250.93 +0.02 (0.01%)
After hours: 4:30PM EST
|Bid||0.00 x 1000|
|Ask||0.00 x 100|
|Day's Range||249.67 - 255.29|
|52 Week Range||232.65 - 269.28|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||1.02|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.15%|
BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) conducted a survey that polled 225 global investors with $641 billion in total assets under management between November 2 and November 8.
The Fed has raised rates three times in 2018. The Fed appears to be on track to raise rates for the fourth time next month. On multiple occasions, President Trump has spoken against the Fed’s tightening.
As of November 12, US crude oil prices have fallen 27.1% from the multiyear closing high of $76.41 per barrel on October 3. Oversupply concerns have led the decline in oil prices. Based on a Reuters report, OPEC members and non-OPEC oil producers might develop a plan to reduce their oil output by up to 1.4 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in 2019. In the oil market report on November 14, the International Energy Agency expects global oil demand growth to rise by 1.3 MMbpd and 1.4 MMbpd in 2018 and 2019, respectively. A production cut of that magnitude might limit oil’s fall.
In the week ending on November 2, US crude oil inventories were 3% above their five-year average—one percentage point more than the previous week. Oil prices and the inventories spread usually move inversely, as you can see in the following chart. If the inventories spread expands more into the positive territory, it might drag down oil prices in the coming weeks. The inventories spread is the difference between inventories and their five-year average.
On November 12, US crude oil December futures fell 0.4% and settled at $59.93 per barrel—the lowest closing level for active US crude oil futures since February 13. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 2.1% on November 12. The S&P 500 (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) fell 2% and 2.3%, respectively. The fall in the broader market might have dragged energy stocks.
On November 2–9, US equity indexes ended in the green. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), the S&P 500 (SPY), and the S&P Mid-Cap 400 (IVOO) rose 2.8%, 2.1%, and 1.1%, respectively. Energy stocks form ~5.2%, 5.9%, and 5.1%, respectively, of these equity indexes.
Since the start of this year, there has been a severe fall in the prices of almost all commodities (COMT) like copper, nickel, lead, cobalt, and gold (GLD). Factors such as the stronger US dollar (UUP), higher interest rates, weakness in emerging markets, and increasing trade tensions have been the major reasons for the slump in commodities. The trade war has started taking its toll on China (FXI), which is a negative for commodities, as China is the mainstay for many commodity producers.
On November 2–9, US crude oil December futures fell 4.7% and closed at $60.19 per barrel on November 9—the lowest closing level for active US crude oil futures since March 3. US crude oil December futures fell due to rising oversupply concerns. Last week, US crude oil prices recorded the fifth consecutive weekly decline—the second-longest streak of weekly declines in 2018.
On November 8, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 30.8%—12.8% above its 15-day average. The inverse relationship between oil prices and oil’s implied volatility is illustrated in the following graph. Since reaching a 12-year low in February 2016, US crude oil active futures have risen 131.5%. Crude oil’s implied volatility has fallen ~59% since February 11, 2016.
Major U.S. indexes ticked higher on expected news from the polls and the Fed. Here are some levels to watch out for in the week ahead.
In addition to a shift in the House majority and the passage of a number of new ballot measures this week, investors got one more major curveball from Washington when President Donald Trump ordered U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions to step down from his position and selected Matthew Whitaker as his temporary replacement. The Mueller investigation appears to have advanced prior to the midterm elections, Allen said in a note, but Whitaker will likely immediately take steps to limit the scope and duration of the probe.
On November 1–8, US equity indexes had the following correlations with US crude oil December futures: the S&P Mid-Cap 400 (IVOO): 31% the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA): 22% the S&P 500 (SPY): 20.8%
On November 8, US crude oil prices were 20.6% below the almost four-year high closing level of $76.41 on October 3. On the same date, US crude oil prices entered a bear market.
PPI cranked up to +0.6% for the month of October ??? roughly double what analysts had been expecting, and the highest month-over-month increase in the last 6 years.
As we noted previously, steel stocks like AK Steel (AKS) and ArcelorMittal (MT) are trading with a year-to-date loss. Steel stocks have underperformed broader equity markets (DIA) in 2018 despite President Trump’s Section 232 tariffs. In this part, we’ll discuss the key reasons why bears love steel stocks.
On November 7, US crude oil December futures fell 0.9% and closed at $61.67 per barrel—the lowest closing level for active US crude oil futures since March 15. On the same day, US crude oil inventories rose by 5.8 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending November 2. The increase might have caused US crude oil’s fall apart from rising supply concerns. A Reuters poll indicated a rise of 2.43 MMbbls in US crude oil inventories.
China’s steel and aluminum overcapacity has received flak from its trading partners. Earlier this year, President Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in a bid to protect US manufacturers (DIA). In this part, we’ll discuss China’s October steel exports data in light of US tariffs.
Voting for Democrats was spectacular! A few weeks ago, we told investors that you really wanted to see the Democrats take the House. That way, we would get gridlock and a check on the president, maybe even some help with tariffs. Well, initially this looks to be right. The Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) are up 2% along with the S&P 500 (SPX), while the Nasdaq (QQQ) is up 2.5%. So far, so good.
Democrats didn’t get the blue wave they hoped for Tuesday, but they picked up enough votes to take the majority in the House of Representatives, with Republicans maintaining control of the Senate. A Democratic House could provide some resistance to President Donald Trump’s trade war tariffs on China. The potential for Democrats to pressure Trump to back down on China is theoretically good news for U.S. companies that rely on Chinese supply and demand.
An oft-repeated maxim is that the stock market hates uncertainty, and a major cause for uncertainty has been resolved, given that the U.S. midterm congressional elections are now behind us. In Tuesday's midterm vote, returns indicate that the Democrats won a majority in the House while the Republicans held their majority in the Senate. But the Yardeni Reseach study—and other studies—show that stocks have risen in the 12 months after every midterm election from 1954 through 2014, a span of six decades, without exception, and regardless of which party posted gains.
After cratering hard in recent months, Tesla Inc. ( TSLA) has picked up speed in just the last month, gaining more than 35%. UBS analyst Colin Langan argues that Tesla’s earnings received some “unexpected help” in the form of a decrease in the company’s warranty provision and a large inflow from government credits. The largest boost to Tesla’s profits came from the company’s sale of government credits that it earned through the production of clean energy products, such as its electric cars.
Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) and NASDAQ Composite index (QQQ) ended October with about 8.1% and 5.1% losses, respectively. As of November 5, the S&P 500 index was up 0.6% month-to-date while the Dow and NASDAQ Composite were up 0.8% and down 0.4%, respectively. On the upside, no major resistance level is visible below the key resistance range of 2,785–2,815.