.4% each.
The U.S. stock indexes are following through to the upside after Thursday’s strong recovery from the week’s lows was driven by strong rallies in bank and technology stocks. Treasury yields are moving higher early Friday, a strong indication that today will be a risk-on session in the financial markets. The USD/JPY is continuing to recover nicely from a two-week low reached earlier in the week.
The EU Summit provided much needed support for the EUR, though today’s stats will need to play a supporting role to the EU Summit that could still throw a few curve balls.
The RBNZ just turned more dovish and shower little sign of any plans of a rate hike over the near-term, with Japan retail sales also disappointing. Summits and the Oval Office will place the EUR and the USD under the spotlight.
The Trump administration announced it would take a softer stance toward Chinese investment than previously reported. New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods and shipments unexpectedly fell in May, but data for the prior month was revised higher. The Commerce Department also reported that the goods trade deficit declined 3.7 percent to $64.8 billion in May as an increase in exports outpaced a rise in imports. The government department also said wholesale inventories increased 0.5 percent in May and stocks at retailers gained 0.4 percent.
Carney takes the spotlight this morning with the BoE Financial Stability Report as the markets continue to focus on the global economic outlook and the ramifications of a trade war.
Consumer confidence fell well below economists’ expectations in June, fueled by a bleak outlook for U.S. economic conditions. The Confidence Board’s index dropped to 126.4 from a revised 128.8 in May. The index was expected to hit 128.1.
Another risk off session in Asia, as the markets continue to response to the beat of the trade war drum, with tech stocks under the hammer ahead of an announcement on a ban on Chinese investment into U.S tech companies.
The markets are gripped by the trade war of words, the chances of a resolution ahead of 6th July looking slim. The Art of the Deal seems to be failing and that’s not going to be well received by the markets.