36.85 +0.36 (0.99%)
Pre-Market: 7:27AM EST
|Bid||36.87 x 800|
|Ask||36.94 x 800|
|Day's Range||36.24 - 36.74|
|52 Week Range||34.21 - 45.93|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||1.02|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||16.36|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||1.35 (3.77%)|
|1y Target Est||42.08|
It seems, for now, like the collapse in Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has ended. Nvidia stock has bounced about 20% from late December lows. Of course, NVDA stock still sits more than 40% below October highs. Indeed, NVDA was one of the biggest victims of the market-wide sell-off that began in early October, and it's been one of the bigger beneficiaries of the "buy the dip" response to late December lows. But the decline in Nvidia stock wasn't caused just by broad market fears which means the bounce is going to take more than investors looking for bargains. And at least in the near term, I'm skeptical there's a catalyst for further upside here. NVDA fell sharply after Q3 earnings in November, largely due to weak guidance for the fourth quarter. InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 7 Stupidly Cheap Stocks to Buy Now With those Q4 earnings on the way next month, Nvidia is likely to show little, if any growth. Pricing pressure caused by a cryptocurrency mining glut isn't going away any time soon. And news from chip rivals suggests pricing across the semiconductor space is getting worse, not better. Longer-term, the case for NVDA stock still looks intriguing, given multiple potential drivers. But the 17% rise in NVDA in the first three weeks of 2019 might be as much as investors can expect. ### The Pricing Problem The key question facing NVDA at the highs was whether it was an exception to the semiconductor rule. As chip stocks soared in recent years, investors seemed to forget that the semiconductor business historically has been a tough one. This wasn't just true of Nvidia, but also of rival Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and memory play Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU). Pricing generally falls; performance has to steadily improve. Demand and supply imbalances often lead to cyclical booms and busts. A chip shortage leads prices to soar, production increases to meet the demand, and even as suppliers insist that this time they won't overproduce, a glut eventually emerges and prices and earnings plunge. Chip bulls last year began to argue that the cyclical days were over, as secular demand drivers like IoT (Internet of Things) and cloud computing would lead to years of rising sales. Semiconductor stocks like NVDA now could be - and were - valued like other tech plays. That thesis has been blown up, with Nvidia's Q4 a key reason why. And recent news suggests that pricing and supply will be a problem for some time. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) slashed guidance coming out of its Q4 report last week. Even NVDA bulls have lowered 2019 projections. And Nvidia CFO Colette Kress seemed to give relatively muted commentary toward pricing, China, and datacenter at a recent conference. It looks like it's going to get worse (or at best stay bad) before it gets better for Nvidia. And so it seems unlikely that Q4 results next month will do much for Nvidia stock. ### The Long-Term Case for Nvidia Stock Long-term, admittedly, there's still a case for NVDA. The major growth drivers here, datacenter, automotive, even gaming, still exist. The valuation assigned NVDA looks much more reasonable, at about 20x earnings backing out the company's net cash. Analysts remain behind the stock, with an average price target of $228 suggesting over 50% upside. I'm simply not sure I see a catalyst ahead. Q4 numbers are likely to be disappointing. There's pricing pressure across the industry. And I do wonder whether NVDA is the best "buy the dip" play in the depressed chip space. Equipment manufacturer Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) looks attractive, as I wrote last month. Micron stock seems to have bottomed after earnings. More broadly, Nvidia stock clearly is a "show me" story. Even 20x earnings, which sounds cheap in the context of tech, is a relatively high multiple for a chip stock. It's a multiple that still incorporates long-term growth in the context of the still-real semiconductor cycle. It's going to take at least two quarters for Nvidia to show that growth and reignite investor confidence. Some investors may see that as reason enough to buy here, and simply wait for growth to come around. Personally, I think the opportunity in NVDA will still be there for the first half of 2019 at least, and potentially at a lower price. As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned. ### More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Consumer Stocks to Buy for Income * 7 Dark Horse Stocks You Really Need to Look at for 2019 * 7 Retail Stocks to Buy for the Rise of Menswear Compare Brokers The post Don't Jump on Nvidia Stock Just Yet, It Might Stay Stuck Awhile appeared first on InvestorPlace.
What Investors Can Expect from Intel's Q4 Earnings(Continued from Prior Part)Intel’s next CEO Intel (INTC), one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world, has been running without a CEO for over six months since its former CEO, Brian
What TSMC’s Guidance Could Mean for Semiconductor Investors(Continued from Prior Part)TSMC’s profitability Whereas TSMC’s (TSM) revenue grew robustly in last year’s fourth quarter, it has given weak guidance for this year’s first quarter
What Investors Can Expect from Intel's Q4 Earnings(Continued from Prior Part)Gross margin Strong demand in the PC and server markets drove Intel’s (INTC) revenue in 2018. This unexpected demand created a CPU supply shortage for Intel in the second
What TSMC’s Guidance Could Mean for Semiconductor Investors(Continued from Prior Part)TSMC secures process node leadership Previously, we saw that TSMC’s (TSM) demand is slowing due to macroeconomic environment weakness. However, it is
What TSMC’s Guidance Could Mean for Semiconductor Investors(Continued from Prior Part)TSMC’s guidance reflects semiconductor industry slowdown Previously, we saw that TSMC (TSM) has reported strong fourth-quarter earnings but has given weak
What Investors Can Expect from Intel's Q4 Earnings(Continued from Prior Part)Revenue in 2018 Intel (INTC) reported strong revenue growth in the PC and data center spaces in the first three quarters of 2018. It witnessed strong demand in the fourth
What TSMC’s Guidance Could Mean for Semiconductor InvestorsTSMC’s fourth-quarter revenue TSMC (TSM), the world’s largest foundry, earns revenue by manufacturing chips for other chipmakers on its manufacturing nodes. On January 17, the foundry
What Investors Can Expect from Intel's Q4 EarningsHow was 2018 for Intel? Last year was a strong one for Intel (INTC) from an earnings perspective but a weak one from a stock performance perspective. The company is set to report all-time record
When Huawei released its latest chip set in Shenzhen this month, the state-run Global Times newspaper hailed the “groundbreaking” development as a “boost” for China’s domestic chipmaking industry, “often portrayed as overly reliant on foreign suppliers”. Semiconductor sector analysts believe that China’s best chipmakers are as much as a decade behind their international rivals. “It is going to be a long time before you have a domestic Chinese foundry that is going to be able to compete with either Samsung or TSMC,” said E Jan Vardaman, president of US-based consultancy TechSearch International, referring to the factories that make chips for other companies.
TSMC, which supplies processors for iPhones, guided to a 22-percent quarter-over-quarter decline and a 13-14-percent year-over-year drop in Q1 revenue to a range of $7.3 billion to $7.4 billion, Daryanani said in a Thursday note. Apple sold about 11 million iPhone batteries in 2018, notably ahead of the 1-2 million that were expected. Reports of slower hiring at Apple, if true, are a prudent move, he said.
TSMC has been making Intel’s life difficult lately, so a small reprieve is welcome—even if it is to be short-lived. Company pulled ahead of Intel last year in production technology used to shrink the size of microprocessors. TSMC also is producing the latest line of server processors for Advanced Micro Devices that will compete directly with Intel in this key market.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Thursday posted in-line sales for the fourth quarter, but its revenue guidance for the current quarter was well below views. TSM stock fell on the news.
On Thursday morning, TSMC, easily the world's biggest chip contract manufacturer (foundry), reported Q4 revenue of NT$289.77 billion (up 4% annually and equal to $9.39 billion) and EPS of $0.63. More importantly, for the seasonally softer first quarter, TSMC guided for revenue of $7.3 billion to $7.4 billion. For the whole of 2019, TSMC -- citing a "slowing economic environment" -- now expects its revenue will only "grow slightly." The pre-earnings consensus was for revenue to grow about 6% in dollars.
Ryan McQueeney recaps earnings results from industry bellwethers Morgan Stanley, Taiwan Semi, Fastenal, and PPG. Later, he previews the upcoming earnings report of video streaming giant Netflix.
poor forecast to kick of 2019 threatened to sink semiconductor stocks lower on Thursday, but analysts and investors are still standing by their long term value. Notably, semiconductor spend has nearly doubled in the automotive industry from 2014 to 2019.
TSMC's Q1 Guidance Anticipates Its Steepest Revenue Fall in YearsTSMC’s unexpected earnings guidance The semiconductor earnings season began with an unpleasant surprise. On January 17, TSMC (TSM), the world’s largest foundry and the sole
The world’s largest semiconductor foundry company gave guidance on Thursday significantly below consensus, sparking worries about the severity of the chip industry downturn.
Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. are down 0.4% in Thursday morning trading after the company reported December-quarter results that topped expectations but delivered a disappointing outlook for the March period. Taiwan Semi projected $7.3 billion to $7.4 billion in March-quarter revenue, significantly below the $8.5 billion consensus estimate listed on FactSet. Issues with high-end smartphones, including Apple Inc.'s iPhone, are weighing on the company, Evercore ISI analyst C.J. Muse wrote. This is "amplified by an inventory digestion which is expected to persist until mid-2019," he said. Analysts remain uncertain about the timing of a semiconductor recovery. Shares of Taiwan Semi have dropped 17.7% in the past 12 months, as the S&P 500 has fallen 6.7% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index has lost 13.4%.
, an Anglo-German chipmaker listed in Frankfurt whose power-management chip technology was recently licensed to Apple in a 600 million deal, fell 1% to €22.18 each. , which designs facial recognition sensors thought to be used in Apple's iPhones, fel 4.61% to €23.60 each while Apple shares were marked 0.77% lower to $153.74 each in New York. Apple's shock sales warning earlier this month, which it pegged to slowing demand in China, was echoed by its main rival Samsung, which said fourth quarter profits would likely come in at around 10.8 trillion Korean won ($9.67 billion), well shy of the market consensus of 13.2 trillion won, with sales falling 11% to 59 trillion won.
is sliding and is causing the shares of other semiconductor companies to slip along with it after a downbeat forecast of what lies ahead for the company, and likely the sector. were down about 2% before Thursday's opening bell after Taiwan Semiconductor officials voiced concern about the sharp slowdown in global smartphone demand, something Apple itself suggested in its pre-release earlier this month. "Moving into first quarter 2019, we anticipate our business will be dampened by the overall weakening of the macroeconomic outlook, mobile product seasonality and high levels of inventory in the semiconductor supply chain," Taiwan Semiconductor CFO Lora Ho told analysts in a conference call from the company's Hsinchu, Taiwan, headquarters.
reported fourth-quarter results largely in line with estimates. In the daily bar chart of TSM, below, we can see that prices have been under selling pressure for much of the past year and touched a new low for the move down earlier this month. Prices are below the declining 50-day moving average line and the bearish 200-day line.
Investing.com – Western Digital fell on Thursday, stifling gains in semiconductors after Wall Street turned bearish on the data-storage company on worries over upcoming earnings and guidance.