|Bid||241.54 x 1000|
|Ask||241.99 x 1000|
|Day's Range||244.51 - 247.40|
|52 Week Range||216.97 - 269.28|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||1.00|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.17%|
Broader Market Supported the Energy Portfolio(Continued from Prior Part)US equity indexesOn January 10–17, US equity indexes had the following correlations with US crude oil March futures:the S&P 500 (SPY): 95.5%the Dow Jones Industrial
In an effort to restore its economic relationship with the U.S., China offered to ramp imports from the region by more than $1 trillion over the next six years, according to a Friday Bloomberg report. The rate would slowly reduce its trade surplus and completely eliminate the imbalance by 2024. The conciliatory offer, if true, is meant to appease U.S. officials aggravated by what they perceive to be an unfair trade arrangement.
Broader Market Supported the Energy PortfolioOil pricesOn January 17, US crude oil March futures fell 0.5% and settled at $52.36 per barrel. Rising oil production in the United States and concerns surrounding global economic growth might have
Can Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Continue Outperforming Peers in 2019?(Continued from Prior Part)US steel productionDomestic steel production is one of the major demand drivers for Cleveland-Cliffs’ (CLF) iron ore pellets. Therefore, in this part,
Will Oil End the Week on a Lower Note?US crude oil So far this week, US crude oil February futures have risen 1.4%. However, at 11:42 AM EST on January 17, US crude oil prices had fallen $0.52 from their last closing level. Lately, bearish EIA
January BAML Survey: Fund Managers Bearish, but No Recession Yet(Continued from Prior Part)Trade war still investors’ top concernIn Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s January 2019 survey, trade war concerns remained the top tail risk cited by
Since saving for college is becoming increasingly important, 529 college saving plans allow for tax-free withdrawals when distributions are used for qualified education.
January BAML Survey: Fund Managers Bearish, but No Recession YetBAML survey and fund managersBAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) conducted a survey that polled 234 global investors with $645 billion in total assets under management between January
The EIA's Inventory Data Could Fail to Propel Oil PricesEIA inventory dataThe EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported a fall of 2.7 MMbbls (million barrels) in US crude oil inventories to 437.1 MMbbls in the week that ended on January
On Wednesday, Bespoke Investment Group put out a report saying that the S&P 500 is having a very rare comeback. After declining over 19% in the span of just three months, the S&P 500 has come roaring back and is now on pace for a 10% gain in just 10 trading days. Since World War II, there have only been 12 other declines of 15%+ within the span of three months that were followed immediately by a 10%+ gain in 10 trading days or less.
Bulls versus Bears: Who Will Rule the Stock Markets in 2019?(Continued from Prior Part)Citigroup-Cut S&P 500 targetCitigroup’s (C) Tobias Levkovich cut his forecast for the S&P 500 (SPY) to 2,850 from 3,100. The new target implies a 13.7%
Oil Traders: Goldman Sachs Expects a Slowdown(Continued from Prior Part)Oil inventories and their five-year averageIn the week ending January 4, US crude oil inventories were 8% higher than their five-year average—the same as the previous week.
Oil Traders: Goldman Sachs Expects a SlowdownOil pricesOn January 14, US crude oil February futures fell 2.1% and settled at $50.51 per barrel. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 0.2% on the same day. Until January 18, on the downside, the
Bulls versus Bears: Who Will Rule the Stock Markets in 2019?(Continued from Prior Part)Bank of America’s targetBank of America’s equity and quantitative strategist, Savita Subramanian, expects a decline in the S&P 500 (SPY) in
Most of the analysts’ predictions were wrong based on the stock market’s wild ride in 2018, especially during the fourth quarter. In January, the median of equity strategists’ predictions for 2018 was a value of 2,893 for the S&P 500 (SPY). The median implies that strategists overestimated the S&P 500’s year-end value by ~15%. In the fourth quarter, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA), and the NASDAQ Composite (QQQ) fell 14%, 11.8%, and 17%, respectively.
Energy's Performance Last Week—and What's on the Agenda This Week (Continued from Prior Part) ## US equity indexes Between January 4 and January 11, US equity indexes rose. The S&P Mid-Cap 400 (IVOO), the S&P 500 Index (SPY), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) rose 4.7%, 2.5%, and 2.4%, respectively. Energy stocks make up 5.1%, 5.9%, and 5.2% of these indexes, respectively. ## Oil, the broader market, and energy ETFs Last week, US crude oil February futures rose 7.6%, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 3.6%. XLE rose the fourth-most among sector-specific SPDR ETFs. In addition to oil’s rise, broader market indexes may have had a significant role in XLE’s rise. Equity indexes have recovered due to China-US trade talks. However, the factors we discussed in the previous article could be a concern for these equity indexes. Last week, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) rose 4.2%—the most among sector-specific SPDR ETFs. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) rose 0.7%—the least among sector-specific SPDR ETFs in the week that ended on January 11. All sector-specific SPDR ETFs rose last week. ## Energy ETFs Last week, major energy subsector ETFs’ performances were as follows: * The VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH) rose 7.8%. * The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) rose 6.2%. * The VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) rose 2.1%. * The Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) rose 1.9%. The broader market’s and oil prices’ rises may also have been behind these energy ETFs’ rises last week. Continue to Next Part Browse this series on Market Realist: * Part 1 - The China Factor Could Drag on Oil This Week * Part 3 - These Upstream and Oilfield Stocks Outperformed Energy Last Week * Part 4 - A Look at the Biggest Falls in Energy Last Week
What's Impacting Your Energy Portfolio Gain? (Continued from Prior Part) ## Oil’s implied volatility On January 10, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 40%, which was ~25% below its 15-day average. Usually, lower implied volatility might support oil prices. You can see the inverse relationship between oil prices and oil’s implied volatility in the following chart. Since reaching a 12-year low in February 2016, US crude oil active futures have risen ~100.6%. Crude oil’s implied volatility has fallen ~46.8% since February 11, 2016. ## Price forecast On January 11–18, US crude oil futures should close between $49.89 and $55.29 per barrel 68.0% of the time. The forecast is based on crude oil’s implied volatility of 40% and assumes a normal distribution of prices. On January 10, US crude oil February futures rose 0.4% and settled at $52.59 per barrel. The factors that we discussed in Part 1 might pull US crude oil close to this level. Any changes in oil could be a positive development for equity indexes like the S&P 500 Index (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA). The sentiments in the oil and equity markets are often related. In the previous part of this series, we analyzed the relationship between oil and the equity market. ## Impact on ETFs These price limits could be important for oil-tracking ETFs like the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO) and the United States 12-Month Oil ETF (USL). In the trailing week, US crude oil February futures rose 11.7%, UCO rose 23.5%, and USL rose 10.2%. Browse this series on Market Realist: * Part 1 - President Trump Might End Oil’s Gain * Part 2 - Wall Street’s Sentiments Boosted Energy ETFs * Part 3 - Broader Market Might Have Pushed Oil Higher