126.61 -0.02 (-0.02%)
After hours: 4:50PM EDT
|Bid||0.00 x 0|
|Ask||0.00 x 0|
|Day's Range||126.55 - 126.96|
|52 Week Range||114.80 - 129.51|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.40%|
Analyst estimates for gold miners’ (GDX) revenues can give us a good idea about their outlook on gold prices (GLD) as well as companies’ production growth. In this part of our series, we’ll assess analysts’ revenue expectations for gold companies in 1Q18 and beyond. Analysts expect Barrick Gold (ABX) to generate revenues of ~$1.84 billion in 1Q18.
Crude oil started this week on a weaker note but regained strength as the week progressed. After the mixed performance on Thursday, crude oil started Friday on a stable note and traded near three-year high price levels in the early hours.
The International Monetary Fund (or IMF) issued an update to its world economic outlook on the eve of IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington this week. The IMF warned that a major trade rift between the US and China could threaten global economic growth, which otherwise should rise solidly this year. The agency still maintained its forecast of 3.9% for global economic growth, which would be the fastest rate of growth since 2011.
Commodities rallied furiously Thursday morning, but leveled off by the afternoon -- a lesson for any investor to be wary of any asset class that rises too much, too fast. Brent crude gained 0.41% to $73 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate was roughly flat ending the day at around $68. Earlier in the session, Brent and WTI had both been up more than 1%.
Precious metals had another up day as gold futures for April expiration rose 0.48% on Friday, April 13, closing at $1,344.80 per ounce. Silver rose 1.1%, ending the day at $16.60 per ounce.
A classic technical analysis pattern is playing out on the gold ETF chart based on the monthly prices. From the standpoint of classic technical analysis – the kind that John J. Murphy elucidates in Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets – this indicates the potential for reversal. Gold ETF chart. Since this is the case, a decent technical analyst would check for other types of indications to look for confirmation or non-confirmation.
Gold ETF investors bought 173.4 tons of gold in 2017, 9% higher year-over-year (or YoY). In 2018 year-to-date (or YTD), the inflows in gold-backed ETFs have been strong. As of April 13, ETF holdings totaled 2,186 tons, which is 5.2% higher YoY.
On April 13, US crude oil (USO) May futures settled at $67.39 per barrel—the highest closing level for US crude oil active futures in more than three years. Oil prices have been climbing lately due to geopolitical tensions, which have increased worries of disruptions to supply, especially in the Middle East. New sanctions on Russia could further lift oil prices.
Geopolitical tensions, trade war fears, rate hikes, and market volatility have left investors restless. Geopolitical issues started when President Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The issues increased due to a potential trade war between the United States and China. Next, President Trump targeted Russia. Sanctions have been imposed on several Russian entities, including aluminum giant RUSAL. Missile attacks on Syria further escalated geopolitical tensions.
Overall, gold has been rising in 2018, mainly due to the geopolitical tensions that keep increasing. First, we had fears of a US-China trade war, and now we have the Syrian chemical attack and subsequent air strikes. Another crucial element is the decline of the US dollar, which we’ll look at in the next part of this series.