|Bid||11.86 x 800|
|Ask||11.87 x 317700|
|Day's Range||11.88 - 11.92|
|52 Week Range||11.25 - 13.11|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||0.03|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.25%|
Ray Dalio, chair and chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, feels that stock investors aren’t prepared for the next bear market. According to CNBC, in a discussion at the Greenwich Economic Forum, Dalio said he doesn’t “think there’s much to protect investors” during a downturn. Ray Dalio also likes gold.
Goldman expects commodities to surge around 17% over the coming months. We have highlighted five ETFs which we think could be well positioned if Goldman prediction comes true.
Which Gold Miners Have Shown Upside Potential since Q3? AISC (all-in sustaining costs) is an encompassing measure that helps us compare gold miners’ performances. Barrick Gold (ABX) reported AISC of $785 per ounce and a cost of sales of $850 per ounce in the third quarter.
Ray Dalio, chair and chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, has maintained the fund’s stake in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the second-largest physical gold-backed ETF, the iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU). Bridgewater Associates kept its holdings at 3.91 million shares in GLD and 11.31 million shares in IAU in the third quarter, according to Fintel.
During the third quarter, gold’s price (GLD) fell ~5%, dipping below the psychologically important level of $1,200 per ounce it touched in August.
Could Gold Be the Best Bet amid Increased Economic Uncertainty? According to the World Gold Council (or WGC), central banks’ gold (SGOL) buying has hit the highest level in almost three years for the quarter ended September 2018. Central banks have been net buyers of gold since the beginning of the financial crisis of 2008.
Gold ETFs have seen renewed buying interest from investors in October on increased market volatility and the equity market sell-off. According to a report by the World Gold Council (or WGC), the holdings in gold-backed ETFs saw inflows of 16.5 tons in October to total 2,346 tons. This marked the first inflow in four months for gold ETFs.
Could Gold Be the Best Bet amid Increased Economic Uncertainty? In March this year, Goldman Sachs (GS) turned bullish on gold for the first time in the last five years. As reported by Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs’s (GS) analysts wrote, “While we think that the U.S. cycle still has room to run it doesn’t mean that markets will not worry about it coming to an end.” The analysts added, “Going forward, we expect market ‘fear’ of a U.S. recession to strengthen.
Combined, these are the most significant gatherings of institutional investors and gold companies in the world. As usual, we found some interesting discoveries and developments to follow up on with the smaller companies that attended the Precious Metals Summit. Fortunately, there was a heavy presence of corporate development teams from gold producers globally at the event.
Bank of America (or BofA) contends that gold prices (GLD) should surge over the next year as US budget deficit and trade war concerns start to have an impact on the US economy (SPY) (IVV). Bank of America expects gold prices (IAU) to average $1,350 per ounce in 2019 as the effect of US tax reforms wears off.
Amid a strong U.S. dollar and investors’ appetite for domestic equities, 2018 has been unkind to gold and the related gold exchange traded funds (ETFs). SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD), the world’s largest gold ETF by assets, is down more than 9% year-to-date.
Gold remains among investors' favorites owing to several of its virtues – it offers a hedge against inflation, has little correlation with the stock market, and offers growth potential even during uncertain economic conditions.
Gold investors typically tout several virtues of the yellow metal: It hedges against inflation, they say, it's an uncorrelated asset that doesn't move with the stock market and it can grow in value when national or even global uncertainty is high. Those features help build the bull case, which you can leverage via gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Gold admittedly hasn't given investors much to work with for years. After a decade-long run topped out in 2011 above $1,850 per ounce, prices slammed back to earth and have been stuck in a range between $1,100 and $1,300 since 2013. Still, some people look to gold investing to diversify their portfolios, and aggressive investors can try to squeeze profits out of short-term swing trades. We recommend that if you do try your hand at this commodity, you understand the ins and outs of investing in gold, make it a small portion (5%) of your portfolio and use ETFs, for several reasons, including liquidity, low expenses and ease of use. Here's an introduction to seven low-cost gold ETFs that offer varying types of exposure to the precious commodity. This list includes the most ubiquitous gold ETFs on the market - funds you typically can read about in just about any daily commodity wrap-up - as well as a few that aren't as well-covered by the financial media but might be better investments than their high-asset brethren. SEE ALSO: The 15 Best ETFs to Buy Right Now
A record number of fund managers in the BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) September survey believe that gold (IAU) is undervalued, trading at a 17-year low. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has fallen ~8.5% year-to-date and ~13% from its April peak. It’s usually considered a safe-haven asset in which investors take refuge in the event of uncertainty and risk. However, gold has not been able to draw safe-haven bids so far in 2018 since the strong US dollar (UUP) keeps weighing it down.
The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) reports the position of major players in the futures market through its COT (Commitment of Traders) report. According to the COT report for the week ended September 4, money managers resumed building their short positions in gold futures. The money managers increased their net short positions from 75,772 contracts to 82,722 contracts in the latest week.
The US CPI (consumer price index) for August rose 0.2% sequentially compared to the 0.3% growth that was expected by economists. In the 12 months through the end of August, the CPI rose 2.7%, lower than July’s 2.9% rise. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose 2.2% in the 12 months through August, also lower than July’s 2.4% rise.
In August, the dollar came under pressure due to President Trump’s criticism of the Fed’s interest rate hikes as well as political uncertainty in the United States. The most recent speech by Fed chair Jerome Powell was slightly dovish (TLT), which led to a further slump in the dollar and a surge in gold. Year-to-date, the US dollar has gained whenever trade tensions have escalated and has weakened when trade tensions looked to be easing.
The price of gold has been on the slide lately, falling more than 10% over the last 5 months as the dollar has rallied on bets of a continued strong U.S. economy. Nonetheless, the outlook is more positive for the rest of the year and next, with December gold futures currently holding above the key technical level of $1200 per share.
As reported by Morningstar, UBS strategist Joni Teves believes that the shorting of gold (GLD) “should ultimately be supportive” for the metal and allow “ample space for positions to be rebuilt ahead.” While UBS has lowered its expectations for gold prices in the third quarter, it kept the average for the full year unchanged. According to Business Insider, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (or BAML) chief investment strategist, Michael Harnett, says that gold prices (IAU) have weakened in 2018 along with emerging market (EEM) currencies as the US dollar (UUP) has strengthened while US interest rates (TLT) remain attractive. BAML expects gold prices to climb above $1,300 per ounce by the end of 2018.
The report comes out every Friday and shows open interest on the previous Tuesday. According to the COT report for the week ended August 24, detailing holdings as of August 21, money managers were net short on gold for the ninth straight week. This net short position in gold is unprecedented.
According to David Rosenberg, the chief economist of Gluskin Sheff, 14 economic reports in August thus far have missed expectations. Among those that have missed the expectations are home sales and Markit PMI (purchasing managers’ index). Rosenberg said in a tweet, “Here we have nearly 3 misses for every beat, and yet the bullish chatter on the economy shows no signs of abating.